Coronavirus (2021) thread

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As was mentioned above we may see a bump in the reported cases now as we're an incubation period on from opening but the drops we;ve seen in recent days are entriely consistent with the trends captured below. It had started to fall in Manchester before the Euros and then it increased, probably as a result of the social contact and this is noticeable in the London trace too.

I repeat that the recent falls aren't in this graph because the dataset I chose is NOT up to date. I prefer this data though because you can get local outputs and see what is happening.

The recent falls we have seen nationally are consistent with the changing historic trends.

The current sharp falls are exaggerated by the effect of the football. Now we have to see if the falls are sustainable after lifting restrictions.



manchester and london.jpg
I checked on the COG UK database and I can see that the proportion of virus, carrying escape mutations is increasing e.g., L18F which is seen in the B.1.351 and P.1 lineages. It's still evolving as we would expect which means that our immune efficiency will decrease.

Going forward we'll have competing pressures that together will shape the epidemic: Declining immune responses, mutation, more people getting infected, more people getting immunised (at home and abroad) and new vaccines that should target the current strain(s) and be more effective.
 
To be fair I think there's plenty of sensible here too.

Very hard to explain the very big falls seen these last few days, hence the caution, but very good to see them nonetheless. Best week of data since delta, by a mile.
There's actually a lot of balance on Blue Moon, compared to many other forums. Makes me proud to be a blue.
 
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