Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Healdplace]

Total cases from the 3 nations without England are 3 wks v 2 wks v last wk v TODAY:-

1729 v 4990 v 6467 v 6262 TODAY

 

[Healdplace]

Could be that Scotland managed to lock down sufficiently just before the new variant could take hold; restricting travel in from England may have helped suppress its movement.
Might also mean that it is only working its way through the community more slowly, which could lead to problems arising later.

This new variant is very transmissible in urban areas. England is packed with these. Scotland and Ireland less so and more spread out. That will not entirely protect but will help.

But Nicola Sturgeon said yesterday half of cases in Scotland are the new strain. Akin to GM (25% at last report - though climbing weekly) but more than Yorkshire (under 10%) and way under much of the south where it is around 75%.

This takes off in conurbations - see Wales where the densely packed valleys got it first. But it gets everywhere eventually, Wales today have warned that it is now rising fast in North Wales including Denbighshire which has been pretty low in the past few months.

The % of the new strain in an area is almost directly proportional to their ranking on the league table of cases over the past 7 days.

NW was behind the SW as second best 3 weeks ago. And about to take over as it was falling and SW rising.

The new variant has hit both and SW is now shooting up the list despite being the smallest England region and being fairly rural. And NW has gone up even more whilst Yorkshire has overtaken them both to be in top spot.

Everywhere is rising now though. Yorkshire though still seem to be getting away with it the most so far. And reflect what the rest of the UK might have been like now IF we had acted swiftly to peg this back.

But bar building a wall and keeping everyone out Yorkshire will get there too. Just last in and last out. Hopefully the vaccine stopping them ever getting to a peak.

GM is provably not far behind Yorkshire in this same optimistic scenario.

How much is directly linked to the percentage present of the new strain.

Unchecked about 80% of Britain would catch this in a month or so.

 

[twosips]

So total deaths without England out of hospital is 831.

Last week it was 556. And became 981 after all settings England added.

Hence my fear we will top 1000 today.

3 wks v 2 wk v last wk v today the deaths without out of hospital from England were:-

445 v 535 v 556 v 831 TODAY

Jesus christ that's awful. A truly horrible leap.

 

[Healdplace]

Jesus christ that's awful. A truly horrible leap.

It is but Tuesday & Wednesday is a big catch up day every week because of registrations not occurring over the weekend.

Especially with out of hospital deaths.

And the long Bank Holiday weekend makes that worse.

So these are not completely representative. And things will settle down from here on.

But there is no doubt that deaths are going up in England hospitals day to day and I posted data about that yesterday.

This is showing that almost every day in the past ten or so deaths have bee over 400. We only had one or two over 300 in the previous 6 weeks.

We may yet have a 500 day death in England hospitals over the coming week or so.

Unfortunately lockdown and the vaccine roll out will only impact death numbers in a few weeks as the ones coming up over coming days are based on cases whilst we sat waiting to make up our minds whether to have a nice Christmas.

 

[Healdplace]

We have topped 30,000 in UK hospitals today by the way.

We never got near there in the first wave.

Another reason that even though we are saving more of these lives proportionally than in April deaths will still rise.

A lower percentage of more people can still become a higher number overall.

Lockdown should stop us quite getting there.

But worse is to come because we waited far too long and acted disjointedly.

As so many in here have been warning for weeks.

 

[squirtyflower]

Hospital capacity is the main reason why we can't just allow everyone to do what they want until every group has received the vaccine. The reason why is whilst the younger (age <50) population generally won't die many are still hospitalised.

It's a fact that the majority of people admitted to hospital are not in the most vulnerable groups, they'll survive but they'll still need care. Many of these people won't receive the vaccination until the summer.

If we can vaccinate the whole population by autumn then indeed we can then do whatever we want but that requires a very high vaccination rate, one which we are miles off yet.

There's a calculator below which estimates when you'll get it based upon a more likely average vaccination rate. At 32 the earliest I'll get it is July running possibly into October where I wouldn't get the second dose until near Xmas.

Vaccine Queue Calculator for the UK

The vaccine queue calculator for the UK estimates where you are in the queue to get your COVID vaccine based on your age, health, and job.

www.omnicalculator.com

If the government can get rates upto 2 million as claimed then indeed we'll be back to normal by late summer.

I’ve moved up three months since last time I checked.

 

[mancity1]

Another one who is blinkered by poor science. There are not 710k killed by flu each year. The official stats show on average 11k die from flu each year and that includes the winter months of which Covid has only been present for one month of winter so far. I have mentioned this fact and provided references twice before on here so not doing it again. Please stop spreading misinformation.

Worldwide according to the WHO.

We had 11k die from influenza in 2017 in Australia alone.

Of course death from respiratory illness can come in many forms , influenza can shit down lung function and lead to organ failure particularly in the elderly.

Covid has accelerated the death of many an elderly individual especially those with dementia and diabetes and the list goes on.

Its difficult to ascertain how many deaths are from covid or with covid even with a forensic and detailed autopsy.

I would think those who have tested positive in countries with modern heath systems would err on the side if positive and you pass way its from covid as for those who don't its anybody's guess.

Many more than the official stats you refer to have had covid without it being recorded I can assure of that even in Great Britain and by many I mean millions.

Don't get me wrong this is a deadly disease and has killed to date around 0.5 to O.75 per cent of those who obtain it.

But so is cancer of most forms especially aggressive ones and heart disease and diabetes to name a few even more so.

 

[Healdplace]

I’ve moved up three months since last time I checked.

Me too. I have moved up so much because I am under 70 that I will at this rate probably be over 70 before I get it because I was under 70 when they calculated.

You have got to laugh.

 

[kaz7]

Worldwide according to the WHO.

We had 11k die from influenza in 2017 in Australia alone.

Of course death from respiratory illness can come in many forms , influenza can shit down lung function and lead to organ failure particularly in the elderly.

Covid has accelerated the death of many an elderly individual especially those with dementia and diabetes and the list goes on.

Its difficult to ascertain how many deaths are from covid or with covid even with a forensic and detailed autopsy.

I would think those who have tested positive in countries with modern heath systems would err on the side if positive and you pass way its from covid as for those who don't its anybody's guess.

Many more than the official stats you refer to have had covid without it being recorded I can assure of that even in Great Britain and by many I mean millions.

Don't get me wrong this is a deadly disease and has killed to date around 0.5 to O.75 per cent of those who obtain it.

But so is cancer of most forms especially aggressive ones and heart disease and diabetes to name a few even more so.

I would have thought there would be no deniers who compare it to flu left in the world , your country has not and is not suffering like the uk

 

[ayrshire_blue]

If you and your wife are not vulnerable I'd say they are better off going to Nursery. Although there is more chance of you/them picking it up from there, grandparents are the most likely to be severely ill from it.

That was my thinking too. I'm hoping they'll find evidence soon to say that transmission is still low from the very young to adults but until that's time I'd feel on edge with them spending too much time together, particularly indoors.