Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Healdplace]

I read I think it was Adam Kucharski who put forward one theory for the rapid drop in cases and why they MIGHT start bumping up quite rapidly again sooner than many would expect. A theory he put forward that was due to the extremely high case rates of the last few weeks, we've had so many people isolating that it's served in effect as a 'mini lockdown' ie with close contacts of many of those cases going into isolation and subsequently not spreading disease etc.

As I say, it was a theory and nothing more than that, but interesting all the same.

That is an interesting idea I had never considered. No idea if it is plausible but maybe. Guess time will tell,

 

[Healdplace]

Quick Summary of cases:

London still the highest region and up by the most today - just under 1000 of the 2000 or so increase.

North West up 589 of them. So not the main driver of todays cases as it was up to a week or two back.

The rest up by a few hundred each commensurate with size.

Week to week the NW falls by 2012. The previous week to week it fell 612. The week before that it rose 1009. The week before it rose 837.

 

[chesterbells]

Has there not been any mention of post-injection pain? It's very common in people who inject steroids (medicinal or recreational...) but I've never heard of it lasting such a long time. Also steroids are delivered with a much larger bore of needle so I'd have attributed it to that.

Hmm, I can’t speak to anyone else, but I know that’s not a factor in my case(!), or are you saying it might be a result of too large a needle being used to deliver the covid vaccine? I have wondered about needle production over the last 12 months - must be something to buy shares in!

 

[Healdplace]

Greater Manchester again shares are good as a percentage of the NW numbers.

GM up 130 of the NW rise of 589 today - to 1381

Salford falls quite a bit, Most others up a modest number. Stockport up 40 and the second highest behind Manchester for first time in ages,

But these are just day to day ups and downs as cases are not miles apart in GM. (91 to 146 for every borough bar Manchester)

May well be two other boroughs tomorrow with the high card.

Week to week GM down 837 of the NW 2012 fall.

Every single borough in GM down a fair bit week to week. Some by over 100. So more big Pop Score falls.

The lowest wk to wk fall is Bury. 'Just' 52 - and they had the smallest cases today - just 91. Bolton and Trafford were also both in the 90s.

Stockport up by 40 to 146 but still down 95 week to week.

That 146 in Stockport was the highest today outside Manchester which was up to 320 - a rise of 62 on the day but also 112 down on last week.

Wk to wk falls are more important than day to day fluctuations.

IF numbers keep going up from here to this time next week we might have a problem.

Right now too early to be sure if we do, Not whilst GM POP Scores are all falling.

 

[paulchapo]

Just an update to my posts last night @artfuldodger @twosips @paulchapo @staffsblue - got a call back from GP surgery this afternoon… and basically it had them flummoxed, and she agreed 3 months was a long time to have a painful arm. It was as if I was the first person to ever mention it to them - she said she’d do some research on it and speak to me again on Wednesday of next week. Only suggestion in the meantime was to rub some ibrogel into the arm - as a topical anti inflammatory she thought it might ‘kickstart’ some kind of a healing process in the area. I’ll certainly give it a go …

I had a phone conversations with my doctor in April before my second jab about it. All she said is she though it was a coincidence it started after my first jab. I told her well that's some coincidence as I've never had the pain there before in my life before the jab

 

[True_Blue69]

Good positive article here about how we have reached herd immunity and effectively calling a truce with the virus as it now becomes less deadly due to antibodies.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...finally-nearing-holy-grail-herd-immunity/amp/

 

[Healdplace]

QUICK SUMMARY OF ENGLAND HOSPITAL DATA

Patients FELL by 126 today! Not been a drop like that lately, 5056 in now.

Huge drop in London but most regions fell a bit.

NW still the fourth most in - with London, NE & Yorkshire and Midlands all more.



Admissions same story - (from Tuesday as this part of the data only is 2 days old recall)

816 -down from 830 Monday and only up from 805 the previous Tuesday.

So the admissions plateaued over the pa st week consistent with the cases drop being real in more than just statistics.

Again on Tuesday the NW was the fourth of the seven regions with 116 admissions versus 141 last week.

NE & Yorkshire down wk to wk too from 197 to 178 - and was 220 on Monday.

MIdlands up from 119 last week to 151 this and London from 117 to 162.

Ventilators up 17 - though sadly 10 of them in the NW - so not out of the woods yet.

But the same three nations as above all still have more people on ventilators than the NW

A change that occurred slowly over the past 2 weeks even before the cases fell last week.

 

[Marriedtoablue]

Has there not been any mention of post-injection pain? It's very common in people who inject steroids (medicinal or recreational...) but I've never heard of it lasting such a long time. Also steroids are delivered with a much larger bore of needle so I'd have attributed it to that.

steroids are IM the same as the Covid jab - therefore blue needle for both.

 

[Healdplace]

LATEST WEEKLY ONS SURVEY OF COVID ANTI BODY % OF POPULATIONS BY AGE

The data comes from testing blood donors

AGE % AS LAST WEEK / AS NOW

17 to 29 FROM 77.8% TO 87.4%

30 to 39 FROM 93.9% TO 95.2%

40 to 49 FROM 96.5% TO 96.5%

50 to 59 FROM 98.0% TO 98.3%

60 to 69 FROM 99.4% TO 99.2%

70 - 84 FROM 99.3% TO 99.4%



These antibodies come from having had Covid or vaccination.

They have been escalating every week.

Hard to see how we will not be at herd immunity yet if that is even possible - though the numbers for the under 17s will be lower and they have been driving the cases for weeks - hence why the school breaks have likely made such a big difference.

We surely should be using the break to vaccinate them. Or we may see the same thing start again in September.

Unless we really can achieve a herd immunity level with Covid.

The FALL in the 60 - 69 age group - small as it is - seems odd.

But the big RISE in the youngest group is easier to understand. They have been focus of vaccinattions lately and also the main group catching Covid as we have become more open.

 

[Healdplace]

UK HOSPITAL NUMBERS TODAY


PATIENTS V LAST WEEK



ENGLAND 5056 V 4230

N IRELAND 234 V 198

SCOTLAND 490 V 488

WALES 142 V 107

UK TOTAL 5922 V 5023


Under 899 up week to week - lowest increase in two weeks


VENTILATORS V LAST WEEK



ENGLAND 765 V 612

N IRELAND 25 V 5

SCOTLAND 60 V 58

WALES 26 V 25


UK TOTAL 876 V 700