Coronavirus (2021) thread

[roubaixtuesday]

Factor in that thanks to Bolton GM had more than one tenth of the entire total for the UK

Bolton has more than 5% of the entire caseload right now, and has had for a week or so, right?

Bolton skyrocketing is not seemingly translating into patients going into hospital.

Hopefully this continues, but probably too early to say if it is likely to:

Initial outbreak in younger, unvaxxed

Timelag: Transmission to older, more vulnerable.

Timelag: infection to positive test

Timelag: positive test to hospitalisation.

 

[ayrshire_blue]

6 of the 345 infections in Scotland are in +65 age group.

62 are in 45-64

117 are in 25-44
158 are in 0-24

Again still the extensively unvaccinated population picking up the huge majority of infections. This is good news but as Roubaixtuesday rightly says there may be a time lag of these increasing cases transferring to the older, vulnerable sections of society.

 

[Healdplace]

Bolton has more than 5% of the entire caseload right now, and has had for a week or so, right?




Hopefully this continues, but probably too early to say if it is likely to:

Initial outbreak in younger, unvaxxed

Timelag: Transmission to older, more vulnerable.

Timelag: infection to positive test

Timelag: positive test to hospitalisation.

Agreed and it is still rising every day.

Why I was so frustrated we saw it unfold in here days before anyone who should have noticed did notice by the looks of it.

So much easier to stem early than a week in.

I really hope that someone did notice and act early and just said nothing.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

6 of the 345 infections in Scotland are in +65 age group.

62 are in 45-64

117 are in 25-44
158 are in 0-24

Again still the extensively unvaccinated population picking up the huge majority of infections. This is good news but as Roubaixtuesday rightly says there may be a time lag of these increasing cases transferring to the older, vulnerable sections of society.

it shouldn't matter as they will be vaccinated.

 

[ayrshire_blue]

it shouldn't matter as they will be vaccinated.

It shouldn't, this will be the real world test on these shores I suppose.

 

[Healdplace]

Those wondering what happened to Zoe app today.

They shut data for a while to reconfigure the system as they felt it was under reporting now cases were rising,

It has just returned and it is not possible to compare with past data as all is different but they hope now the numbers are more correct for predicted cases and ongoing symptomatic cases.

Both are well up on what they were yesterday. And the NW looks more like a war zone. With a long swathe of infected areas from Blackpool (new one added) across three boroughs of GM now (Stockport and Oldham added to Bolton) and linked in a long chain from Oldham across the Pennines into Yorkshire with an even bigger spread of boroughs there showing red flags.

So we will have to start again to look at progress in the boroughs but will post a new state of play later.

 

[Healdplace]

Zoe App

Predicted Cases 2780 (almost double yesterday on old system and a few hundred up on the posted numbers today)

North West now worst in England (only Scotland higher) with a MUCH higher range of numbers than was.

And predicted symptomatic cases 14K up on yesterday to 31, 664.

(Predicted active cases / Estimated cases per million population locally)

BOLTON 1295 / 4571 In second tier of infection - only one in the NW

OLDHAM 263 / 1978 in fourth tier - there are five with the fifth white and not flagged up)

STOCKPORT 394 / 1364 in fourth tier (need to go below 1000 on second measure to exit)

Other GM Areas

BURY 29 / 156 - with Rochdale the two lowest in GM matching real world data

MANCHESTER 309 / 566 Up a but it seems but not close to entering tier 2

ROCHDALE 31 / 144 - like Bury doing well

SALFORD 168 / 666 - other than Oldham and Stockport closest to going red.

TAMESIDE 46 / 207 - Nearer Bury and Rochdale than trouble.

TRAFFORD 105 / 449 - Still quite high but not close to 1000 yet.

WIGAN 127 / 391 - watching brief here like Trafford especially so given proximity to Bolton.


Blackpool is on 178 / 2259 above all in GM bar Bolton.

In the large spread of Yorkshire Red Zone boroughs clustered together and cross infecting no doubt the worst is Wakefield on 1626 / 4750 - with Doncaster not far behind and Rotherham above all but Bolton in GM.

The worst in the UK right now is Melton Mowbray in the Midlands on 259 / 5122

Newport in Wales is its only watch area. And not far off Melton levels.

And East Dunbartonshire in Scotland above all but Bolton in GM and the worst there but large swathes of Scotland are in similar sized zones to Stockport.

 

[Healdplace]

Regional Cases Today



Cases show up or down on yesterday and the v number is versus 7 days ago.



SOUTH

East down 16 to 157 v 157 - identical wk to wk

London down 75 to 277 v 278 - almost the same here too

South East DOWN 104 to 129 v 194 - Huge fall on day and week to week in area with best hospital data today. 13 patients fewer and5 ventilators too.

South West down 36 to 79 v 129 - best numbers here in a while.







MIDLANDS

East down `2 to 174 v 162

West UP 49 to 213 v 194 - Both up slightly week to week



NORTH

North East down 25 to 76 v 105 - going in right direction and lowest numbers of the day.


Yorkshire down 73 to 242 v 337 (Doing better and now well behind the North West)




NORTH WEST down 2 to 400 v 320. Still rising wk to wk and top scorers in the UK


GREATER MANCHESTER

Down 13 day to day to 247.

Up 72 week to week. Nearly all of the NW rise of 80.

No prizes for guessing where nearly all that 72 came from.

 

[KennyG]

Regional Cases Today



Cases show up or down on yesterday and the v number is versus 7 days ago.



SOUTH

East down 16 to 157 v 157 - identical wk to wk

London down 75 to 277 v 278 - almost the same here too

South East DOWN 104 to 129 v 194 - Huge fall on day and week to week in area with best hospital data today. 13 patients fewer and5 ventilators too.

South West down 36 to 79 v 129 - best numbers here in a while.







MIDLANDS

East down `2 to 174 v 162

West UP 49 to 213 v 194 - Both up slightly week to week



NORTH

North East down 25 to 76 v 105 - going in right direction and lowest numbers of the day.


Yorkshire down 73 to 242 v 337 (Doing better and now well behind the North West)




NORTH WEST down 2 to 400 v 320. Still rising wk to wk and top scorers in the UK


GREATER MANCHESTER

Down 13 day to day to 247.

Up 72 week to week. Nearly all of the NW rise of 80.

No prizes for guessing where nearly all that 72 came from.

Is this the end of the beginning, especially if the Indian variant ignores the vaccine?

 

[Healdplace]

Greater Manchester Cases


247 cases today - down 13 on yesterday. From 400 North West cases.




Bolton - unfortunately another rise - of only 8 today - to 124 - up by 67 on last week. Slightly lower than yesterday's 72. Pop score rise today was 43 - biggest yet and most by anyone in GM for months


Manchester up 1 to 36 which is up 2 from last week. Eight of the last 9 numbers here have been in the 30s. No sign of big number rise in the big city happily. Still a very long way behind Bolton. Pop score rise here was 6 versus 43 for Bolton meaning to match Bolton's numbers Manchester would need around 260 cases.


Wigan down 4 on day to 18 - which is up 3 wk to wk.

Stockport also on 18 which is down 1 on day and same as last week.

Salford up 6 to 13 which is down 5 on last wk.

Rochdale down 1 on 10 - which is down 8 week to week.



Meaning that the other 4 boroughs stay in single figures today:


Trafford down 2 to 8 - down 3 wk to wk.

Oldham up 3 to 8 also - which is 1 down wk to wk.

Tameside after that rather odd and way from normal 24 yesterday plunge to just 7 which is up 1 on last week.


And top of the table again - who else:-


Bury down 2 to 5 which is up 1 wk to wk.




Weekly total cases:-

Bolton tops 600 weekly cases approaching treble those at Manchester and 15 times Bury - still easily in the lea#d.

But weekly numbers in several boroughs are rising. Now four over 100 and Stockport close to making it five.

Bury 40, Oldham 64, Trafford 69, Tameside 77, Salford 79. Stockport 93, Wigan 105, Rochdale 112, Manchester 232, Bolton 623.