Coronavirus (2021) thread

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More 'made up numbers'.....

Zoe App Predicted cases 19, 839 - up 718 in 24 hours.

Ongoing symptomatic cases 250, 392 - up 8200 - also up on the rises over the weekend.

These are bigger rises than past few days, sadly. But neither of the above growing exponentionally which is good.


Scotland and North West both edged up only slightly and much as yesterday as the two highest in UK.

But London and Midlands have risen more up into the darker pinks.

In Greater Manchester

Manchester top on 14, 696 predicted

Trafford on 12, 568

Tameside on 11, 368

Oldham on 10, 147

Bury on 7387, Salford 7009, Wigan 5014, Bolton 4388, Stockport 1999 and Rochdale 1219

Liverpool is the highrest in England now (and I think the UK) on 18, 088. Though Preston up on 14, 886 above Manchester now.
 
England hospital deaths:

11 with 6 from North West - last week was 16 with 9 NW - week before 6 with 1.....possibly a little spark of hope. We will see.

Certainly could have been worse.
 
Healdplace said:
Scotland data:

SADLY ANOTHER ALL TIME HIGHEST EVER CASES HERE JUST TOPPING YESTERDAY'S BY 30

5 deaths - was 4 last week

2999 cases - was 1317 last week

7.7% positivity - was 4.6% last week

177 patients - up 7 in day - was 140 last week

17 ventilated icu - down 1 in day - was 12 last week
Click to expand...
It genuinely does not bear thinking about if we didnt have the vaccines with these numbers. A modern day miracle.
 
England hospital deaths: - More detail

Regions:- East 1. London 0, Midlands 0, NE & Yorkshire 3 North West 6, South East 1, South West 0

The NW 6 were 3 in Lancashire (Preston etc), 2 in Manchester and 1 in Pennine Acute (Oldham/Rochdale etc)

1 death aged 20 - 39, 2 deaths aged 40 - 59, 6 deaths aged 60 - 79 and 2 deaths ages over 80.


No deaths were recorded today from yesterday. 5 were from 22 Jun (total now 6 after 2 days), 3 added for 21 Jun (total now 8 after 3 days) and 1 added to 20 Jun (total now 12 after 4 days). The others were 6 and 10 days ago.

With 12 the 20 Jun is now the highest death number after up to 5 days in England hospitals since 12 on 11 May.

The death numbers are edging upward slightly - that is certain. But they are not showing any dramatic increase as of yet and the NW is now contributing at least 50% of them every day.

Given the very high case numbers in the past month in the NW these death numbers are not really shooting up much.

There is a lag as deaths will always be the last measure to increase so we are seeing the result of cases from maybe 3 weeks ago NOT the most recent big escalations.

So we are bound to see the NW numbers edge up a bit and other regions start to do so now their cases are rising.

But there is good reason to think the numbers are not going to increase exponentionally based on the early data we have so far.

The link between cases and deaths is all but broken and is most certainly severely mitigated.
 
Northern Ireland data:

Could be worse here happily. That Irish Sea sure helped slow this down. Hopefully long enough to get ahead,

0 deaths - was 0 last week

198 cases - was 179 last week

6.6% positivity - was 7.4% last wk - first fall anywhere in a while.

3 care home outbreaks - was 3 yesterday and last week

1178 weekly cases - was 1143 yesterday & 847 last week

18 patients - was 17 yesterday & 16 last week

Ventilated 0 - was 0 yesterday & last week.
 
N Ireland past 7 days total cases by age range:

0 - 19 (430) 36.6%

20 - 39 (473) 40.2%

40 - 59 (226) 19.2%

60 - 79 (44) 3.7%

80 PLUS (4) 0.3%


Another day, same story - only 1 in 25 of the most vulnerable (over 60 are catching Covid and more than three quarters under 40 are. Less vaccinated and less vulnerable.

Put these together and you get what we see - many more cases but hardly any more deaths or serious illness stressing out hospitals.

This data is why despite what look like fast rising case numbers we may still open up mid July. Because the link between cases, hospitals and death that was so clear and dangerous in past waves has been visibly shattered by the vaccines.

Sorry in advance for posting this 'bullshit' or is it only defined as being that here if it is numbers that are not liked?
 
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grunge said:
Even so those models would have been way off as they were based on the original strain, Not the Delta strain with a doubled r0 and being twice as likely to put you in the hospital ( scotish study from a week or so ago ).
Click to expand...
and the key factor which is a huge reduction from 1-2% case fatality to 0.1-0.2% with the delta variant from the PHE data
 
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