Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Healdplace]

Cases across the regions:


Change in last 24 hrs V seven days ago



SOUTH


East UP 582 to 2285 V 1051

London UP 290 to 3633 V 2069 -- Going up and now just 300 behind the NW - it was over 2000 two weeks ago.

South East UP 470 to 3102 V 1911 - another region much closer to NW than was.

South West UP 114 to 1816 V 1210



Big increases here across the region,









MIDLANDS



East UP 122 to 1875 V 1122

West DOWN 122 to 2261 V 1743








NORTH



North East UP 331 to 2842 V 1439 - amazing to see this tiny region closing in on the North West



Yorkshire UP 3 to 2970 V 2014



AND



NORTH WEST UP 15 to 3960 V 3870 - another good day . Multiple regions catching NW.




Past weeks NW numbers are 3870 - 4856 - 4366 - 5033 - 3997 - 3989 - 3945 - 3960

Equivalent NW numbers a week earlier 2790 - 3620 - 3318 - 3440 - 3693 - 2763 - 4168 - 3870

GM numbers in past week 1619 -2120 - 1895 - 2217 - 1703 - 1726 - 1678 - 1605



THAT IS GOING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION,

 

[Healdplace]

Full GM details:


Total cases 1605 - DOWN 73 on Yesterday - from NW RISE of15

Obviously good for GM.


Wk to wk DOWN 14 when the NW ROSE by 90. So GM is again doing much better here as if you go down when the region goes up you are obviously on the right track.



BOROUGH / CASES TODAY / V YESTERDAY / V LAST WEEK



BOLTON 102 / DOWN 12 /DOWN 10

BURY 69 / DOWN 26 / DOWN 19

MANCHESTER 366 / UP 54 / DOWN 23

OLDHAM 133 / DOWN 53 / DOWN 20

ROCHDALE 140 / DOWN 6 / UP 24

SALFORD 127 / DOWN 25 /DOWN 53

STOCKPORT 134 / UP 6 / UP 12

TAMESIDE 133 / DOWN 11 / UP20

TRAFFORD 163 / DOWN 9 / UP 21

WIGAN 238 / UP 9 / UP 34


Bury doing the best now in GM no question. Lowest numbers in a week or two,

But Bolton edged down day to day and week to week today too and these two are cleary doing the best in GM right now,

Salford also seems to be getting under control as numbers are going the right way.

Oldham also was much improved.

Stockport had the second worse day behind Wigan - both up day to day and week to week - but Stockport's numbers were again low relative to Trafford again and extended by another big chunk their lead over Trafford as best overall Pop Score as Trafford had another worse day, Though a little improved too.

Manchester up on the day but down week to week.

 

[Healdplace]

Greater Manchester

Weekly total cases:-




Bury 725, Bolton 857 , Tameside 964, Stockport 1039 , Trafford 1116 , Rochdale 1125, Salford 1221, Oldham 1323, Wigan 1733, Manchester 2839




Much better day here with most falling and Bury pulling well clear now.

But lowest weekly total is only part of the story. Over 700 is far more than Bury should be getting as its size suggests it ought to always have the fewest cases. This is where Pop scores come in as they even out expectations via population numbers to a visible marker of real comparative performance.

Not much else changed today,

 

[Healdplace]

GM Weekly Pop Data after today:~

Borough / Pop Today / 7 days ago / up or down wk to wk/ Testing is % of local population who have tested positive for Covid over past year.

As ever with Pop going up is bad, going down good - the higher the number the better or worse depending on direction moving. The Pop is total cases in past week versus 100,000 POPulation to even out the comparison versus size and expected cases based on numbers living there.



Oldham 558 / 393 / UP 165 Testing positive 11.4%

Wigan 527 / 451 / UP 76 Testing positive 10. 8%

Manchester 513 / 493 / UP 20 Testing positive 11.9%

Rochdale 506 / 367 / UP 139 Testing positive 11.4 %

Salford 472 / 482 / DOWN 10 Testing positive 11.1%

Trafford 471 / 363 / UP 108 Testing positive 8.7%

Tameside 426 / 344 / UP 82 Testing positive 9.6%

Bury 379 / 365 / UP 14 Testing positive 10.9%

Stockport 354 / 270 / UP 84 Testing positive 8.6%

Bolton 298 / 284 / UP 14 Testing positive 11.9%



Oldham had a better day so the GM top number fell today. Rochdale joined them and a fast falling Manchester and a still rising Wigan over 500.


Bolton fell back just under 300 just as the only inhabitant and Bury continued to fall and could yet catch Stockport for second best current Pop score in GM as SK is up and down these days.


Trafford case numbers remain a lot worse than Stockport and today lost another 23 in one go on its overall Pop Score to now be 92 behind Stockport - a 300 point turnaround from Trafford 200 ahead in under a month. Showing how hard Trafford has it at the moment

Stockport up 46 now on 8598 but Trafford up by 69 - to 8690

Bolton up 36 - joint best of the day - to 11, 951.

Oldham much better just 56 to 11, 432.

Manchester up 66 - now on 11, 894. Closing in on highest in GM from Bolton and just 57 - maybe a couple of days - behind claiming the highest Pop Score in GM from BL.

Rochdale up 63 on 11, 365

Salford rose by just 50 to 11, 137.

But others are not far off.

Bury, doing much better now and rising by just 36 - joint best in GM with Bolton - - now on 10, 917.

Wigan up by 72 to reach 10, 806.


So just Stockport and Trafford - both in the MID 8000s for now - and Tameside a rung above up 59 today on 9578.

 

[Healdplace]

GM VACCINE UPDATE:




Latest Vaccine Update by Population Percentage for 10 GM boroughs

Borough/ First Dose / Both Doses - TODAY V YESTERDAY


BOLTON 76.9% / 58.4% V 76.8 / 58.2% Up 0.3

BURY 78.2% / 59.3% V 78.2% / 59.2% Up 0.1

MANCHESTER 61.3% / 39.4% V 61.1% / 39.1% Up 0.5

OLDHAM 72.9% / 55.1% V 72.8% / 54.7% Up 0.5

ROCHDALE 74.3% / 55.5% V 74.3% / 55.1% Up 0.4

SALFORD 68.3 % / 46.0% V 68.2% / 45.8% Up 0.3

STOCKPORT 82.6% / 62.9% V 82.5% / 62.7% Up 0.3

TAMESIDE 78.0% / 59.9% V 77.9% / 59.7% Up 0.3

TRAFFORD 80.2% / 60.7% V 80.1% / 60.5% Up 0.3

WIGAN 81.7% / 62.0% V 81.7% / 61.8% Up 0.2


Bury only up 0.1% did the fewest today.

Manchester and Oldham did the best going up 0.5%

 

[BlueAnorak]

It was stated yesterday that modelling with up to the minute info is still underway, and will be reviewed before a final decision is made (even though a final decision has clearly been made already).

But I think most models of this sort of scenario see a peak in August, with considerable uncertainty of timing and magnitude.

Currently cases are only just starting to catch the same sorts of numbers as vaccination is, and that's had a disappointingly small impact on growth of delta, so it would be surprising if this level of cases rapidly stopped growth. But covid is full of surprises.

Let's be honest modelling has seriously over egged the pudding twice now. Can they get it right this time? Unlikely I think.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Does the same count for smokers who get lung cancer? Boozer liver cancer ? Some who starts a fight but gets his nose bust? Arsing around on a bike and gets hit by a car?
Tough shit. Your fault. Back of the queue

The hospital will still be available for those at risk who refused the vaccine and got ill as a result.

 

[The Future’s Blue!]

It’s OK, this is the point where you are to blame for killing you’re granny.

 

[Claytop]

I think 45 and under probably haven't had their second jabs yet?

Mentioned earlier but I’m 31 and had both Pfizer ones, walk in places over here doing 3 week intervals between the two, or were doing as of last week.

 

[crooky]

Mentioned earlier but I’m 31 and had both Pfizer ones, walk in places over here doing 3 week intervals between the two, or were doing as of last week.

It's 8 weeks minimum here. Just checked the official website.

So at least another 4 weeks for me.

Thanks for the suggestion though. Was worth checking.