Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Do we know that? Hospitalisation is one thing, but debilitating Long Covid cases aren't exclusive to that.

The effect of vaccination on the prognosis of minor and moderate cases is one question I think hasn't been addressed.

And I've not read a thing on how harmful Delta may be in those terms relative to previous variants.

I've also no idea how the risk of repeated exposure to the virus is viewed.

I imagine very strongly we're looking at increased viral loads in the community - and I know this was previously associated with poor outcomes.

What of repeated exposure to the same variant? Does beating Kent then getting heavy exposure to Delta comes with any risk? What if you beat a small viral load, then get a huge one?

Difficult questions, for sure. The limited information from track and trace would seem to leave us with potential gaps in our understanding.

Surely it's far too soon for scientific opinion to be making confident judgements about that side of things, and thus the risks attached to this decision. But obviously, not too soon for a politician to start selling it on the basis that the questions aren't so much unanswered as hitherto unasked, which is the same thing as not part of the debate.

Boris made this deal to save his skin back in February. And no-one is as impatient as a Tory looking at a restriction on the economy. It's pretty much on the Tory party as much as him. It would seem they got Javid in despite Boris, and here we are. Look how much room that leaves Boris!

If it does go tits up, public opinion and the right wing of the party will end up living on different planes. Leaving the moderates to come crawling back to Boris, at which point, he just takes Javid out of the spotlight for a bit, frees up his 5 O'clock diary slots, messes up his hair a bit, and wheels out the "Uncle Boris-On-The-Telly-With-The-Vaccines" character. And presumably prorogue parliament again.

I think he gave it away when he said it was time for us to stop washing our hands, and for him to start.
The UK has now had 4 versions of the virus.
- The original
- The 'Spanish' variant that holiday makers brought back that triggered the 2nd wave at the end of Sept (it wasn't the original virus returning - genetics has proven that).
- Alpha.
- Delta.

Vaccination against the original virus has given the vulnerable a lot of immunity against Alpha and Delta. There will be another variant soon enough. Is that the one you want to wait for? Maybe the one after that?

Meantime the economy is further damaged so that poverty gets worse and restrictions cause mental issues that will cause more damage.

If the vulnerable have been given immunity (or the chance to have immunity) then we need to return to normal with a world wide policy on checking this virus's variants and updating vaccines to counter them. Much like the policy on flu.
 
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UK HOSPITAL NUMBERS:



Northern Ireland Patients 37 - up from 19 last week & ventilators 1 - down from 2 last week

Scotland Patients 346 - up from 215 last week & ventilators 32 - up from 20 last week

Wales Patients 60 - up from 36 last week & Ventilators 8 - up from 3 last week

THREE NATION TOTAL

Patients 443 V 270 last week Ventilators 41 V 25 last week


SO UK NUMBERS:



PATIENTS 2441 V 1715 last week

VENTILATORS 394 V 284 last week



These week to week numbers are up a lot and seem rather concerning as we are probably just at the start of this increase
 
Have you seen any prediction of when this reaches a peak? Presumably at some point it will not find people to be infected.

I've not seen any scientist discussing that, hence the question.

It was stated yesterday that modelling with up to the minute info is still underway, and will be reviewed before a final decision is made (even though a final decision has clearly been made already).

But I think most models of this sort of scenario see a peak in August, with considerable uncertainty of timing and magnitude.

Currently cases are only just starting to catch the same sorts of numbers as vaccination is, and that's had a disappointingly small impact on growth of delta, so it would be surprising if this level of cases rapidly stopped growth. But covid is full of surprises.
 
It was stated yesterday that modelling with up to the minute info is still underway, and will be reviewed before a final decision is made (even though a final decision has clearly been made already).

But I think most models of this sort of scenario see a peak in August, with considerable uncertainty of timing and magnitude.

Currently cases are only just starting to catch the same sorts of numbers as vaccination is, and that's had a disappointingly small impact on growth of delta, so it would be surprising if this level of cases rapidly stopped growth. But covid is full of surprises.

Thanks. I assume there is also data showing age ranges of those affected. I'm thinking virtually all the cases this week are delta variant, but the age split seems to be the important thing, as well as how many have had 2 jabs over 3 weeks beforehand.
 
37 deaths today equates to 20-25 wed through Sat due to most weekend deaths not being reported on the correct day.
 
Thanks. I assume there is also data showing age ranges of those affected. I'm thinking virtually all the cases this week are delta variant, but the age split seems to be the important thing, as well as how many have had 2 jabs over 3 weeks beforehand.

I think it's very difficult to accurately predict as there's so much uncertainty over exact vaccine efficacy, how much people's behaviour will change after 19th etc etc.

Here's an amateur but very well informed modeller with their central projection.

Peak early August, near 2,000 daily admissions (note the axis is in weekly) with some breakdown down.


1625590510031.png

I would guess that's a reasonable guess, but with a lot of uncertainty.

From here

 
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