Coronavirus (2021) thread

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ZOE APP NEWS

TODAY'S UPDATE



Predicted cases DOWN for third day running.

Though by 1250 (biggest drop in a while after falls of 251 and 78 previous days) - on 50, 626 FROM 51, 876


However, ongoing symptomatic cases also FELL for fourth day running.

DOWN to 729, 890 FROM 736, 187 - which at a fall of 6297 is the biggest in a while - from a fall of 1720 yesterday & of 452 and 71 in previous two days.

A promising trajectory.
 
ZOE APP DATA

TODAYS DATA

REGIONS:-




North West FALLS a little again to 726 / 954 FROM 735 / 967

NW stays at FOURTH of the 12 regions.


Behind Scotland (still TOP) and Wales (now second)

THOUGH ONLY SCOTLAND NOW LEFT IN THE HIGHEST WATCH ZONE AS WALES DROPS OUT TODAY


Yorkshire still third.

Both East Midlands in 5th (673/925) and North East now down in sixth (577 / 953) are also in the middle watch zone.

London is now the lowest region in the UK.

Alongside West Midlands (589/831), South East (608/735), South West (565 / 731), Northern Ireland (314 / 1080) and East (556 / 725).

London HAS been falling for days and now on best numbers in a while on just 559 / 717


Scotland TOP is VERY slightly DOWN - on 940 / 1236 FROM 941 / 1240


WALES in second is DOWN on 822 / 1166 FROM 833 / 1184


Yorkshire in third is DOWN on 794 / 1068 FROM 816 / 1098



N Ireland is also DOWN on 314 / 1080 FROM 320 / 1105
 
ZOE APP DATA


TODAY'S DATA


GREATER MANCHESTER:-


Bury - very surprisingly - shows a BIG jump up on Zoe making it the highest in GM. Which seems unlikely.
UP on 18, 198 FROM 9988.


Tameside - much more credibly - shoots up too into second place UP on 17, 001 FROM 12, 092

Wigan also credibly is up to third - though DOWN - on 15, 404 FROM 16, 114

Manchester is fourth though DOWN on 14, 643 FROM 17, 029

Salford recent rises but better day yesterday match it going down to fifth spot DOWN on 13, 961 FROM 16, 141.

Trafford falls too after a good day yesterday into sixth DOWN on 13, 379 FROM 16, 752

Rochdale seventh also DOWN on 12, 984 FROM 15, 920

Bolton in eighth staying flat but a bit high as in real data DOWN on 10, 383 FROM 10, 951


So GM has just 2 boroughs now in the lower watch zone:-


Stockport is now only ninth highest from top a week ago - after a run of better numbers in the real data but is UP today a little again on 8898 FROM 8048 after seven straight falls here. Matching its real cases going up yesterday for first time in a few days.

So - if you trust this data !

Oldham is still (just) the lowest region but also UP on 8506 FROM 7459

We will see!





REST OF NORTH WEST


West Lancashire - the region between Bootle, Formby and Southport in west and Wigan has suddenly PLUMMETED DOWN from over 30K but is UP today on 10, 097 FROM 8663.


Liverpool DOWN on 9716 FROM 11, 304

AND St Helens DOWN on 20, 076 FROM 23, 701- But still the most in the North West.

also

Though Sefton (the coastal part of Merseyside and Lancashire) is DOWN on 15, 738 FROM 18, 061

And the Blackpool coast area in the sun and with the illuminations opening is DOWN a tad on 11, 355 FROM 11, 380

Chorley is DOWN again on 12, 102 FROM 13, 949




Cheshire East - is still low yet slightly UP again on 6259 FROM 5903 - but flat for days and behind everywhere in GM.

And much better than Chester and Cheshire West - like other western parts of the NW driving the regions cases - much higher though DOWN on 15, 742 FROM 16, 126
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS

99 WITH 12 NORTH WEST - Last week 118 with 20 NW, Wk before 100 with 10. NW

Very flat numbers here which is hopeful

BY REGION:-

East 18, London 16, Midlands 26, NE & Yorkshire 19, North West 12, South East 2, South West 6


Most by trust:- Bedfordshire 8, Hull 7, Nottingham 6

NW Trusts:- 5 Manchester, 3 St Helens and 1 each in Pennine Acute (Oldham/Rochdale), Salford, Wigan & Wirral.

BY AGE:-


20 - 39 (4), 40 - 59 (14), 60 - 79 (47), 80 PLUS (34)

AGAIN NOTE AS OFTEN LATELY THE OVER 80s NOT THE MOST
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS

SEP 3 has reached 98 deaths and looks set to be the first single day in England hospitals to have 100 deaths in 6 months.

It is currently an outlier day. No other days are over 89.

The last time more than 98 were recorded was 112 on MAR 12

FOR COMPARISON ON 3 SEP 2020 THERE WERE JUST 4 DEATHS.~

AND ON SEP 8 (A YEAR AGO YESTERDAY) THERE WERE 11.


10 WERE ADDED YESTERDAY IN THE FIRST FEW HOURS. IT WILL BE IN THE 70s/80s BY MONDAY.
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS


We now have another 7 days totals to compare:

HERE ARE THE LAST FOUR WEEKS OF FIVE DAY TOTALS (AS IN TOTAL AFTER 5 DAYS REPORTING)

WEEK // CASES PER DAY // TOTAL FOR THE 7 DAYS // (TOTAL NOW AFTER ANY ADD ONS SINCE)

08 AUG - 14 AUG // 57 - 40 - 48 - 57 - 66 - 53 - 69 // 390 // (TOTAL NOW 451)

15 AUG - 21 AUG // 60 - 56 - 66 - 57 - 65 - 71 - 73 // 448 // (TOTAL NOW 485)

22 AUG - 28 AUG // 78 - 71 - 82 - 57 - 62 - 73 - 70 // 493 // (TOTAL NOW 553)

29 AUG - 04 SEP // 69 - 73 - 77 - 62 - 69 - 88 - 70 // 508 // (TOTAL NOW 539)



YOU WILL NOTICE THE 5 DAY TOTALS ARE CLEARLY SLOWING THEIR INCREASE WEEK TO WEEK

BUT - AN IMPORTANT CAVEAT - THE NUMBERS ADDED ON AFTER 5 DAYS ARE GOING UP AND NEED TO BE REMEMBERED AS _ OBVIOUSLY - THE MOST RECENT DAYS HAVE NOT HAD THE SAME TIME TO ADD ON AND WILL GO UP MORE.
 
SCOTLAND DATA

12 deaths - was 17 last week - some better news at least

6836 cases - was 6400 last week - still up but at least fairly flattish now

10.8% positivity - was 11.1% last week - again fairly flat and slightly down

928 patients - up 45 on yesterday & was 624 last week - a near 50% rise is not good news

87 ventilated icu - up 5 on yesterday & was 55 last week - these too are now rising rather a lot

Scotland hospital data is clearly worse than England right now but has had these high cases for a while.

If England goes up in the same way it will not be good given the far higher overall numbers it will involve. But for now it is still flat.

BUT.....schools returned 2 weeks earlier in Scotland so no time to be complacent. Hopefully not but this could be showing the next week or two south of the border.
 
NORTHERN IRELAND DATA

8 deaths - was 12 last week

1831 cases - was 793 last week ( today is up on lately but last week was curiously low)

5.5% positivity - was 4.9% last week

Weekly cases total 10, 204 - was 9892 yesterday & 9393 last week

125 CARE HOME outbreaks - was 126 yesterday & 135 last week - Happily this is helping deaths to fall too.

472 patients - up 20 on yesterday & was 417 last week

34 ventilated - up 1 on yesterday - was 38 last week
 
NORTHERN IRELAND WEEKLY CASES BY AGE

The basis of the N I tests are made crystal clear by the following.

0 - 19 (4200) 41.2%

20 - 39 (2586) 25.4%

40 - 59 (2223) 21.8%

60 - 79 (906) 8.9%

80 PLUS (286) 2.7%

A HUGE RISE IN THE NUMBER OF 19 AND UNDER IN PAST WEEK IS DRIVING THE INCREASE

THE REST PRETTY MUCH UNCHANGED

SO SCHOOL TESTING IS WHY CASES ARE RISING
 
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