Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Bluesince1979]

So many like this now. Long term isolation is not good for resistance against the standard infections we can get.
Its just one of the reasons why fully opening up now most of society is vaccinated, especially the vulnerable, is critical for our overall health.

This. Too many, way too many are blinded by covid protection and cant see any further

 

[BlueAnorak]

how can it just go down this quick ?


Jakarta's daily cases dropped from 14,619 on 12 July to 2,662 on 25 July, marking a dramatic decrease.

The city's governor Anies Baswedan said the situation is now "very different", and the government is now planned to ease some social restrictions.

According to a microbiologist friend of mine, deseases can spread too quickly for maximising their spread. Flu, for example, is so successful because its a slow burner (R=1.5) so it always has a pool of people available in enclosed spaces that can be infected.
Covid spreads much more quickly in enclosed areas and with Delta having an R0 between 5 and 7 in burns itself out fairly quickly. The current theory is that people who spend most time in these areas quickly catch it, become ill with most then recover, so much so in fact, that local herd immunity in these population bubbles is reached very quickly. That's his take (and others working in his field) as to why Covid blasts along in seemingly 70 day day cycles and then collapses.
If the theory is correct he says you only have to really worry about existing (i.e not novel) diseases with a high R0 that can spread in the open air - like measles for example.

 

[Newman Noggs]

Well if Spain and Greece do go on to amber plus as reported, they’re going to be very busy in the coming weeks. Impossible to police as there will be hundreds of thousands (if not millions) returning from those places that should self isolate.

Very true but, for most people, I think the real and visible threat of a random visit will be sufficient to make them abide by the rules.

 

[Healdplace]

Vaccination data yesterday

Percentage of adult UK population as eligible

88.1% have had first doses - 24, 551 given Sunday (England 88%, N Ireland 82.6%, Scotland 90.1% (Wales 90.1%)

70.5% have had second doses - 117, 956 Sunday (England 77.1%, N Ireland 69.5%, Scotland 69.7%, Wales 78.8%)

Northern Ireland is struggling with cases and hospital data and care home rises the most and as you see is under vaccinating versus the rest.

 

[Healdplace]

GM VACCINE UPDATE:




Latest Vaccine Update by Population Percentage for 10 GM boroughs

Borough/ First Dose / Both Doses - TODAY V YESTERDAY


BOLTON 78.1% / 64.2% V 78.0%/ 63.7% Up 0.6

BURY 79.6% / 65.3% V 79.5% / 64.8% Up 0.6

MANCHESTER 63.0% / 45.6% V 62.9% / 45.2% Up 0.5

OLDHAM 75.2% / 60.4% V 75.1% / 60.0% Up 0.5

ROCHDALE 75.9% / 62.3% V 75.8% / 61.9% Up 0.5

SALFORD 70.1% / 51.9% V 70.0% / 51.6% Up 0.4

STOCKPORT 84.1% / 69.0% V 84.0% / 68.5% Up 0.6

TAMESIDE 79.6% / 65.7% V 79.6%/ 65.6% Up 0.1

TRAFFORD 81.6% / 67.7 V 81.5% / 67.2% UP 0.6

WIGAN 82.8% / 68.2% V 82.8% / 67.8%% Up 0.4




Bolton, Bury. Trafford and Stockport on 0.6 - the most yesterday.

Tameside the least on 0.1 after yesterday

 

[Healdplace]

WALES DATA

FIRST SIGN OF AN UPTICK - THOUGH NOT BY MUCH SO TOO EARLY TO BE OVERLY CONCERNED

0 deaths - was 0 last week

704 cases - was 555 last week

7.5% positivity - was 6.5% last week. FIRST WEEKLY RISE WE HAVE SEEN IN PAST WEEK HERE TOO HOWEVER

128 Patients - was 103 last week

25 Ventilated - was 25 last week

 

[roubaixtuesday]

According to a microbiologist friend of mine, deseases can spread too quickly for maximising their spread. Flu, for example, is so successful because its a slow burner (R=1.5) so it always has a pool of people available in enclosed spaces that can be infected.
Covid spreads much more quickly in enclosed areas and with Delta having an R0 between 5 and 7 in burns itself out fairly quickly. The current theory is that people who spend most in these areas quickly catch it, become ill with most then recovering, so much so, that local herd immunity in these population bubbles is reached very quickly. Thats his take and others working in his field take as to why Covid blasts along in seemingly 70 day day cycles and then collapses.
If the theory is correct he says you only have to really worry about diseases with a high R0 that can spread in the open air - like measles for example.

This effect is called "population heterogeneity" and is included in the more sophisticated models of covid. It reduces the level at which herd immunity effects can be seen.

It's been used quite a bit by "sceptics" to entirely wrongly argue that herd immunity had already been achieved at various points in the pandemic, but the fundamental concept is sound. I'm not aware of any dynamics which imply repeated cycles as you suggest.

See for instance

Science | AAAS

science.sciencemag.org

 

[Healdplace]

ZOE DATA (TODAY)


PREDICTED DAILY CASES

DOWN by 519 to 62, 369. ZOE HAS FLATTENED IN PAST WEEK WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED OF THIS NUMBER

ONGOING SYPTOMATIC CASES - UP ON ZOE

From 783, 674 TO 795, 502- a rise of 11, 828 TODAY V 16, 056 yesterday and over 23 K the day before.

The rise in ongoing cases DO seem to be falling on Zoe now.



Highest watch zones.

1st LONDON down slightly from 1232 /1476 TO 1201 / 1439

3nd NORTHERN IRELAND UP from 554 / 1846 TO 841 / 1969

3rd NE & YORKS down from 1016 / 1406 TO 995 / 1376

4th NORTH WEST down from 914 /1190 TO 883 / 1103



Wales down from 354 / 651 TO 333 / 561

And Scotland - lowest in UK - UP from 341 / 573 TO 343 / 659



All GM boroughs bar Manchester oddly (doing very well in the real data) are FALLING on Zoe.


GM BOROUGHS: ESTIMATED CASES PER MILLION POPULATION TODAY V YESTERDAY


BOLTON DOWN TO 17 636 from 21 915

BURY DOWN TO 6114 from 7118

MANCHESTER UP TO 25, 782 FROM 20 232 - HIGHEST IN NW

OLDHAM DOWN TO 7281 FROM 9864

ROCHDALE DOWN TO 4277 FROM 4404 * BEST IN GM IN LOWER WATCH ZONE

SALFORD DOWN TO 10 679 FROM 13 382

STOCKPORT DOWN TO 13, 478 FROM 14 940 - STILL HIGH BUT FALLEN FOR 5 DAYS NOW

TAMESIDE DOWN HUGE TO 13, 557 FROM 24 971 ZOE HAVE LONG HAD ISSUES WITH CORRECT DATA HERE

TRAFFORD DOWN TO 11, 494 FROM12 820

WIGAN DOWN TO 10, 532 FROM 12 391

 

[west didsblue]

Meanwhile in the US

A dick glued to the forehead is the required proof I think.

Or a MAGA baseball cap.

I guess it amounts to the same thing.

 

[Healdplace]

GM Weekly Pop Data after yesterday:~

Borough / Pop Today / 7 days ago / up or down wk to wk/ Testing is % of local population who have tested positive for Covid over past year.

As ever with Pop going up is bad, going down good - the higher the number the better or worse depending on direction moving. The Pop is total cases in past week versus 100,000 POPulation to even out the comparison versus size and expected cases based on numbers living there.



Oldham 516 / 803 / DOWN 287 Testing positive 13.3%

Salford 514 / 689 / DOWN 175 Testing positive 12.8%

Wigan 491 / 810 / DOWN 319 Testing positive 12.5 %

Rochdale 489 / 704 / DOWN 215 Testing positive 13.0 %

Tameside 479 / 687 / DOWN 208 Testing positive 11.0%

Stockport 426 / 605 / DOWN 179 Testing positive 9.9%

Manchester 405 / 591 / DOWN 186 Testing positive 13.3%

Bury 398 / 601 / DOWN 203 Testing positive 12.2%

Trafford 398 / 550 / DOWN 152 Testing positive 10.1%

Bolton 358 / 501 / DOWN 143 Testing positive 13.1%


MORE GIGANTIC FALLS IN WEEKLY POP - EVERYONE DOWN BY THREE FIGURES IN THE WEEK AND SEVERAL BY OVER 200 AND WIGAN BY 319 POP SCORE POINTS IN A WEEK IS AMAZING

Lowest GM has been in three weeks.

Only two over 500 and only just. Three now in the 300s.

A week ago the spread was 509 to 822. The two worst now within single figures of the best last week is quite some drop,


BUT GM NOW AN ALL FIVE FIGURE OVERALL POP SCORE ACROSS THE FULL PANDEMIC REGION AS WE KNEW IT WOULD BE YESTERDAY

Stockport up by 36 - its lowest in ages - to just creep into the 10 K club on 10, 007 - and Trafford up by 49 to 10, 113.

So Stockport's lead up by 13 to 106 over a vastly improved Trafford. ~

This race will go on.

Bolton again was the best Pop Score in GFM - just 34 - pipping Stockport's best day in a while. Bolton up to 13, 117

Bury up 50 to 12, 292

Manchester up 48 to 13, 337 still the highest in GM - just! By 2.

Oldham up 54 to 13, 335 - and I suspect will have the highest Pop Score in GM today. We will see.

Rochdale up 59 to 13, 114. GM has the most members of the 13K club in any part of the UK.

Salford up 44 to 12, 845 and will be the next into the 13K club one day this week.

Tameside up 46 o 11, 169

And Wigan up just 51 - another low here for some time - to 12, 596.