Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Healdplace]

HOSPITAL DATA

Summary:



Another small daily fall of 23 but that is up on just 3 last Tuesday. Most places down and week to week the NW fall was pretty strong with a fall on every single day going from 203 to 159 (around 20%) suggesting the large regional case rise is not putting people into hospital in the area.

Patient numbers fell in the three nations too - now just 175 from all three of them added together.

So little change but mostly in the right direction.

There were 4338 in hospital in the NW in mid January at the peak - now at just 159. 6 September was the last time fewer were in hospital in the NW and 10 September last time fewer patients were on ventilators. Now 15 in NW rather than at the January peak when there was 417. These dates when last lower in the NW are still a little ahead of the UK average time table that is slipping backwards day by day towards August.


UK total:




Patients down to 1096 - it was 39, 248 at the peak on 18 Jan - (fall of 38, 152 in 113 days) :- lowest since 15 September

Ventilators down to 139 it was 4077 at the peak on 24 Jan - (fall of 3938 in 107 days) : lowest since 18 September


England only:-


ADMISSIONS:-

76 Covid admissions following 80, 77, 88, 96, 76, 98, 92 in the week before.

As you see daily Covid admission numbers in England well under 100 again.




PATIENTS:-

Patients down by 23 to 921 v 1093 last week :- lowest since 15 September

Peak was 34, 336 on 18 Jan (fall 33, 415 in 113 days)

Ventilators: Down 9 to 126 v 162 last week :- lowest since 19 September

Peak was 3736 on 24 Jan (fall 3610 in 107 days)



Regions:


Patient // Ventilators // change in past day to today and v last week


East down 5 to 67 v 92 // down 1 to 3 v 8

London Stays at 281 v 292 // down 5 to 54 v 69

Midlands down 2 to 185 v 214// stays at 21 v 25

NE & Yorks down 6 to 140 v 171// down 3 to 20 v 22

North West down 4 to 159 v 203 // down 1 to 15 v 24

South East down 1 to 63 v 82 // Stays at 8 v 9

South West down 5 to 26 v 39 // UP 1 to 5 v 5

 

[ayrshire_blue]

238 cases in Scotland today

7 of those 238 are in people aged 65+
37 are in the 45-64 bracket

Then spot the unvaccinated population

105 are in 25-44 bracket
87 in 0-24

(Realise this totals 236 and not 238, due to missing age data there's sometimes the odd case or two lacking in this data...Still, we get the picture)

 

[Blue and still suffering]

I have noticed a few anecdotal tweets from medical people in India saying that they and their colleagues who have been fully vaccinated are seemingly being protected against the virus with no recorded hospitalisations and experiencing mild symptoms if they do catch it.
How true that is I don't know but it is good news if true and perhaps more evidence that the vaccines are doing what they are supposed to do.

 

[unicorn]

HOSPITAL DATA


England only:-


ADMISSIONS:-

76 Covid admissions following 80, 77, 88, 96, 76, 98, 92 in the week before.

As you see daily Covid admission numbers in England well under 100 again.


PATIENTS:-

Patients down by 23 to 921 v 1093 last week :- lowest since 15 September

Thanks for posting this very reassuring data on such a great day. Only 76 admissions with Covid the key metric.

 

[Healdplace]

238 cases in Scotland today

7 of those 238 are in people aged 65+
37 are in the 45-64 bracket

Then spot the unvaccinated population

105 are in 25-44 bracket
87 in 0-24

(Realise this totals 236 and not 238, due to missing age data there's sometimes the odd case or two lacking in this data...Still, we get the picture)

Exactly the same thing happens with the N Ireland age ranges for tests I post every few days. But I never pointed it out before as I did not expect anyone to add them up! So thank you for explaining it. As with here it is usually only a couple across 600 or so weekly cases.

 

[Healdplace]

Just for interest here are the GM Weekly Pop Scores across the last 17 days to show how bad Bolton has been and how suddenly it flipped from the point when this began to happen (in the previous week it had fallen just 3 from 50).

Remember with Pop Scores (in essence cases per 100,000 POPulation) then the lower the better. Going up is bad. Going down is good. By how much up or down the better or worse depending on direction.


17 days ago (25 April) v Today (11 May)

BOLTON 47 v 193 UP Rather a lot!!!

BURY 30 v 20 DOWN a good fall to become best in GM

MANCHESTER 49 v 42 DOWN fairly steadily but up a little more recently

OLDHAM 37 v 28 DOWN has stayed very consistently in this range

ROCHDALE 34 v 50 UP Was stable like Oldham but has started to rise a bit in past few days.

SALFORD 35 v 29 DOWN After rising into the 40s it has been steadily falling since.

STOCKPORT 29 v 31 fell to best in GM at 20 but has risen over past week from top to mid table in a fortnight.

TAMESIDE 28 v 33 UP Has been steady in the 20s but a bit of a leap up today. May be a one off or a trend.

TRAFFORD 34 v 30 Rose up into the 50s in middle but in past few days has been steadily falling.

WIGAN 24 v 31 UP very consistent in the low to mid 20 but in past couple of days risen a bit.

 

[Marvin]

Bolton. A Kent II? At some point Covid becomes a mild illness de to vaccination and we will no longer care. Are we there yet, or are we so tired of caring?!

If a virus spreads and it causes only mild illness, does it matter?

 

[PannickAtTheDisco]

Bolton. A Kent II? At some point Covid becomes a mild illness de to vaccination and we will no longer care. Are we there yet, or are we so tired of caring?!

If a virus spreads and it causes only mild illness, does it matter?

The Notlob variant.

 

[shemnel]

Bolton. A Kent II? At some point Covid becomes a mild illness de to vaccination and we will no longer care. Are we there yet, or are we so tired of caring?!

If a virus spreads and it causes only mild illness, does it matter?

well, i had this exact conversation with someone last night.

when do we stop caring, or should that be when do we start to re-prioritise other issues in life.

Clearly there is much unknown about how the spread of this variant effects everything, like Kent did, so for me we're not quite there but if variant after variant goes through society and we maintain a very steady (low) number of cases, admissions and eventually deaths, then it's probably time to knock it all on the head?

I do wonder about the conversations had behind closed doors that the public are not privvy to, those conversations about accepting the baseline death/hospitalisation rates from covid that will be simply accepted as another risk factor in the population's health. i.e. when it looks extremely stable. 0 deaths a day? 10? dunno. A flu season might see >75 people a day die in the UK, so maybe if the current were numbers were known to be completely stable in a fully functioning society then we're there? Furthermore, i think caution will proceed into 2022 because if this summer is indeed successful and there isnt a serious flare up, that will need to be evidenced in winter conditions also.

 

[True_Blue69]

well, i had this exact conversation with someone last night.

when do we stop caring, or should that be when do we start to re-prioritise other issues in life.

Clearly there is much unknown about how the spread of this variant effects everything, like Kent did, so for me we're not quite there but if variant after variant goes through society and we maintain a very steady (low) number of cases, admissions and eventually deaths, then it's probably time to knock it all on the head?

I do wonder about the conversations had behind closed doors that the public are not privvy to, those conversations about accepting the baseline death/hospitalisation rates from covid that will be simply accepted as another risk factor in the population's health. i.e. when it looks extremely stable. 0 deaths a day? 10? dunno. A flu season might see >75 people a day die in the UK, so maybe if the current were numbers were known to be completely stable in a fully functioning society then we're there? Furthermore, i think caution will proceed into 2022 because if this summer is indeed successful and there isnt a serious flare up, that will need to be evidenced in winter conditions also.

The issue with using deaths as a barometer as to when we remove all restrictions is that there is a good chance that a lot of the people dying are doing so with covid, not because of it. The vaccine looks like it is doing its job so for me once we get passed June we should stick to the timeline and not look back.