Coronavirus (2021) thread

[hammocity]

And even if we get it sorted in this country so that spikes are reduced, it's still running wild in the rest of the world where a variant could emerge that (god forbid) evades vaccines and make it's way here. That's why we need to do more than pay lip service to giving vaccines to developing countries - for our own sake as much as anyones. As has been noted by some commentators, 'we're not safe until everyone is safe'.

A company I do some work for have just had confirmation 2 of its workforce out of around 30 people have tested positive, both not jabbed, rest of them with at least 1 jab all negative. Come on you vaccines, as you say, let's jab the world and we can get back to some kind of normality.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

I've posted this before, but as the subject of evolutionary pressure to reduce how deadly the virus is, good overview here.

Short version: no reason to expect decrease in fatality rate in the short term. The virus will tend to become more transmissible regardless of whether that increases or decreases lethality.

Will coronavirus really evolve to become less deadly?

The coronavirus is evolving, but which path it will take is far from certain.

theconversation.com

 

[Gremlin]

I've posted this before, but as the subject of evolutionary pressure to reduce how deadly the virus is, good overview here.

Short version: no reason to expect decrease in fatality rate in the short term. The virus will tend to become more transmissible regardless of whether that increases or decreases lethality.

Will coronavirus really evolve to become less deadly?

The coronavirus is evolving, but which path it will take is far from certain.

theconversation.com

The goal of the virus, as with any form of life, is to continue to multiply and from that point of view, very deadly diseases are somewhat 'sub-optimal' as they kill too many carriers before they get a chance to pass it on. the particularly nasty aspect of Covid-19 is that (very roughly from the figures previously floating around) 30% of perople who get it are asymptomatic but a small minority will die from it (whether that's 1% , 0.5% or whatever the number is). Hence, it is almost ideally suited to widespread transmission (if it made more people sicker then it wouldn't transmit nearly as well because sick people don't go out spreading it around) but still brings a significant death toll with it as a result of the massive spread.

The upshot is that there is evolutionary pressure to increase transmisibility but small changes in the fataility rate (up or down) from what is a realtively low level probably don't make a lot of difference to it from an evolutionary point of view. Hence, no reason to think it will get weaker. conversely nothing to stop it going that way either - we will find out in due course.

 

[BlueHammer85]

'Possibility' restrictions could be extended beyond 19 July, says SAGE scientist

The "ferociously infectious" Delta variant could see Freedom Day pushed back again, a member of the scientific group advising the government has told Sky News.

Professor Peter Openshaw said it would be a "mistake" to bring the date forward from 19 July as vaccination rates are not yet high enough.

"It's so important that we get the vaccination rate as high as we can before any easement of restrictions," he told Kay Burley.

He said it was a "possibility" the lifting of restrictions could be pushed back again.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

I've posted this before, but as the subject of evolutionary pressure to reduce how deadly the virus is, good overview here.

Short version: no reason to expect decrease in fatality rate in the short term. The virus will tend to become more transmissible regardless of whether that increases or decreases lethality.

Will coronavirus really evolve to become less deadly?

The coronavirus is evolving, but which path it will take is far from certain.

theconversation.com

but arnt Sars and Mers still in circulation, but are now much less serious as they have mutated to become so?

 

[Healdplace]

It is certainly more likely opening up will be pushed back than brought forward but likely even money on opening up on deadline with a few tweaks perhaps to stop any concerns.

Any delay will effectively mean Summer dependent industries will struggle to survive the winter. Unless hospitalisations and deaths escalate a lot as the impact of those from rising cases in all regions - no longer just Scotland and the NW - emerge in the next 2 weeks. Which the hope is will not be the case based on evidence so far.

That is my best guess anyway. But it is just a guess who the heck knows where we are headed, We are all making educated guesses right now and balancing incompatible needs in a way that ends up more a fudge than a vict ory for either camp.

 

[Manchester33]

'Possibility' restrictions could be extended beyond 19 July, says SAGE scientist

The "ferociously infectious" Delta variant could see Freedom Day pushed back again, a member of the scientific group advising the government has told Sky News.

Professor Peter Openshaw said it would be a "mistake" to bring the date forward from 19 July as vaccination rates are not yet high enough.

"It's so important that we get the vaccination rate as high as we can before any easement of restrictions," he told Kay Burley.

He said it was a "possibility" the lifting of restrictions could be pushed back again.

Of course, it's a possibility. But one that would certainly be suicide for Boris who's already teetering following another scandal under his tenure.

 

[Healdplace]

It is pointless seeking who to blame over all this. You only have to look at the different way Europe is reacting to see there is no actual right or wrong path.

Places like Germany want to be ultra cautious and ban all Brits from going there without strict restrictions even if double vaccinated in a desperate attempt to stop Delta taking over. Given how they are surrounded by other countries with land borders that likely will get it they face a long fight to get there and Britain will soon not be their main concern. Indeed cases will be falling here thanks to our higher vaccination numbers.

Whereas the holiday nations that need Brits now not 3 months from now to save some of the Summer will use vaccine passports to compromise and risk Delta getting in.

Right or wrong is not where we are. Finding a path that balances risk and reward is for everyone now.

 

[Manchester33]

It is certainly more likely opening up will be pushed back than brought forward but likely even money on opening up on deadline with a few tweaks perhaps to stop any concerns.

Any delay will effectively mean Summer dependent industries will struggle to survive the winter. Unless hospitalisations and deaths escalate a lot as the impact of those from rising cases in all regions - no longer just Scotland and the NW - emerge in the next 2 weeks. Which the hope is will not be the case based on evidence so far.

That is my best guess anyway. But it is just a guess who the heck knows where we are headed, We are all making educated guesses right now and balancing incompatible needs in a way that ends up more a fudge than a vict ory for either camp.

Surely we've got enough data from Bolton and GM over the past month that shows hospitalisations and deaths aren't going to get anywhere near the previous peaks.

The vaccines have done their job. We need to worry more about our economy now. The time for protecting the anti-vaxers has passed.

 

[Healdplace]

Surely we've got enough data from Bolton and GM over the past month that shows hospitalisations and deaths aren't going to get anywhere near the previous peaks.

The vaccines have done their job. We need to worry more about our economy now. The time for protecting the anti-vaxers has passed.

We have BUT the numbers we have now come in England just from one region - the NW - which even 6 weeks on from Bolton spiking is still edging upward as more parts of the region catch it. GM is almost the least of it now as it has spread across the whole NW and so numbers have still gone up as one area peaks and another replaces it.

There has been minimal impact on hospital numbers so far but these lag by a week or two the cases. And the picture is now complicated not just as it is still spreading in parts of the NW but because EVERY region in England is now spiking fast as well in a rerun of Bolton in early May.

All these doing so at once feeds into the hospital and patiemt numbers much more than was the case up to now and will increase numbers and deaths unless alongside of it the NW starts to fall in compensation which it is as yet really not doing. It has just flattened off.

There are a few hopeful signs but until we see what impact every part of the UK being a North West at pretty much the same time will have on the numbers nobody is going to be too gung ho about letting it rip and hoping for the best.

We are hoping the time the NW has bought to vaccinate more elsewhere will reduce the impact on hospitals even further in the other regions. It may indeed turn out that way and we CAN say with all but certainty it will be nowhere near the patient and death numbers we had in past waves.

But caution until we see that start to play out in a fast rising environment is going to be in the minds of most scientists - not hope for the best.

Politicians may have a different perspective. And they ultimately will decide.