Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Healdplace]

Yes, and, you have just quantified the UK flu risk.

For Covid 19, there is no historic data that allows us to quantify the risk.

Not to mention we only know the flu risk and how to compare it because of publishing the numbers,

To be informed and behave sensibly and in proportion to the risk you need to know that comparative risk.

Though how far these are promoted by the media daily is I agree arguable.

We will come to a point where not publishing the data every day is the right call to make. But in the midst of an escalating wave is not really that time. Not quite yet,

 

[ayrshire_blue]

We supposedly delayed opening up to vaccinate more - not vaccinate less. I know the fact they cannot use AZ is the main problem but they knew that up front surely.

Like in N Ireland (see latest age range data earlier this afternoon) that Scotland age data is edging up as fewer children are catching it,

Any idea on the care home situation in Scotland? As it seems to be coming back in N Ireland,

Sorry, I've no idea on the care home situation here but I'd be interested to know too so if I do see any data then I'll post.

I'm not convinced that the AZ is the main problem any more and it's more to do with lack of demand rather than supply which is holding us back. Life is pretty much open for loads of people, perhaps the vaccine isn't seen as worthwhile or something people are in no rush for at this stage. Better messaging and campaigns maybe help?

 

[Healdplace]

UK HOSPITAL NUMBERS:

ENGLAND PATIENTS 2209 // VENTILATORS 376 - LAST WEEK 1560 // 279

N IRELAND PATIENTS 48 // VENTILATORS 0 - LAST WEEK 21 // 2

SCOTLAND PATIENTS 401 // VENTILATRS 38 - LAST WEEK 275 // 16

WALES PATIENTS 57 // VENTILATORS 5 - LAST WEEK 44 // 3


UK TOTAL-

PATIENTS 2715 - was 1900 last week

VENTILATORS 419 - was 300 last week

 

[feedthegoat27]

Indonesia in real trouble

Bloody hell, see what you mean.

I guess my slim chances of spending Xmas in Bali are right down the shitter now.

1st June, 4824
Yesterday, 34,379

Bad times over there :(

 

[BlueAnorak]

Surely you mean everywhere that hasn’t vaccinated a large proportion of its population; Tunisia has, alas, only fully vaccinated half a million of its eleven million population (lack of vaccine/misinformation). However, it’s also been reluctant to reimpose a strict lockdown for fear of the economy collapsing. If the same happens across North Africa it’ll be a catastrophe.

My point is that countries in Europe that are 6 weeks behind us vaccinating will have a rough ride if they try to.open up.

 

[Healdplace]

Patients and ventilators have already tripled in past 6 weeks or so driven mostly by just Scotland the the North West,

With two other nations and every other England region feeding in now even if (and it is an if) NW and Scotland fall over coming weeks it is hard not see NHS data going up at leat doube where it is now Potentially more.

I assume this is factored in to the opening up decisions as it will not be coming as a shock to the scientists or politicians. Though how much will be too much is the unanswered question.

Hopefully we never need to answer that,

 

[BlueAnorak]

Yes, and, you have just quantified the UK flu risk.

For Covid 19, there is no historic data that allows us to quantify the risk.

Not to mention we only know the flu risk and how to compare it because of publishing the numbers,

To be informed and behave sensibly and in proportion to the risk you need to know that comparative risk.

Though how far these are promoted by the media daily is I agree arguable.

We will come to a point where not publishing the data every day is the right call to make. But in the midst of an escalating wave is not really that time. Not quite yet,

You wanted a comparison point - you have one.
If Delta reaches 113 deaths a day during it's peak it is equivalent to an average flu season.

Of course Delta (R0=5-7) is spreading nearly 3 5 times faster than flu (R0=1.4-2), so there is a difference but you have a comparison point.

 

[Healdplace]

Cases across the regions:


Change in last 24 hrs V seven days ago



SOUTH


East DOWN 236 to 1919 V 1502

London DOWN 80 to 3234 V 2705

South East DOWN 269 to 2806 V 2735

South West UP 96 to 2105 V 1767








MIDLANDS



East UP 109 to 2115 V 1861

West UP 350 to 3082 V 2435


Some big rises here







NORTH



North East UP 306 to 3305 V 2496 - Over 3000 from under 60 cases a month ago. Shows the power of the Delta variant's infectivity.



Yorkshire UP 271 to 3907 V 2810 - Highest here yet and clearly the problem now Delta has taken root. Could soon match or overtake the NW.





AND



NORTH WEST UP 253 to 5203 V 4366 - lowest northern area rise BUT to NW new record high. Hope this is the top of the summit,




Past weeks NW numbers are 4366 - 5033 - 3997 - 3989 - 3945 - 3960 - 4950 - 5203

Equivalent NW numbers a week earlier 3318 - 3440 - 3693 - 2763 - 4168 - 3870 - 4856 - 4366


Today's wk to wk is a bit of a setback on past days optimistic numbers.


GM numbers in past week 1895 - 2217 - 1703 - 1726 - 1678 - 1605 - 2031- 2224



42.7% total in GM of the NW Total - down from 43.4% a week ago,

 

[BobKowalski]

You wanted a comparison point - you have one.
If Delta reaches 113 deaths a day it is equivalent to an average flu season.

There is no comparison point. We only have one year of data, and only six months of data on the vaccines. We are ground zero for data. It’s like trying to assess the competitive performance of a brand new F1 car based on one and a half laps of data.

With flu we have decades of data, we know the median point and the low and high points. You could correlate flu patterns by average winter temperatures, and which months it peaks. Covid we have jackshit by comparison which is why countries have reacted with caution save a few run by authoritarian lunatics.

 

[Rammy Blue]

Spain and Portugal decided to open up for tourism and the delta variant duly arrived. Cases came back from Spain to the Netherlands when school-leaving holiday trips returned after staying in the same locations as visitors from the UK. Those embers only smouldered for two months, but the Dutch decision to lift practically all restrictions at the end of June simply poured paraffin on them. They’re now discussing reimposing sanctions.

Too late though, unfortunately.