Do you reckon we will head into another restrictions or even lockdown in next few months based on current trajectory of rates ?
I am not sure. What happens in England schools may be the real issue. As you have to assume that is why cases rose in Scotland so much in past week or two - though it started before schools there I think.
England has not shown any evidence of going up or down much at all right now. Which on the face of it is odd as only the schools not yet back are the obvious difference.
However, N Ireland - who got this wave last - is already seeming to slow and never went very high. Wales is hard to call and have a high spillover from England people with second homes and caravans there and visiting and they have reported quite a few of the daily cases attributed to Wales live in England.
And if the Scotland peak is short lived and the fall continues we might see any or all or something else entirely in England if schools drive a rise up here as it will be so many weeks after the other opening ups that should be driving cases - such as football.
So I doubt anyone will leap until it is clear action needs to be taken.
The hospital data is the key and THAT has been rising but is nowhere near where it was in past waves and staying fairly flat.
Scotland has 585 in hospital and 54 on icu ventilator beds today from 6000 or so cases.
It peaked in the Winter wave at 2053 patients (5 times as many) and 161 (3 times as many) on ventilators in hospital around mid January. Cases then were actually about ONE THIRD only of those today. As we were not testing as many as now to identify less severe cases.
So you can probably triple the difference.
In other words around 15 times as many people per reported case in January ended up as a patient than do so now.
It will be about 9 times as many with the Ventilators.
So IF we were seeing anything like 8000 + patients and 450 on ventilators in Scotland we would be in real trouble.
But we are not even close and likely never will be.
Nothing much changes with England just bigger numbers all round.
The vaccines have been a giant game changer and things we would have done in January are not necessarily required now if the hospital data pans out like that.
THIS data is the thing to watch - not cases - the majority of which are in essence just positive tests of people who will never go near hospital. A thing that was significantly less true in all past waves BECAUSE we did not yet have the vaccination programme.
