Coronavirus (2021) thread

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johnnytapia said:
We’d had a good run at my school, a few months with no cases then ping ping ping, 3 classes, 90 kids, a third of the school all now isolating for ten days. They absolutely have to have a plan in place for September whereby we can ensure only the index case spends that time out and the rest can test themselves back into school. 70% of our staff are double jabbed, 95% at least one jab. The deleterious effect of missing so much school can’t continue.
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I do agree, but I wouldn’t worry about school being missed too much.

Before 1988 there was no National Curriculum and schools just taught what they thought was best, with some schools teaching curriculums vastly or even wholly different to other schools. People were starting Level 3 and Further courses having been taught barely any or none of the course they were entering, and while that’s not preferable it’s not the end of the world. I did an A-level (Sport) that I didn’t do at GCSE, and it was my best A-level grade; and in my third year at uni I picked up some units in a subject (Business) that I’d not done at GCSE nor A-level and they were my best grades at uni.

Of course, I’m not saying don’t worry at all because there will certainly be an impact, but the emphasis on how much impact that missing school-time will have has been exaggerated a bit … and that’s coming from an Exams Officer!

We noticed that our Year 11 and 13s came back from lockdowns with a greater work ethic than we’d seen from previous year groups and that will do them good for their future. I work at a school that’s not been out of the top 10% most deprived catchment schools in the country in the dozen years I’ve worked there and we’ve never seen so many kids appreciate their education as much as we have in the last 18 months. It might be a bit of a wake up call (that was needed!) for the nation when it comes to education.

Also, it will have taught them ways to research, revise and learn independently that they may never have been afforded at school, which will do some good for those who take on degrees and higher. Unis sometimes find children who were home schooled have better research and independent study skills than those who attended school, and research and independent study are Kings at degree and higher levels.

So there are some positives to take.

I think the greatest impact will be on the youngest school age groups. Those just starting to learn to read; but they have years to catch up to where they need to be. It’ll just take some tweaking on how they’re taught.
 
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Tim of the Oak said:
Partly because of the variant and partly because some people in Bolton and other locations wouldn’t take the vaccine when offered it. Reduced compliance with the rules has also contributed to the 21st June easings being put back.

I hope the Government maintains some momentum to support business by enabling increased attendance at weddings etc.
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The Bolton cluster formed not because people in Bolton had unusually low levels of immunity/vaccination, but because a new much more transmissible strain entered their community.

It's possible too that it is now better able to spread through children although I am not certain about this. The age-related heat maps show a shift to younger age groups that but is that a reporting effect due to directed surge testing or is it an underlying change?

I agree there is fatigue and there are differences in vaccine coverage but these are not major factors in the course of the epidemic. It's completely characterisable by viral evolution.

I think the science lobby want to slow down the epidemic in order to slow down viral evolution but imo we'll end up in the same place whichever way we go because we can't vaccinate children through whom it seems to be spreading. This spike ends when there is sufficient immunity in the 4 - 25 year olds.

A pity the UK doesn't have the vaccine supply to quickly vaccinate U25s. Nothing to be done about that.
 
Marvin said:
It's possible too that it is now better able to spread through children although I am not certain about this. The age-related heat maps show a shift to younger age groups that but


is that a reporting effect due to directed surge testing or is it an underlying change?
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It is not a reporting effect. It is real.

I have posted regularly from before the first vaccination and as it has developed lots of data in here on the age range of who is catching Covid.

The data is very clear. The age ranges have shifted markedly over the past 6 months everywhere the data is available.

Not just the UK Gov heat maps - that are a fairly new addition but a great visual way to show this as I have said a few times in recent months.

But also in the data supplied daily by other nations. Ayrshire posts it daily here from Scotland. I post it daily or every few days from N Ireland based on their past 7 days cases age ranges testing positive.

Every one of these things tells the same story.

In the last wave - pre vaccination programme - as well as the previous waves - we had 40 K in hospital 4000 on ventilators and 1000 dying a day at the peak BECAUSE the people testing positive skewed towards the older age ranges.

Likely younger people were catching it but not getting sick enough to know or seek out testing as much so that skewed things a little.

But the reality is the numbers changed, at first slowly, but then as the pace of vaccination accelerated, grew faster and you could literally watch if you read back months in this thread and see how they radically a ltered the dynamic we now see.

Very obviousy the one factor triggering this was that the vaccinations which coincide entirely with this alteration - and started with the oldest / most vulnerable and have worked downwards in age to the 20s now.

This is why these numbers have shifted so radically from the wave in January to the one now.

Cases are rising like then but patients, ventilators and deaths - whilst rising in tandemas they are bound to do - are not doing so to anything like the same degree. It looks all but certain even if we get up to 60,000 cases a day as we did in January we will not see numbers anything like we had in the hospital data then. Though they might still rise enough to be a moderate problem for the NHS especially at the point they are needing to catch up on other urgent care that has been on hold for a year,

The age dynamic shift from 20% catching it under 40 six months back to 80% now catching it and from 25% catching it in the vulnerable over 60s down now to under 5% is why we have a radically different wave now.

The case numbers still matter but they matter much less because they are only translating into modest rises in hospital numbers.

We should nt get complacent. This could change, And 60,000 cases would still put strain on the NHS regardless. And more seriously a vaccine evading variant is more than possible if we let it in by complacency or sheer frustration to just get on with it. That would put us back almost to the start.

Things are looking very good right now in the medium term if we navigate through this uptick carefully and not jump a few weeks early into the melting pot.

Get everyone vaccinated over coming weeks we will be as safe as we are ever going to be. Just hold the faith for that. A few weeks atop the past year can be managed.
 
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Psychedelic Casual said:

Findings​

The number of suicides in April-October 2020, after the first lockdown began, was 121•3 per month, compared to 125•7 per month in January-March 2020 (-4%; 95% CI-19% to 13%, p = 0•59). Incidence rate ratios did not show a significant rise in individual months after lockdown began and were not raised during the 2-month lockdown period April-May 2020 (IRR: 1•01 [0•81–1•25]) or the 5-month period after the easing of lockdown, June-October 2020 (0•94 [0•81–1•09]). Comparison of the suicide rates after lockdown began in 2020 for the same months in selected areas in 2019 showed no difference.

www.google.co.uk

Covid-19: Suicide rate 'did not rise during first lockdown'

More people were seeking mental health support, but data shows no increase in suicides in England.
www.google.co.uk www.google.co.uk

It’ll probably be another 6 months before studies for this early-year’s data come out.
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Ever wondered why so many traffic jams on the m60 these days, the majority are people trying to jump mate, just because they don’t succeed doesn’t mean people aren’t attempting it.
 
However, the number one priority for when we can fully open up is to NOT let this same thing happen all over again in the deja vu way that we seem to have progressed over the past year.

An incoming new variant that sets us backward is the big threat and will stay that way until we have vaccinated the planet not just ourelves. As we cannot just stay locked down until 2023 we need a better strategy.

We have to stop that taking hold here much much better than we have on this occasion. That needs urgently addressing and plans drawn up to ensure that it does not.
 
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