Coronavirus (2021) thread

[grunge]

and the key factor which is a huge reduction from 1-2% case fatality to 0.1-0.2% with the delta variant from the PHE data

I take it you didn't actually read what Healdplace wrote.

"We would absolutely have needed the Nightingales had the first wave 15 months ago been of the Indian variant"

 

[Bluemoon dan]

British grand prix : Silverstone to have capacity crowd for July race. 18th July Any blues going

Yep. I'll be there. Tickets rolled over from last year. Chuffed to bits as really didn't think I would be.

 

[Healdplace]

Total deaths today with out of hospital England to come = 16.

It was 20 last Thursday. That became 19 in all settings later. 13 of them from England.


Total cases today from the three nations with England to come = 3635.

It was 1636 last week. Less than half.

England last week added 9371 cases to the 1636 to total 11,007.

If England doubles today we will top 20,000. Hopefully it will not. And is unlikely to do so just about. But very likely to be well up and in five figures.

 

[twosips]

ignoring all the conspiracy theory nonsense that has decided to pop up again, this is actually the only stuff that matters. Good news.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

ignoring all the conspiracy theory nonsense that has decided to pop up again, this is actually the only stuff that matters. Good news.

It's starting to look like there's a consistent drop in hospitalisation rates coming through, isn't it?

Much needed and very good news if it continues.

Would be interesting to see an analysis of ages & vaccination status to see if there's something consistent driving it.

 

[Healdplace]

21 all settings deaths

16,703 cases

 

[Healdplace]

North West down 302 on day to 3318.

Greater Manchester was down by less than expected - just 65 of that 302 to 1541.


Week to week it was a little better for GM.

North West up by 460 from 2858 last week

GM up by exactly 200 of that 460 which is slightly below expected 50% rise of 230.



Not as good a day for GM relative to the NW as recent days.

Indeed only two boroughs were under 100 - and they were Trafford and Rochdale both on 96.

This is the highest number to be the 'best' in GM in several months.

Wigan topped 200 and Salford was one off doing the same.

Manchester at 378 its second highest in past few months.


Could have been worse but not as good as many recent days. Pretty much everywhere up week to week.

Bolton by 6 to 127.

 

[bobbyowenquiff]

If we didn’t have the vaccines with this variant we’d still be locked down

We have had a lucky escape. Covid could have been much more deadly across all age groups and without early vaccines the death toll would have been much higher. It's a context worth considering when people complain about missing a few foreign holidays.

 

[Healdplace]

England hospital data:

Breakdown of regional numbers. Quite promising for the North West.

If other regions follow the NW pattern in coming weeks I think we can feel reassured there is not going to be a big hospital numbers increase.



NW admissions on Tuesday (data is always 2 days old on admissions) were 42 out of the 182

Last week it was 58 out of 188. So a signiificant wk to wk fall in the region.

Midlands and London were pretty flat week to week.

The biggest rise was in Yorkshire (where cases have been going up all week).

From 21 to 40 wk to wk - indeed almost being the highest admissions then which the NW has been now for weeks.



England patients are up 152 wk to wk from 1122.

That is a FALL from an increase of 216 in the previous week. Very hopeful.



Unfortunately the NW rose today but only by 7 to 444 versus 388 last Thursday. A weekly rise of 56.

This is significantly better than the previous week where numbers rose from 271 to 388 - a rise of 117.

7 by the NW was the highest rise today though others were around the same 5 or 6 - in many areas including Yorkshire and London.



Ventilators sadly up 13 to 240 versus 197 last week

North West was up by 5 unfortunately to 89 versus 79 last week - although that is significantly less than the rise the week before from 46 to 79

The biggest rise here was for London - up 6 to 67 in the day. That is a rise of 14 from 53 last week - an increase here on the rise of 7 from 46 the week before.



As I say these numbers are quite encouraging I would suggest. Because if they are falling already so clearly in the NW when other regions join in - if they do - from rising variant cases - then it looks promising they will follow the same path - perhaps even better if they are later and vaccinations more advanced by then.

In sum that infers we will not be overwhelmed by this wave.

 

[ayrshire_blue]

Not bothering with the age stats of Scottish cases today, but of the 3000 cases less than 50 are in the over 65 age category. So I'll leave it at that with positive news from Bolton following on from Healdplace's encouraging stats.