Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Healdplace]

England cases FALL again as 11, 214 of todays cases were in the other 3 nations,

20, 967 today - was 21, 324 yesterday & 23, 474 last week

This is the lowest the split of UK cases has ever been in England as far as I can recall

 

[Healdplace]

NORTH WEST & GM HIGHLIGHTS



Gives me no pleasure to say Zoe was right yet again. Stockport is in trouble. Had its highest cases in ages today and almost beat Manchester.

As the Zoe report of the GM numbers predicted earlier Andy Burnham needs to find out what is going on in Stockport as it looks close to becoming the worst in the North West and already is by far the worst in GM. Bringing the other boroughs down who are largely doing well. Again just as Zoe predicted. Has a feel of Bolton in April before it was recognised as a problem.

We need to know why Stockport is bucking the trend of England and GM in falling day to day. Have schools opened early there or something - does anyone know?

 

[Healdplace]

REGIONAL HIGHLIGHTS

NW had a poor day too - despite the England fall. UP by 580 on the day to 3186. Easily the most.

Again as Zoe predicted earlier - NW going up when others fell. In fact NW is now clear as the highest single region again,

Though there is SOME good news - it did fall week to week - though only by 89 from 3275

The biggest falls were in the Southern regions that are dropping cases fast. London down 342 and South East down 427.

 

[Healdplace]

GREATER MANCHESTER V NORTH WEST

Happily as it was just Stockport having a terrible day the numbers from the rest of GM meant it was still a good day for the 10 boroughs in toto.

Greater Manchester only rose day to day by 233 of the NW rise of 580 - about the expected share. Indeed Stockport on its own was responsible for 57 and Bolton 51 of that number and Manchester another 48. Or Stockport would have been above it.

GFM total 1199 today

GM split of the NW total today was 37.6% - which is only a little up on yesterday's 37.1% - so still better than average based on population.

Week to week North West also did fall by 89.

Of this Greater Manchester fell by 85 - almost all of it which means the GM boroughs week to week did pretty well

Indeed Wigan. Salford and Rochdale had good week to week falls, others had smaller ones and only Stockport had that huge rise week to week from 139 to 190 or it would have been even better.

The Wk to Wk GM percentage of the NW seven days ago was 39.2% - so 37.6% today represents a good week to week fall for GM over the North West.

That is the most important number week to week as it evens out day to day test fluctuations

Stockport lost 21 points in one go on Trafford in the lowest overall Pop Score - which shows its bad day clearly.

Hopefully whatever is going on there can be sorted out.

These things go in cycles and SK will be back challenging for better things soon I expect. Though it would be good to figure out why.


And on the plus side we seem to be able to trust the Zoe data far better than we ever did.

 

[Healdplace]

ENGLAND HOSPITAL DATA

OVER PAST 4 DAYS

ADMISSIONS - THESE ARE FROM THURSDAY, FRIDAY, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY REMEMBER (48 hours old)



LAST SUN // TH // FR// SAT // SUN

726 // 777 // 749 // 688 // 701


So down Sunday to Sunday but this Sunday was a Bank Holiday.


By regions (THIS SUNDAY v LAST SUNDAY) :-


LONDON 118 V 134

MIDLANDS 145 V 135

NE & YORKSHIRE 136 V 146



AND

NORTH WEST 90 V 125


So NW admitted the least of the four big regions again - whilst London & NE/Yorkshire also fell wk to wk and only <Midlands had MORE admissions week to week.

 

[Healdplace]

ENGLAND HOSPITAL DATA



PATIENTS

THIS DATA IS FOR FRI // SAT // SUN // MON // TUE (Today)


5889 // 5756 // 5855 // 6002 // 6293


So numbers not up much over the Bank Holiday BUT there seems to have been a big jump up in admissions today - unsurprisingly after a long weekend. The admissions for today will not come until Thursday as these are always 48 hour behind. But the above gives the game away on what to expect.


Last week the equivalent numbers were



5576 // 5575 // 5749 //6000 // 5911


So this week up 404 V last week up 335 over the weekend - Not a huge change.

Though Tue/Wed last week saw a fall of 89 and this week a BIG rise of 291 - but again possibly just a consequence of the long weekend.


WEEK TO WEEK: Rise of 382 FROM 5911 t0 6293.

Previous week Rise of 474 FROM 5437 to 5911


So the weekly rise is actually down.




BY REGIONS

Today - Up/Down Today V Last Week - Up/down over week


LONDON 1255 - UP 63 V 1189 - 1178 - UP 77

MIDLANDS 1280 - UP 76 V 1199 - UP 81

NE & YORKSHIRE 1158 - UP 54 V 1131 - UP 27


AND


NORTH WEST 949 - UP 46 V 922 - UP 27

So even the NW is up week to week but by a modest amount.


The other regions East up from 502 to 547 today

South East up from 547 to 625 today

And South West up from 432 to 479

These smaller regions - especially the SW - are rising too now.


Headline:- Numbers rising but NOT increasing by much week to week. Not enough to cause concern yet.

 

[True_Blue69]

Gives me no pleasure to say Zoe was right yet again. Stockport is in trouble. Had its highest cases in ages today and almost beat Manchester.

As the Zoe report of the GM numbers predicted earlier Andy Burnham needs to find out what is going on in Stockport as it looks close to becoming the worst in the North West and already is by far the worst in GM. Bringing the other boroughs down who are largely doing well. Again just as Zoe predicted. Has a feel of Bolton in April before it was recognised as a problem.

We need to know why Stockport is bucking the trend of England and GM in falling day to day. Have schools opened early there or something - does anyone know?

Schools open next week. People need to realise it’s not just schools driving cases. Scotland was going up well before schools went back but the easiest thing to say is ‘it’s due to schools going back’

More likely that as Stockport has always been near the lower end of cases there are more people to infect as less with natural immunity. Are many getting hospitalised? If not doesn’t matter whatsoever.

 

[Healdplace]

ENGLAND HOSPITAL DATA



VENTILATORS


LAST FR// SAT // SUN // MON // TODAY

874 // 835 // 850 // 859 // 879


So up 5 over the long weekend.


Last week the same days were:

857 //858 // 863 // 845 // 857

Stayed the same over the weekend

UP 22 week to week today V UP 17 the week before.




By regions (TODAY v FRIDAY V LAST TUESDAY) :-


LONDON 223 V 207 V 214 - UP 9 in week

MIDLANDS 182 V 185 V 180 - UP 2 in week

NE & YORKSHIRE 133 V 139 V 146 - DOWN 13 in week



AND

NORTH WEST 119 V 1116 V 107 - UP 12 in week


SADLY AS YOU SEE NORTH WEST HAS STARTED TO GO UP. IN FACT IT ROSE BY 10 TODAY - FROM 109 to 119 - HALF THE ENTIRE ENGLAND DAILY RISE

Looks like the North West had a big influx 0f patients today and of people being escalated onto ventilators





The other regions LAST WEEK V TODAY

East level at 79 TO 79

South East from 70 to 84 - UP 14 - WORST WK TO WK REGIONAL RISE

And South West from 61 to 59


So ventilator numbers in NW have become an issue in past week

 

[Healdplace]

UK PATIENTS AS OF TODAY:



ENGLAND 6293 SCOTLAND 585 NORTHERN IRELAND 391 WALES 242

UK TOTAL 7511


Up just over 500 across the weekend.




VENTILATED UK AS OF TODAY


ENGLAND 879 SCOTLAND 54 NORTHERN IRELAND 37 WALES 40

UK TOTAL 1010



Up 25 over the weekend and sadly tops 1000 for the first time since last Winter.

 

[Healdplace]

Schools open next week. People need to realise it’s not just schools driving cases. Scotland was going up well before schools went back but the rest thing to say is ‘it’s due to schools going back’

More likely that as Stockport has always been near the lower end of cases there are more people to infect as less with natural immunity. Are many getting hospitalised? If not doesn’t matter whatsoever.

Yes I agree and did say earlier that Scotland was rising before schools went back making it all the more puzzling England kept falling.

Though the regions falling most are in the south.

You may be right about Stockport - with the lowest cases per population across the entire pandemic - having more susceptible. Could be as simple as that. Though Stockport also has the best vaccination numbers in the ten boroughs too which should balance things out.

Sadly the government hospital data locally is well out of date

But admissions into Stockport between 15 & 22 Aug were 5 - 6 - 8 - 5 - 6 - 6 - 5 - 6

Which looks pretty low and consistent.

On those same days it posted these cases 106 - 151 - 112 - 118 - 148 - 167 - 146 - 108

Today it posted 190.

Nothing very obvious there .

Patients IN hospital in Stockport for that same week above were:

11 - 18 - 22 - 28 - 29 - 25 - 19 - 21

Again no exponential rise


22 on Aug 24 is the latest number for here.

There were 3 or 4 on ventilators in Stockport between 15 and 22 Aug and 2 on 24 Aug (latest number)

So again a fraction of the daily cases. Which I agree mean little unless you see this disconnect.