Coronavirus (2021) thread

[BlueAnorak]

The actual answer to that question is probably:
1. When sufficient over 45s have been double vaccinated for 3 weeks. and
2. When hospitalisations are proven not to overwhelm the NHS.
The mortality risk at that point will be lower than for non flu circulating viruses that trigger pneumonia in older folks.
The data is looking rather good at the moment for July 19th lifting.
Cases are irrelevant. Only serious illness and deaths matter.

Indeed, the reality is we really do need as many children as possible to catch it, as they would be very vulnerable to a variant that causes more serious illness.

 

[Tim of the Oak]

FWIW, I see New Zealand still haven’t had a case of Covid being caught in the community since 28th February. They are allowing some international travel because their men’s cricket team became World Champions (in Southampton) yesterday.

The Kiwis are remaining vigilant and keeping an eye on the new Covid cases in Oz.

 

[feelymcfeel]

Is there any data avaikable on number of comorbidities with covid related fatalities? I read somewhere the average covid death in the US has 4. Thats a lot of serious health problems.

 

[SPIDERBOY]

Indeed, the reality is we really do need as many children as possible to catch it, as they would be very vulnerable to a variant that causes more serious illness.

Have you just replied to your own post?

 

[andyhinch]

FWIW, I see New Zealand still haven’t had a case of Covid being caught in the community since 28th February. They are allowing some international travel because their men’s cricket team became World Champions (in Southampton) yesterday.

The Kiwis are remaining vigilant and keeping an eye on the new Covid cases in Oz.

Yeah but they’re a island so can’t really compare ;-)

 

[BerkshireBlue]

Is there any data avaikable on number of comorbidities with covid related fatalities? I read somewhere the average covid death in the US has 4. Thats a lot of serious health problems.

not on the actual number of comorbidities but there is data on the presence of one and the detail of it

see the weekly download file in this link

Statistics » COVID-19 Daily Deaths

Health and high quality care for all, <br />now and for future generations

www.england.nhs.uk

 

[Gremlin]

FWIW, I see New Zealand still haven’t had a case of Covid being caught in the community since 28th February. They are allowing some international travel because their men’s cricket team became World Champions (in Southampton) yesterday.

The Kiwis are remaining vigilant and keeping an eye on the new Covid cases in Oz.

At some stage they are going to have to open up as you can't have closed borders forever (unless you are North Korea). Presumably after they have vaccinated the whole population but, as vaccinations are not 100% effective, they will start to have cases even if only at a low and potentially acceptable (elsewhere at any rate) level. I wonder if they are prepared for that?

 

[PannickAtTheDisco]

At some stage they are going to have to open up as you can't have closed borders forever (unless you are North Korea). Presumably after they have vaccinated the whole population but, as vaccinations are not 100% effective, they will start to have cases even if only at a low and potentially acceptable (elsewhere at any rate) level. I wonder if they are prepared for that?

it will be interesting to see the contrast in such a well shielded population trying to open up.

 

[Gremlin]

Here's what I don't get right,, your far far far more likely to die from smoking or get seriously ill through smoking than covid,
This is coming from a 20 a day man,, I know stupid twat I am.
But here's the thing if the governments of the world are so hell bent on saving lives all of a sudden, why do they simply not ban cigarettes and you could probably say alcohol,
That would save millions of lives world wide on a yearly basis, I don't get it.
It's almost like nothing bad exists anymore other than covid...... Anyway love some one to explain,, I think I know the reasons for not banning cigarettes, as I think most do,or alcohol come to that, but as I said if the world has become hell bent on saving the worlds population as they'd have you believe ,
Then surely they would start with those 2 "evils",, no... Or am I missing something???

The people who suffer ill health and die from smoking or alcohol-related illnesses don't all happen at once, it is spread out across the year at a level the NHS was able to deal with. the problem with Covid (or any other infectious disease) is that it comes in waves due to exponential infection growth so massive amounts of people need to be hospitalised at once, overwhelming the system.

 

[Marvin]

At some stage they are going to have to open up as you can't have closed borders forever (unless you are North Korea). Presumably after they have vaccinated the whole population but, as vaccinations are not 100% effective, they will start to have cases even if only at a low and potentially acceptable (elsewhere at any rate) level. I wonder if they are prepared for that?

The Wuhan virus was wiped out. Then the alpha variant. But it keeps spinning off new strains.

The Delta variant is doomed too. Certainly in the UK but the obvious concern is what it is going to spawn as it goes global. Hopefully nothing serious but if it does then we need our own vaccine variants, then we can put this behind us.

For a year we thought it was the Wuhan virus vs herd immunity, and we slowly tracked rising levels of immunity and antibodies, and the prospect of vaccines against the Wuhan virus. And then it dawned on us that it was shape shifter.