It's an odd one because as soon as the variant has been detected in an area they begin surge testing which must be treated differently from PCR testing. The reason why is vaccinated people may test positive in a surge area whereas how many people are ill enough to present for PCR tests, virtually no-one and daily PCR positive cases are flat.
The variant may well be more transmissible but we need to move away from obsessing over cases and move towards the real time data available on moderate/severe illness and hospitalisations which is key. We'll know soon if the vaccines are working because if they aren't then hospitalisations will rise any day now in surge areas.
A 3rd wave can only be confirmed if there is a rise in PCR positive cases and a rise in COVID hospitalisations but so far neither is happening.