Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Healdplace]

Zoe App update:

The escalation keeps going up up and away.

Daily cases 14, 416 - which at 795 is the lowest increase in a day in some time. So goodish news.

Ongoing symptomatic cases up 11, 343 in the day to 152, 273 - though that is also a modest drop in the increase

North West is still the highest numbers above Scotland with a predicted POP score range of 369 - 829.

That - btw - is higher at the lower end than every borough in GM as of last night. Bolton is on 315 and Salford 301. Though not sure the Zoe and Gov system is entirely compatible.

 

[johnnytapia]

I do agree, but I wouldn’t worry about school being missed too much.

Before 1988 there was no National Curriculum and schools just taught what they thought was best, with some schools teaching curriculums vastly or even wholly different to other schools. People were starting Level 3 and Further courses having been taught barely any or none of the course they were entering, and while that’s not preferable it’s not the end of the world. I did an A-level (Sport) that I didn’t do at GCSE, and it was my best A-level grade; and in my third year at uni I picked up some units in a subject (Business) that I’d not done at GCSE nor A-level and they were my best grades at uni.

Of course, I’m not saying don’t worry at all because there will certainly be an impact, but the emphasis on how much impact that missing school-time will have has been exaggerated a bit … and that’s coming from an Exams Officer!

We noticed that our Year 11 and 13s came back from lockdowns with a greater work ethic than we’d seen from previous year groups and that will do them good for their future. I work at a school that’s not been out of the top 10% most deprived catchment schools in the country in the dozen years I’ve worked there and we’ve never seen so many kids appreciate their education as much as we have in the last 18 months. It might be a bit of a wake up call (that was needed!) for the nation when it comes to education.

Also, it will have taught them ways to research, revise and learn independently that they may never have been afforded at school, which will do some good for those who take on degrees and higher. Unis sometimes find children who were home schooled have better research and independent study skills than those who attended school, and research and independent study are Kings at degree and higher levels.

So there are some positives to take.

I think the greatest impact will be on the youngest school age groups. Those just starting to learn to read; but they have years to catch up to where they need to be. It’ll just take some tweaking on how they’re taught.

Our youngest children, aged 4 and 5 have come back massively impacted. They’ve missed up to a third of their education. It’s the social aspect too, all that time away from peers. And all that time missing out on social norms: turn taking, playing, chatting, laughing. I do think they’ll “catch up” but it will be a long process and throwing billions at it isn’t the only answer; we need to do this properly, over time, not think that getting kids to do 7 days a week learning is the answer. But I fear the rhetoric from ofsted et al will be different. Anyway, wondering off topic, let’s hope all our kids can look back soon on this as a blip.

 

[Healdplace]

GM Zoe data

Bolton 23, 865

Bury 6772

Manchester 10. 201

Oldham 602

Rochdale 20, 511

Salford 12, 331

Stockport 6041

Tameside 3655

Trafford 5202

Wigan 2287


As you can see Oldham doing spectacularly well, pretty much everywhere well up but Bolton, Manchester and Salford especially so,

Bury and Stockport highest of the second tier.

Trafford is showing signs of stabilising both here and in reported daily cases.

Wigan not as high as recent cases in real data might infer it should be.

Ribble Valley is the highest normal number in NW now at 8045

Much of Yorkshire - in fact literally from Huddersfield to the coast between Bridlington and Hull is ALL now on watch, Recent big uptick here.

Much the same is true in and around London. Cases are spreading there widely now.

In the North there is a coast to coast run from Workington to Newcastle/Sunderland ALL in pink.

And in Scotland it is pretty much just the northern islands and highlands NOT on watch!

There has been a dramatic change from a few outbreak spots to all but everywhere now having multiple watch areas. Even south Wales has areas covered now too.

This is no longer a NW focused outbreak.

Though odds are - being first in - NW will be the first to turn this around hopefully.

 

[johnnytapia]

However, the number one priority for when we can fully open up is to NOT let this same thing happen all over again in the deja vu way that we seem to have progressed over the past year.

An incoming new variant that sets us backward is the big threat and will stay that way until we have vaccinated the planet not just ourelves. As we cannot just stay locked down until 2023 we need a better strategy.

We have to stop that taking hold here much much better than we have on this occasion. That needs urgently addressing and plans drawn up to ensure that it does not.

If only we were an island

 

[ctwrd]

yes at work in a meeting. A foolish one.

A bit like the g7 yesterday

 

[Healdplace]

If only we were an island

I know that looks like a way to defend against variants but there is a huge difference between an island like Malta where people fly to and from but not via. Or New Zealand and Australia which are destinations that are so remote from everywhere else and not layovers to transit a continent.

The UK is an island group - both England & Scotland and Ireland as a whole - where layovers in international travel are far more common. We could stop it but it would be at a huge cost long term. So never a simple decision as it is in other places that have done this well.

So it is much much harder to patrol borders here than in the majority of other isolated islands. Just look at how many arrive here illegally by row boat every week. Bit easier to row 30 miles than 1000.

We have to do better at specific targets but closing off our borders is impossible even for the things we have to import. We only survived the war because US ships brought things here defying the U Boats to do so. No way could we have survived self sufficiently for long. Had we just existed as an island on our own then World War Two would have been 1939 - 1941 and World War three would have probably then happened later.

I mean you ban all flights and they will still get here by train. That is not going to happen in New Zealand.

Yes, we have to do more but it is not just a case of we are an island so just lock down the borders.

 

[ayrshire_blue]

1030 infections in Scotland today

25 of them are in people over 65.
179 in people 45-64

345 in 25-44
470 in 0-24

As I said the other day, the numbers of older folks being infected were consistently in low single digits only 2-3 weeks ago. The numbers are still relatively low, but as cases rise so will that 25 from today. I realise not all of them will need hospital treatment or ultimately be am ICU or death, but the more the figure rises the more will be included in those latter categories sadly.

It's why my opinion is that it's best to try and keep case numbers as low as possible until we're done with the vaccination programme or as near to as possible. The numbers amongst future hospital brackets will come from a mixture of age categories.

***************

2 deaths

1 aged 85+
1 aged 75-84

*****************

18k first doses
27k second doses

After a slow but steady rise, these vaccination numbers are on a slow but steady decline again. Probably to do with the slow supply which was mentioned yesterday.

 

[Healdplace]

Scotland data

2 deaths - was 1 last week

1030 cases - wa 860 last week

4.1% positivity

There is still an impact from the data lag reported yesterdy.

So bad as this seems there are hints of a slowing down in Scotland.

 

[Healdplace]

As you see Ayrshire's Scottish data again shows the same pattern as in N Ireland and England.

Those catching this are MUCH younger than they were in the last wave. And symptoms are reportedly much milder - usually more like a cold than the Covid we knew. Indeed most reportedly have no idea they have Covid when tested.

So case numbers are presently far less concering than they once were though not to the point we can ignore them altogether if they keep going up.

Realistically 1000 cases in the UK today given the new dynamics is akin to maybe 4000 cases under the old normal.

 

[ayrshire_blue]

Scotland data

2 deaths - was 1 last week

1030 cases - wa 860 last week

4.1% positivity

There is still an impact from the data lag reported yesterdy.

So bad as this seems there are hints of a slowing down in Scotland.

I read about the lag as well but I'm struggling to interpret it. Does it mean that these figures (I believe from Glasgow) are being reported today and yesterday are artificially low and they'll be caught up (some time next week most likely) or that these numbers today are higher due to a previous delay?

Obviously hoping it's the second of those but for whatever reason I can't get my head around what it means.