Coronavirus (2021) thread

[ayrshire_blue]

Hopefully it circulated enough in the last couple of months since delta first appeared in order to get us closer to the threshold, and that this fire break allows it to burn out and drop considerably enough to put us in a better position come September.

Hopefully so mate. Don't know why those are my first thoughts at on the face of it encouraging data, think this thing has fucked loads of us mentally (to different extents!) and left some of us thinking the worst or needing to have concerns allayed somewhat!

 

[Rammy Blue]

Hopefully so mate. Don't know why those are my first thoughts at on the face of it encouraging data, think this thing has fucked loads of us mentally (to different extents!) and left some of us thinking the worst or needing to have concerns allayed somewhat!

I know, bored to fucking death of it all. Imagine how I’m feeling having to isolate for 10 days when I am quite patently immune as was exposed to delta 10 days ago now, both kids positive for 7 days, and I’m still right as rain and negative!

 

[BlueAnorak]

What are excess deaths in Germany , as I’d say that’s a good marker

Here: https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid
But you need to download the CSV file and/or follow the links at the bottom of the page to determine the exact numbers but excess deaths in Germany are roughly 30% lower than those in the UK over the pandemic, but in terms of recorded deaths per head are around 42% lower.
The difference? Probably, Germany only records OF Covid, the UK records OF and WITH Covid.

 

[BlueAnorak]

UK cases 279 per 100,000
Germany & Italy in single figures.

I just don't understand what is happening in this country with this.

Delta will be dominant all across Europe in 5 weeks. It is already dominant in Russia, Portugal, Spain and the Netherlands. It is also nearly dominant in France.
As it is so much more transmissible their cases will be rocktting then as well.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Flu is a known quantifiable risk. Covid is still an unknown risk and we do not have decades of data to quantify it.

Everything we do, short of lockdowns to suppress the spread, is a gamble. July 19th is a gamble. It may be a disaster or a giant nothing burger. We’ll know after July 19th.

See you on the other side.

17,000 deaths a year on average.
60% occur in 3 months of the year (Jan through March) 113 a day

Bad years they Treble and in Good years they halve.

 

[grunge]

Here: https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid
But you need to download the CSV file and/or follow the links at the bottom of the page to determine the exact numbers but excess deaths in Germany are roughly 30% lower than those in the UK over the pandemic, but in terms of recorded deaths per head are around 42% lower.
The difference? Probably, Germany only records OF Covid, the UK records OF and WITH Covid.

How its recorded wont impact excess deaths, by there very nature excess deaths have no cause attributed to them, its just a "death" above the 5 year average.

 

[Healdplace]

ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS

17 with 6 from the NW

Last week was 12 with 4, week before 11 with 6.

One dates from January so might be discounted,

The rest all in past week or so.

7 Jul at 3 after 1 day

6 Jul at 12 after 2 days

5 Jul at 14 after 3 days

4 Jul at 13 after 4 days

And 3 Jul at 15 after 5 days.

One was added to 2 Jul now at 23 - highest on one day since 10 April,

But not yet close to the 700 or so we would need to top 100 deaths in a day.

Though numbers are likely to rise as of yet we are not looking near that milestone as we certainly would have been by now without the vaccines.

The last 7 day total (27 Jun - 3 Jul) of 5 day numbers adds up to 96

The previous weeks were 68 - wk before 56 - wk before 40

So there has clearly been a jump up of deaths in the past week

 

[BlueAnorak]

How its recorded wont impact excess deaths, by there very nature excess deaths have no cause attributed to them, its just a "death" above the 5 year average.

Recorded deaths are not excess deaths.
But the point is recorded deaths are 10 or so percent higher in the UK than Germany than the figures for excess deaths.
I meary stated the probable reason why recorded deaths in the UK are so much higher per head than Germany as compared to the figures for excess deaths.

 

[Healdplace]

ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS - MORE DETAIL

Age ranges: 0 - 19 (1), 40 - 59 (3), 60 - 79 (5) , 80 PLUS (8)

So the third tragic death to a child or teenager from Covid in the past few days.

Older people still dying more often for obvious reasons but the vaccination has cut that down so much the contrast between how many younger and older are dying is far less stark.

Regions: East 0, London 1, Midlands 4, NE & Yorkshire 3, North West 6, South East 3, South West 0

The NW deaths were:- 2 in Lancashire and1 each in East Lancashire, Manchester, Salford and Wigan.

 

[west didsblue]

Total % of people aged 18 and over. I imagine that will change once they start to vaccinate younger ages routinely. Assuming they do.

About 21% of the population in England are aged under 18, If you want to factor an approximate whole population number. Deduct about a fifth of the number posted daily to get it.

Though one of the mathematicians on here will explain if there is a better or more exact way,

Looking at data in ourworldindata.org, the overall rate for single jabbed in the UK is 67% of the whole population which equates to 83% of the adult population, and for fully vaccinated is 50% equating to 63% of adults. That suggests that GM is some way behind the national average based on your figures. Do you think that's the case based on what you've seen?