Coronavirus (2021) thread

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GM summary:

Once again Bury and Bolton had the best of the high numbers today Though both up week to week,

Bury on 121 was the second highest 'lowest' number in GM since last Winter,

Bolton stayed on 137.

At 179 Tameside was the next lowest.

Manchester back over 400, Wigan and Oldham both on a new high in the upper 200s.

Salford back in the mid 200s.

The other 3 were all in the 190s.

Only Manchester was NOT up week to week and they only just down

There were some pretty large week to week rises too - Rochdale and Salford especially,

Bolton and Bury are going to be pulling away from the other 8 boroughs with the best Pop Scores though they are over 300 so hardly qualify as low.

Things are not getting significantly worse is the best I can say today,

If this proves the worst of the week then I will upgrade that verdict.
 
I use the Zoe app every day, today it's showing 7623 active cases in Manchester but down 140 from last week..first time in a while it's showing cases going down here
I post Zoe app updates most days (not done a report on the data today as been busy).

But it has its issues.

As I have noted in those posts it has had Bury as the worst in the entire UK for some time which is utter nonsense as it is not far off the best in GM. And GM is not close to the worst in the UK.

It can be very good at predicting trends but its day to day numbers go up and down and are easily shifted by small numbers.

It saw Stockport getting worse over the past few days. It is a helpful guide. But I would not base too many conclusions on its fluctuating up and down numbers on any one day, Just over a week say,

The same is true to an extent of Gov UK data too as these cases are really accumulated over the past few days and so go up and down if labs delay results for 24 hours or more.

Like Zoe they are estimates as much as they are actual real numbers, A guide to trends. Not literal reality.
 
Yes it will go up, but if the daily toll peak even reaches a quarter of what we were seeing in the winter months I'd be genuinely surprised.

 
Yes it will go up, but if the daily toll peak even reaches a quarter of what we were seeing in the winter months I'd be genuinely surprised.


As I posted yesterday with the England death data when it came in that I am still hoping it will stay below 100 deaths a day though a bit less hopeful than I was.

But barring an unseen disaster it will get nowhere near the four figure death peak of mid/late January

If it gets to a quarter of that (400/450 or so) I will be very disappointed.

It might - but as yet I see no reason to think that it will be even half that,

Though this pandemic has made fools of any prediction before,
 
The health system in the north African country of Tunisia has "collapsed" due to a surge of coronavirus cases in the country.

Ministry spokesperson Nisaf Ben Alaya said: "We are in a catastrophic situation... the health system collapsed, we can only find a bed in hospitals with great difficulty.

"We are struggling to provide oxygen... doctors are suffering from unprecedented fatigue... the boat is sinking."
Sadly - everywhere will be like this when Delta gets a hold.
 
As I posted yesterday with the England death data when it came in that I am still hoping it will stay below 100 deaths a day though a bit less hopeful than I was.

But barring an unseen disaster it will get nowhere near the four figure death peak of mid/late January

If it gets to a quarter of that (400/450 or so) I will be very disappointed.

It might - but as yet I see no reason to think that it will be even half that,

Though this pandemic has made fools of any prediction before,

I honestly don’t think we should be reporting the deaths any more.
 
The near identical day to day cases between today and yesterday was due to two things:

The big fall in Scotland. Matched by a rise in England.

London, East and South East between them all fell as NW, NE, Yorkshire, East and West Midlands all went up by a few hundred each.
 
I have been there, so I totally get where you're coming from. I would try your best to just...well...forget about it all though. I just went out to get my haircut. I live in town, so after I had it cut, I was in the centre so I popped into boots to grab some bits I needed. The weather was nice, so I got an iced coffee, had a podcast on and got some food from the Vietnamese place on Oxford road. I got home, ate the food with the doors open, watched the highlights from last night again, and forgot all about covid for a couple of hours. I really, really enjoyed it. Then I looked in here and sunk a bit again. It's silly, but it's an easy trap to fall into. There's no point though, cos literally *nothing* changes if I check this thread or not. Nothing. Pandemic is still here. I may as well just try and be in a good mood as opposed to a bad one, right?

My advice. Mute 'covid', 'coronavirus', 'delta' etc etc on Twitter for a week. Delete the news apps off your phone. Ask one of the mods on here to thread ban you so you can't post in here (seriously, I asked Ric to do it for me). I've done all that before. It helped, loads. Trust me. Then just go for a long walk, treat yourself, do anything. Play a game. Put an album on. Go for a run. Go cinema. Go and sit in a cafe and have a coffee. Go for a walk, listen to some music unreasonably loud. Anything. Force yourself to do it. If you feel the urge to check, don't. Do sumat else. Anything. You'll be surprised how much of a difference it makes. Covid is shite, but there is nothing any of us can do on a purely individual basis other than being responsible for our own actions.

It will go up, but it will also go down again. We know cos that has happened. One day it will go and life will move on. It will, cos well..it has to - that's how these things work. Dunno how long it'll take, but probably not as long as the negative parts of our brain thinks. Trust me when I say you're missing out on nothing by micro-analysing the day to day changes. I gave myself panic attacks last year doing this stuff. I've never even been remotely like that in my life, but I was doomscrolling and ruining my entire week. Thing is, there is zero point. I get the urge for info, as I'm like that, but I was accomplishing nothing. You simply have to know when to switch off. Eventually you're accomplishing nothing other than getting yourself down.

Force yourself to try and just forget about it for a couple of days. The stats will be there tomorrow still. Everything else is just opinion, noise and kinda pointless. It doesn't change anything. You can choose to read about covid, or you can choose to read a book or do something else. I am very happy to even DM you a bunch of things to do if you want mate. I read a few books last year that I forced myself to read and the escapism was mint. Totally shook me out of my slump. I know its a lonely, shite time, but you'll be fine mate. Trust me!

Edit - try and get some perspective too btw mate. Everytime I see the numbers and panic, I force myself to remember just how many people there are in this country. 30 a day dying sounds awful, but well...it's low. In 2019, over 600,000 people died in a year. About 1600 per day. None of us likely knew that, cos why would we? Also, saying 2,000 people in hospital sounds dead scary, but there are 1250 NHS hospitals in the UK according to google. Suddenly that doesn't seem that mad does it? These numbers are something we're not used to so we lack perspective. Try and remember that when reading these stats. Life is brutal, but right now it's currently in terms of mortality not that different to how it always has been. Sounds cold, but that's true.

Class that mate. Reminded me of that song ‘Everybody’s free’ by Baz Luhrmann!
 
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