Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Len Rum]

Healdplace has been posting positivity % so this is bullshit as that has been dropping as well.

No need to get arsy mate.
If the mix of testing is now more heavily weighted towards older people then it is possible that the positivity rate relative to earlier testing is dropping for this reason.

 

[Blue and still suffering]

Bit disappointing.
More worrying is the guy from Zoe App thinks the Govt case figures are low due to fewer young people and school children being tested who were previously driving the figures up.
Possibly hospital admissions and deaths are now the key indicators rather than cases.

If that was the case then surely the figures would have continued to fall for the last two days rather than rise upwards again.

 

[Healdplace]

The hospital data is crucial right now. More so than cases.

I do post the hospital data in here every evening Len if you want to look back and track them day to day.

And posted earlier this afternoon the past month data week to week comparisons.

There is little question from that Scotland started falling 2 or 3 weeks ago and it translated into a stall in hospital numbers a week or 10 days ago.

A similar thing has happened in the North West to the hospital data a week or so on from Scotland

Patients and ventilators gone from the most to the fourth most in a week or so.

These are NOT going to happen if a real fall was not occurring.

Though we are only sure of that in two places.

A lot of factors are at work.

We were bound to see now some impact from opening up fully last Monday. There is a lag before that becomes visible and then a lag into patient numbers rising, ventilated and then sadly deaths.

So - in effect - two parts of the UK may have started the fall but all parts are now adding in the opening up additions.

So the result is a reduction in the fall.

Though this is purely my non expert guess. Plenty of experts will be far better placed to judge.

 

[True_Blue69]

No need to get arsy mate.
If the mix of testing is now more heavily weighted towards older people then it is possible that the positivity rate relative to earlier testing is dropping for this reason.

Wasn’t being arsey towards you was referring to the Zoe app guy. Apologies if it came across as directed at you.

 

[west didsblue]

If only we were. Need to move from RoRo ferries to container traffic to secure the border against disease. We also need to kill flights as soon as problems emerge elsewhere on the world.

Or stop just waving people through from Covid hotspots like we did in March last year from Spain and April this year from India.

 

[Len Rum]

The hospital data is crucial right now. More so than cases.

I do post the hospital data in here every evening Len if you want to look back and track them day to day.

And posted earlier this afternoon the past month data week to week comparisons.

There is little question from that Scotland started falling 2 or 3 weeks ago and it translated into a stall in hospital numbers a week or 10 days ago.

A similar thing has happened in the North West to the hospital data a week or so on from Scotland

Patients and ventilators gone from the most to the fourth most in a week or so.

These are NOT going to happen if a real fall was not occurring.

Though we are only sure of that in two places.

A lot of factors are at work.

We were bound to see now some impact from opening up fully last Monday. There is a lag before that becomes visible and then a lag into patient numbers rising, ventilated and then sadly deaths.

So - in effect - two parts of the UK may have started the fall but all parts are now adding in the opening up additions.

So the result is a reduction in the fall.

Though this is purely my non expert guess. Plenty of experts will be far better placed to judge.

I agree.
Hospital data is far more crucial now.
I think the fall in cases is significant and is genuine.
However it might have been somewhat exaggerated by a combination of fewer tests, a change in the age groups being tested and the exceptionally warm weather.
Worth reading the comments of the Zoe App guy on the sky news website.

 

[03 March 2002]

Just an update to my posts last night @artfuldodger @twosips @paulchapo @staffsblue - got a call back from GP surgery this afternoon… and basically it had them flummoxed, and she agreed 3 months was a long time to have a painful arm. It was as if I was the first person to ever mention it to them - she said she’d do some research on it and speak to me again on Wednesday of next week. Only suggestion in the meantime was to rub some ibrogel into the arm - as a topical anti inflammatory she thought it might ‘kickstart’ some kind of a healing process in the area. I’ll certainly give it a go …

Has there not been any mention of post-injection pain? It's very common in people who inject steroids (medicinal or recreational...) but I've never heard of it lasting such a long time. Also steroids are delivered with a much larger bore of needle so I'd have attributed it to that.

 

[ayrshire_blue]

I read I think it was Adam Kucharski who put forward one theory for the rapid drop in cases and why they MIGHT start bumping up quite rapidly again sooner than many would expect. A theory he put forward that was due to the extremely high case rates of the last few weeks, we've had so many people isolating that it's served in effect as a 'mini lockdown' ie with close contacts of many of those cases going into isolation and subsequently not spreading disease etc.

As I say, it was a theory and nothing more than that, but interesting all the same.

 

[Gabriel]

In the Netherlands, they’ve traced an outbreak at a nightclub in Enschede on June 26th. They’ve worked out that 1 infected person managed to infect 180 of the 800 people in attendance.

 

[Healdplace]

I have read what he says Len. Thanks for pointing to him. And as I said earlier in a post the testing in England makes it needlessly hard to establish positivity numbers and England do not focus on them in the way Scotland or Wales do.

But where they are clearly tracked these have been going down so it is not just fewer tests causing the drop. Though that will have had an impact.

I will wait until the middle of next week before being sure of any change in pattern. As mid week usually shows an upturn in cases every week and they fall back over weekend / early week.

Week to week comparisons are the best guide. Which is why I focus a lot on Pop Score numbers here as they in essence are that week to week trend which is far more helpful as an indicator of path than cases that will go up and down day to day. For all sorts of reasons.

Basically if Pop scores are going down then things are good. If they are going down a lot then they are very good.

If they are going up the reverse is true.

These numbers matter much more - as does the hospital data - rather than the day to day cases that will always fluctuate and mask the true path of where we are going.