Coronavirus (2021) thread

[grunge]

Recorded deaths are not excess deaths.
But the point is recorded deaths are 10 or so percent higher in the UK than the figures for excess deaths.
I meary stated the reason why recorded deaths in the UK are so much higher than Germany as compared to the figures for excess deaths.

Do you have any links to show that is how Germany report them? I've only ever seen it mentioned on this thread and never seen anything online to back it up.

 

[Healdplace]

NORTHERN IRELAND DATA

0 deaths - was 0 last week

627 cases - was 326 last week

19.9% positivity - was 13% last week

9 Care Home Outbreaks - was 8 yesterday & 4 last week

THIS IS STARTING TO BE A BIT OF A CONCERN

3257 rolling 7 day cases - up from 3054 yesterday & 1970 last week

48 patients - up from 43 yesterday & 21 last week (more than doubled in 7 days).

0 ventilated - was 1 yesterday & 2 last week.

GOOD NEWS GIVEN NO RECENT DEATHS

 

[Healdplace]

Looking at data in ourworldindata.org, the overall rate for single jabbed in the UK is 67% of the whole population which equates to 83% of the adult population, and for fully vaccinated is 50% equating to 63% of adults. That suggests that GM is some way behind the national average based on your figures. Do you think that's the case based on what you've seen?

They are not my figures. They are the official government ones.

But as I post every evening there have always been HUGE disparities within GM let alone between GM and other places.

Manchester (much the worst) v Stockport (the best) tells that story,

If those figures are comparable nationally even Stockport is slightly below the national average. Others in GM well below. But then pretty much all urban areas are and social factors will be part of it,

There have been several calls by local MPs to divert supplies to GM to speed things up when cases were spiking. In fact some were redirected to London I believe. But GM was turned down.

Things may have changed as the numbers in Bolton notably sped up in April/May when resources were focused there and similar things seem to now be happening in Manchester as it has been one of the highest % of new jabs in GM for a few days recently which I recently started totting up and logging on these daily posts so we could see who was doing well and who less so day to day.

 

[west didsblue]

They are not my figures. They are the official government ones.

But as I post every evening there have always been HUGE disparities within GM let alone between GM and other places.

Manchester (much the worst) v Stockport (the best) tells that story,

If those figures are comparable nationally even Stockport is slightly below the national average. Others in GM well below. But then pretty much all urban areas are and social factors will be part of it,

There have been several calls by local MPs to divert supplies to GM to speed things up when cases were spiking. In fact some were redirected to London I believe. But GM was turned down.

Thongs may have changed as the numbers in Bolton notably sped up in April/May when resources were focused there and similar things seem to now be happening in Manchester as it has been one of the highest % of new jabs in GM for a few days recently,

I realised that your figures were official ones. I was asking the question to verify the accuracy of the figures on the ourworldindata website which, from what you are saying, appears to be broadly consistent. That website is interesting because it makes it easy to do comparisons with different countries.
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

 

[Gabriel]

5,474 new cases in the Netherlands today, up from 3,660 yesterday, and it was only 826 last Thursday. Today’s figure is also likely to be highly conservative, as the testing capacity is reported to be failing to meet demand. ‘Government’ has been taken aback by the speed of the upsurge and is already warning that summer holidays will likely be scuppered if the country is put back, as anticipated, on red lists.

 

[Healdplace]

NORTHERN IRELAND LAST WEEK OF CASES BY AGE RANGE

0 - 19 (940) 28.9%

20 - 39 (1429) 43.9%

40 - 59 (692) 21.3%

60 - 79 (160) 4.9%

80 PLUS (34) 1.0%


As you can see the shift in distribution of ages IS clearly real in the wrong way for comfort as numbers climb,

Mostly due to the reduction in school age numbers due to holidays I expect. This number is easily the fastest falling, Unsurprisingly as fewer are being tested outside school than when together,

The biggest rise is to the 20 - 39s but not a dramatic rise - the 40 - 59s is up a few % points too.

And the Over 60s has clearly doubled to nearly 6% from under 3% a few weeks ago,

How much of this is just a quirk of rising statistics and how much real extra cases is unclear.

The difference between under 40s v over 60s was quite recently at 80% v3% and is now 73% v 6% which is quite a dramatic shift, And could have consequences on hospital numbers and deaths in due course depending on how well the vaccines hold up,

I suspect most of the over 80s catching this are in the rising care home outbreaks. Doubling week to week now, Though happily still in single figures just not pushing 200 as they were in the last wave at peak,

 

[Healdplace]

Today's UK deaths with just England out of hospital to come are:- 21.

Last week it was 18 at this stage and became 22 on all settings later.


And three nation cases are 4130. Since Scotland is down but N Ireland has doubled and Wales risen by not far off double.

Last week it was 5041 - so a good fall thanks to Scotland.

There were 27, 989 cases in the UK last Thursday so England added 22, 948

Yesterday England added 27, 516 to the three nation total of 5032 to total a new recent high of 32, 548

 

[twosips]

No I'll stop reading it the thread, other posters like reading it or find them interesting - that's fair enough,
All my point is that is in generally (and not specific to this forum) is that I think the press / tv need to move away from the figures now. We don't have daily figures for car accidents, flu, cancer published each and every day so why is this narrative continuing with coronavirus? I realise we are still learning about the virus but sometimes people get sucked in & addicted to these things (like me) and panic when looking at stats.

I have been there, so I totally get where you're coming from. I would try your best to just...well...forget about it all though. I just went out to get my haircut. I live in town, so after I had it cut, I was in the centre so I popped into boots to grab some bits I needed. The weather was nice, so I got an iced coffee, had a podcast on and got some food from the Vietnamese place on Oxford road. I got home, ate the food with the doors open, watched the highlights from last night again, and forgot all about covid for a couple of hours. I really, really enjoyed it. Then I looked in here and sunk a bit again. It's silly, but it's an easy trap to fall into. There's no point though, cos literally *nothing* changes if I check this thread or not. Nothing. Pandemic is still here. I may as well just try and be in a good mood as opposed to a bad one, right?

My advice. Mute 'covid', 'coronavirus', 'delta' etc etc on Twitter for a week. Delete the news apps off your phone. Ask one of the mods on here to thread ban you so you can't post in here (seriously, I asked Ric to do it for me). I've done all that before. It helped, loads. Trust me. Then just go for a long walk, treat yourself, do anything. Play a game. Put an album on. Go for a run. Go cinema. Go and sit in a cafe and have a coffee. Go for a walk, listen to some music unreasonably loud. Anything. Force yourself to do it. If you feel the urge to check, don't. Do sumat else. Anything. You'll be surprised how much of a difference it makes. Covid is shite, but there is nothing any of us can do on a purely individual basis other than being responsible for our own actions.

It will go up, but it will also go down again. We know cos that has happened. One day it will go and life will move on. It will, cos well..it has to - that's how these things work. Dunno how long it'll take, but probably not as long as the negative parts of our brain thinks. Trust me when I say you're missing out on nothing by micro-analysing the day to day changes. I gave myself panic attacks last year doing this stuff. I've never even been remotely like that in my life, but I was doomscrolling and ruining my entire week. Thing is, there is zero point. I get the urge for info, as I'm like that, but I was accomplishing nothing. You simply have to know when to switch off. Eventually you're accomplishing nothing other than getting yourself down.

Force yourself to try and just forget about it for a couple of days. The stats will be there tomorrow still. Everything else is just opinion, noise and kinda pointless. It doesn't change anything. You can choose to read about covid, or you can choose to read a book or do something else. I am very happy to even DM you a bunch of things to do if you want mate. I read a few books last year that I forced myself to read and the escapism was mint. Totally shook me out of my slump. I know its a lonely, shite time, but you'll be fine mate. Trust me!

Edit - try and get some perspective too btw mate. Everytime I see the numbers and panic, I force myself to remember just how many people there are in this country. 30 a day dying sounds awful, but well...it's low. In 2019, over 600,000 people died in a year. About 1600 per day. None of us likely knew that, cos why would we? Also, saying 2,000 people in hospital sounds dead scary, but there are 1250 NHS hospitals in the UK according to google. Suddenly that doesn't seem that mad does it? These numbers are something we're not used to so we lack perspective. Try and remember that when reading these stats. Life is brutal, but right now it's currently in terms of mortality not that different to how it always has been. Sounds cold, but that's true.

 

[BLUEMATT23]

I have been there, so I totally get where you're coming from. I would try your best to just...well...forget about it all though. I just went out to get my haircut. I live in town, so after I had it cut, I was in the centre so I popped into boots to grab some bits I needed. The weather was nice, so I got an iced coffee, had a podcast on and got some food from the Vietnamese place on Oxford road. I got home, ate the food with the doors open, watched the highlights from last night again, and forgot all about covid for a couple of hours. I really, really enjoyed it. Then I looked in here and sunk a bit again. It's silly, but it's an easy trap to fall into. There's no point though, cos literally *nothing* changes if I check this thread or not. Nothing. Pandemic is still here. I may as well just try and be in a good mood as opposed to a bad one, right?

My advice. Mute 'covid', 'coronavirus', 'delta' etc etc on Twitter for a week. Delete the news apps off your phone. Ask one of the mods on here to thread ban you so you can't post in here (seriously, I asked Ric to do it for me). I've done all that before. It helped, loads. Trust me. Then just go for a long walk, treat yourself, do anything. Play a game. Put an album on. Go for a run. Go cinema. Go and sit in a cafe and have a coffee. Go for a walk, listen to some music unreasonably loud. Anything. Force yourself to do it. If you feel the urge to check, don't. Do sumat else. Anything. You'll be surprised how much of a difference it makes. Covid is shite, but there is nothing any of us can do on a purely individual basis other than being responsible for our own actions.

It will go up, but it will also go down again. We know cos that has happened. One day it will go and life will move on. It will, cos well..it has to - that's how these things work. Dunno how long it'll take, but probably not as long as the negative parts of our brain thinks. Trust me when I say you're missing out on nothing by micro-analysing the day to day changes. I gave myself panic attacks last year doing this stuff. I've never even been remotely like that in my life, but I was doomscrolling and ruining my entire week. Thing is, there is zero point. I get the urge for info, as I'm like that, but I was accomplishing nothing. You simply have to know when to switch off. Eventually you're accomplishing nothing other than getting yourself down.

Force yourself to try and just forget about it for a couple of days. The stats will be there tomorrow still. Everything else is just opinion, noise and kinda pointless. It doesn't change anything. You can choose to read about covid, or you can choose to read a book or do something else. I am very happy to even DM you a bunch of things to do if you want mate. I read a few books last year that I forced myself to read and the escapism was mint. Totally shook me out of my slump. I know its a lonely, shite time, but you'll be fine mate. Trust me!

Thank you

 

[twosips]

Thank you

My pleasure mate. Look after yourself, Matt. I added a bit too btw re the stats. Final thing I will say, is do something that feels 'normal' to you, but away from your home. Even if it's on your own. Always makes me feel better cos its a reminder that life is actually going on outside. It really is!