Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Rammy Blue]

Sadly - everywhere will be like this when Delta gets a hold.

I’d be interested to know if these countries are aware of what’s going to happen, or have their populations buried their heads in the sand and assumed that decent vaccination rates will hold it at bay?

 

[BlueAnorak]

As I posted yesterday with the England death data when it came in that I am still hoping it will stay below 100 deaths a day though a bit less hopeful than I was.

But barring an unseen disaster it will get nowhere near the four figure death peak of mid/late January

If it gets to a quarter of that (400/450 or so) I will be very disappointed.

It might - but as yet I see no reason to think that it will be even half that,

Though this pandemic has made fools of any prediction before,

As I posted yesterday with the England death data when it came in that I am still hoping it will stay below 100 deaths a day though a bit less hopeful than I was.

But barring an unseen disaster it will get nowhere near the four figure death peak of mid/late January

If it gets to a quarter of that (400/450 or so) I will be very disappointed.

It might - but as yet I see no reason to think that it will be even half that,

Though this pandemic has made fools of any prediction before,

113 deaths a day is the average number of deaths each a day during an average winter flu season (Jan through Mar).

 

[BlueAnorak]

I’d be interested to know if these countries are aware of what’s going to happen, or have their populations buried their heads in the sand and assumed that decent vaccination rates will hold it at bay?

I think The Netherlands has just realised this. Spain and Portugal too. The rest? Who knows?

 

[Gabriel]

Sadly - everywhere will be like this when Delta gets a hold.

Surely you mean everywhere that hasn’t vaccinated a large proportion of its population; Tunisia has, alas, only fully vaccinated half a million of its eleven million population (lack of vaccine/misinformation). However, it’s also been reluctant to reimpose a strict lockdown for fear of the economy collapsing. If the same happens across North Africa it’ll be a catastrophe.

 

[Healdplace]

England Hospital Data:



ADMISSIONS (data 48 hours behind the rest)

458 (Tuesday) - up from 416 Monday and 244 last week

Past Week 244 - 331 - 295 - 307 - 323 - 390 - 416 - 458


NW had 102 of those 458 admissions - up from 71 last week

But was NOT the most - which was NE & Yorkshire on 107 - up from 70

Midlands up from 41 last week to 99 - showing NW is continuing not to be the sole driver and may even be flattening off.



TOTAL ENGLAND PATIENTS 2209 - up 65 today from 2144. Last Thursday it rose by 60, Much the same.

Week to week patients up 659 from 1560.

REGIONAL:-

London up 14 to 411 V 329 last week

Midlands up 14 to 389 V 229 last week

NE & Yorkshire up 22 to 442 V 254 last week

South East up 27 to 170 V 88 last week

YOU CAN CLEARLY SEE THE BIG RISES IN OTHER REGIONS DRIVING THINGS NOW


The North West though FELL by 4 to 596 V 498 last week,


At present clearly the smallest driver of these numbers.


TOTAL VENTILATORS 376. Down 1 from 377. Last Thursday it rose by 15 to 279.

REGIONAL:-

London up 1 to 75 V 74 last week

Midlands up 6 to 70 V 41 last week

NE & Yorkshire down 2 to 64 V 34 last week

South West up 5 to 18 V 8 last week


You can see some numbers there rising fast,


But North West today was DOWN 7 to 113 V 91 last week.

Looks more hopeful,

 

[Gabriel]

Spain and Portugal decided to open up for tourism and the delta variant duly arrived. Cases came back from Spain to the Netherlands when school-leaving holiday trips returned after staying in the same locations as visitors from the UK. Those embers only smouldered for two months, but the Dutch decision to lift practically all restrictions at the end of June simply poured paraffin on them. They’re now discussing reimposing sanctions.

 

[twosips]

Class that mate. Reminded me of that song ‘Everybody’s free’ by Baz Luhrmann!

God, I was obsessed with that song as a kid! That takes me back. I thought it was the most interesting and profound thing I'd ever heard. I was only about 13 or sumat. I've just listened to that for the first time in about 20 years and I've just sat there smiling. Rings true to this day doesn't it. Lovely stuff.

 

[ayrshire_blue]

2,802 infections in Scotland today

133 aged over 65
495 aged 55-64

1004 aged 25-44
1150 aged 0-24

That last category broken down further

334 aged 0-14
816 aged 15-24

******************

4 Deaths

3 aged 75-84
1 aged 45-64

******************

Vaccines

8k first doses (sadly this one seems to be declining and declining now, really not what we want to see at this stage and could have a big impact on all of us going forward)

17k second doses

 

[BobKowalski]

17,000 deaths a year on average.
60% occur in 3 months of the year (Jan through March) 113 a day

Bad years they Treble and in Good years they halve.

Yes, and, you have just quantified the UK flu risk.

For Covid 19, there is no historic data that allows us to quantify the risk.

 

[Healdplace]

We supposedly delayed opening up to vaccinate more - not vaccinate less. I know the fact they cannot use AZ is the main problem but they knew that up front surely.

Like in N Ireland (see latest age range data earlier this afternoon) that Scotland age data is edging up as fewer children are catching it,

Any idea on the care home situation in Scotland? As it seems to be coming back in N Ireland,