Coronavirus (2021) thread

[True_Blue69]

It can easily be 2+ months for outliers on ventilators etc. plus lag in data. UK daily updates are still including deaths that occurred weeks ago and that lag in data towards the end of the last peak was occasionally into the months.

these things take a good few months come come out in the wash.

Example. 1 UK person dying after 13 months in Intensive care. while this is an extreme case, there are outliers in ICU months later all over the world..

COVID-19: UK's longest known coronavirus patient suffering 'fainting attacks' after more than 13 months in ICU

Jason Kelk had made "huge strides" in his recovery in recent months but his condition has now worsened, his wife Sue says.

news.sky.com

More info

Biased and unbiased estimation of the average length of stay in intensive care units in the Covid-19 pandemic - Annals of Intensive Care

Background The average length of stay (LOS) in the intensive care unit (ICU_ALOS) is a helpful parameter summarizing critical bed occupancy. During the outbreak of a novel virus, estimating early a reliable ICU_ALOS estimate of infected patients is critical to accurately parameterize models...

annalsofintensivecare.springeropen.com

In the USA, in this one study, after 38 days 64% of cases are discharged from ICU. meaning 36% are still in after 38 days!.

The fact they are being written about tells you they are the exception not the norm. Don’t take my word for it, look at the case and death graphs then compare the trends, you can clearly see the lag.

 

[ganganvince]

The main reason I post in here and have for over a year is because I found the media biased towards their individual agendas. I came here as I was suggested to do because of posts from someone doing that here. HIs posts were just the numbers and what I wanted. No spin,

Unfortunately he was driven off here amidst the first wave and never returned afaik (unless he changed username).

So I just carried the data posting here on in his absence as I was looking it up anyway after he vanished.

I will always go with what I am asked to do by the thread. I certainly will not post when it is no longer necessary. A day that cannot come soon enough for me like everyone else.

Nanny Mcphee

 

[west didsblue]

Are self-tests even reported in the testing data?

I was under the impression that a COVID case can only confirmed as a COVID case by PCR. If you test positive in a self-test you are then told to get a PCR test to confirm it?

It's all hugely complex and sometimes contradictory. This link explains about reporting LFT tests. It seems fairly clear that those reported are covered in the stats. Elsewhere I've seen something that suggests that all tests issued are counted. I've also seen instructions that a positive LFT should make you book a PCR but also that a positive LFT is enough to make you self isolate without further testing. Don't think it's as simple as we test more than anyone else. There's a reason why billions are being wasted!!
https://www.gov.uk/report-covid19-result?priority-taxon=774cee22-d896-44c1-a611-e3109cce8eae

 

[Healdplace]

Wales data:

0 deaths - was 0 last week

701 cases - was 481 last week

3.9% positivity - was 3.6% last week

59 patients - was 39 last week

7 ventilated - was 2 last week

 

[Healdplace]

Scotland data:

BIG IMPROVEMENT AND NICOLA STURGEON CONFIRMS THERE ARE SIGNS OF A SLOW DOWN IN CASES

AS SEEN IN THE NORTH WEST IN PAST WEEK TOO - GOOD NEWS


4 deaths - was 6 last week

2802 cases - was 4234 last week

8,0% positivity - was 10.5% last week

401 patients - up 14 on yesterday - was 275 last week

38 icu ventilated - up 4 on yesterday - was 16 last week


So cases slowing, deaths a little lower and positivity down too.

But the patients and ventilators will trail these decreases by a week or two so are for now still rising,

But if the cases trend down continues that will change soon too hopefully,

 

[Rammy Blue]

Scotland data:

BIG IMPROVEMENT AND NICOLA STURGEON CONFIRMS THERE ARE SIGNS OF A SLOW DOWN IN CASES

AS SEEN IN THE NORTH WEST IN PAST WEEK TOO - GOOD NEWS


4 deaths - was 6 last week

2802 cases - was 4234 last week

8,0% positivity - was 10.5% last week

401 patients - up 14 on yesterday - was 275 last week

38 icu ventilated - up 4 on yesterday - was 16 last week


So cases slowing, deaths a little lower and positivity down too.

But the patients and ventilators will trail these decreases by a week or two so are for now still rising,

But if the cases trend down continues that will change soon too hopefully,

Schools closed too remember.

 

[The Northern Baptist]

Do we have to put the figures on though or can we not have a separate thread for them? I know I don't have to read the thread but reading the figures is very depressing most days as it's usually bad news or phrased in a way that is bad.
I think the press can do us all a favour and stop publishing them too. This is just my opinion but I don't think a football forum should be publishing health figures which are most of them time negative despite our excellent vaccination programme.

I post this with great love and affection for a fellow blue. As an adult, you and only you are responsible for your own mental health. You do what you need to do in order to be healthy mentally. If that involves not reading this thread then that is the course of action to take.

 

[grunge]

The fact they are being written about tells you they are the exception not the norm. Don’t take my word for it, look at the case and death graphs then compare the trends, you can clearly see the lag.

I've been looking at the graphs since before China locked down.

the point is, exceptions happen. even if only 1% were the exception you still have enough lag from a large 2nd wave in Germany to have double digit deaths now. It doesn't just immediately go away.

As that paper I linked too said. 64% discharged from ICU in under 38 days. meaning 36% still in ICU after 38 days. those will discharge or die over time but outliers happen that last way longer. ergo a lag of a couple of months is happening and all the graphics you suggest I look at show that's the case.

and that doesn't take into consideration the lag in paper work. deaths are reported weeks / occasionally months after the event but are counted as "todays" figures on the graphs. For example on NHS England there were deaths from Nov being reported in Jan's figures!.


That being said, Germany's weekend lag is quite excessive.

 

[ayrshire_blue]

Schools closed too remember.

Not wishing to put a negative spin on encouraging numbers, but part of me does wonder if things might settle for now then escalate again as soon as the schools etc go back in autumn. Although obviously with more people vaccinated by then it'll help but depending on demand I don't know how many.

Is it wrong to be wondering if schools were still on during this summer it might actually have helped in the long term?

Maybe I'm missing some important factors and I'm wrong, hopefully someone can tell me so!

 

[Rammy Blue]

Not wishing to put a negative spin on encouraging numbers, but part of me does wonder if things might settle for now then escalate again as soon as the schools etc go back in autumn. Although obviously with more people vaccinated by then it'll help but depending on demand I don't know how many.

Is it wrong to be wondering if schools were still on during this summer it might actually have helped in the long term?

Maybe I'm missing some important factors and I'm wrong, hopefully someone can tell me so!

Hopefully it circulated enough in the last couple of months since delta first appeared in order to get us closer to the threshold, and that this fire break allows it to burn out and drop considerably enough to put us in a better position come September.