Coronavirus (2021) thread

[west didsblue]

for those unvaccinated and havn't had it, they are at the exact same level of risk as before.

Is that right? I thought that the scientists were saying that the evolution of the virus itself would make it less dangerous eventually, irrespective of vaccine status or levels of antibodies. I could be wrong.

 

[Healdplace]

Tim Spector posted this on his Twitter,

We need imaginative ways to market Covid measures like this instead of dull press conferences that everyone tunes out from .

This is how to get people vaccinated!

 

[grunge]

Is that right? I thought that the scientists were saying that the evolution of the virus itself would make it less dangerous eventually, irrespective of vaccine status or levels of antibodies. I could be wrong.

from my understanding it will eventually but takes decades. right now the shift is purely down to vaccine/natural immunity.

currently we're still with the Delta Variant. that hasn't changed so its effects will be the same for those unvaccinated or not had it before.

 

[Healdplace]

WALES DATA

2 deaths - was 8 last week

2727 cases - was 2618 last week

9.3% positivity - was 8.9% last week

496 patients - was 512 last week

49 ventilated - was 49 last week

 

[Healdplace]

ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS

101 with 17 North West - last week - was 92 with 12 NW last week & 118 with 12 NW week before

BY REGION:- 11 East, 10 London, 26 Midlands, 26 NE & Yorkshire, 17 North West, 4 South East, 7 South West

NW Trusts:

Liverpool 6, Manchester 5, Warrington 2 and 1 each in Salford, Southport, Stockport & Wirral

Numbers so far this week versus last week day to day are still slightly down. No date is close as yet to three figures. Though 20 September is on 88 after 4 days the next highest on 19 September is on 70 after 5 days - the lowest 5 day total in 9 days.

The last 100 + date remains 9 September on 104. Though 10 September is now on 99.

The peak of this wave remains on 3 September which is on 105.

 

[Healdplace]

ZOE APP NEWS

TODAY'S UPDATE

NOT GOOD NEWS TODAY.

Predicted cases are

UP FROM 46, 300 TO 47, 945 - a rise of of 1645 UP FROM a rise of 1219 & 622 & 719 in the days before.

It WAS 45, 889 last week - a RISE week to week of 2056



Ongoing symptomatic cases also more happily FALL after a big rise yesterday.


FROM 669, 252 TO 665 , 763 - A FALL of 3489 after a RISE of 14, 718 following FALLS of 3973 yesterday and falls of 3256, 7276, 10, 561, 1392, 5951,4129, 4595. in past week.

Though this is still 11K UP on two days ago.

IT WAS 680, 992 last week. A weekly fall of 15, 229 - lower than yesterdays week to week fall of 17, 691 and WAY down from the falls of 36, 638 and 37, 160 wk to wk in preious two days.

There is always a lag to the change in ongoing cases after a rise or fall in daily case numbers as ongoing cases persist and are not just counted on the day of first report.

 

[Healdplace]

ZOE APP DATA

TODAYS DATA

REGIONS:-




North West moves UP again today and rises into FOURTH place too.

Matching the real big cases rise yesterday is no surorise:

UP to 773 / 1027 FROM 750 / 997. Passes the 1000 level and since highest numbers since July.


WALES stay top and UP big too. Scotland falls to sixth place. Northern Ireland is rocketting up now and goes second after a series of big jumps.

MORE IMPORTANTLY NORTHERN IRELAND NOW JOINS WALES AS THE ONLY TWO IN THE HIGHEST RATED WATCH ZONE


North East falls to fifth below NW after going DOWN big to 640 / 1055 FROM 707 / 1132


Yorkshire is third and well UP today.

N Ireland goes UP the most sadly and enough and goes all the way back to second place.

UP today on 612 / 1633 FROM 524 / 1462 AND 446 / 1335 just 2 days ago. RISING VERY FAST HERE.




East Midlands is in the second tier below the top one of Wales & Northerm Ireland

That watch zone in order is now Yorkshire, North West, North East, Scotland & East Midlands which is rising,

Indeed East Midlands is UP again today on 661 / 934 FROM 656 / 922



The other five regions are all now in one zone below - West Mdlands, East and London. With South East & South West rising OUT of the lowest of all watch zones to join those three.

AS YOU CAN SEE AND AS THE DAILY DATA FOR REAL IS SUPPORTING THE SOUTHERN REGIONS ARE ALL OUTPERFORMING THE MORE NORTHERLY ONES BUT THEY ARE STARTING TO GO UP NOW TOO - HENCE THE DAILY RISES IN CASES AND ONGOING INFECTIONS



South West is now BEST in the UK again - but UP FROM 424 / 581 TO 427 / 588

South East next lowest is UP even more on 456 / 575 FROM 426 / 539 .


LONDON is next but UP again on 501 / 666 FROM 476 / 634


West Midlands is UP on 527 / 771 FROM 478 / 704 and East UP on 500 / 673 FROM 482 / 647.



UP TOP:-

WALES UP by biggest recent daily rise on 979 / 1365 FROM 887 / 1252 - easily the highest in the UK and a big enough jump to take it into the highest watch zone with

Northern Ireland - also UP big on 612 / 1633 FROM 524 / 1462

The rest are in a lower watch zone:-



But Yorkshire in third is also well UP on 834 / 1134 FROM 772 / 1059

Scotland still falling in sixth DOWN today too on 667 / 941 FROM 693 / 961

 

[Healdplace]

ZOE APP DATA


TODAY


GREATER MANCHESTER:-

Bury tales over TOP spot by edging UP on 11, 004 FROM 10, 558.

Stockport back into second improving slightly again DOWN on 10, 701 FROM 11, 190 - hopefully a start!



EVERYONE ELSE STILL IN THE LOWER WATCH ZONE


Manchester is third DOWN slightly on 9237 FROM 9460

Rochdale fourth but UP on 9197 FROM 8337

Tameside are fifth - also UP - on 8634 FROM 8334 - probably should be higher given the real data

Wigan up to sixth after yesterdays big numbers UP on 6710 FROM 5611

Trafford is seventh also UP a little on 6549 FROM 6448

Oldham stays eighth also slightly DOWN on 5515 FROM 5371

Bolton edges UP in ninth on 4636 FROM 4496


BUT BEST IN GM AFTER WEEKS OF DAILY FALLS IN THE REAL DATA TOO IS STILL :-


Salford - DOWN on 3082 FROM 3282





REST OF NORTH WEST




St Helens is DOWN slightly on 25, 881 FROM 26, 057 but NOT now THE highest in the NW.


Liverpool is slightly DOWN too and also well above all of GM on 20, 278

Sefton UP on 13. 793 but also still above all of GM



So Merseyside not GM is still the problem in the North West according to Zoe.

Even Warrington is now above all of GM but DOWN slightly on 13, 803


LAKE DISTRICT NORTH DOWN ON 26, 866 FROM 27, 331 IS STILL THE HIGHEST IN THE NORTH WEST JUST AHEAD OF ST HELENS AND LANCASTER AND MORECAMBE DOWN ON 19, 741 FROM 20, 762



BUT THE OTHER AREA OF CONCERN (sorry Andyhinch):-

Cheshire East which is really very surprisingly still above Stockport and UP TODAY to only just over its neighbour to the north.

UP to 13, 059 FROM 12, 203 - over Stockport again.

Very unusual for Cheshire East to be still above all GM boroughs - BUT it is no longer over Chester and Cheshire West which went UP on 18, 413 FROM 18, 124

 

[Healdplace]

SCOTLAND DATA

BETTER NEWS HERE APART FROM THE FIRST NUMBER

50 deaths - was 30 last week Must be one of the highest in months here sadly

3667 cases - was 5529 last week

8.5% positivity - was 9.9% last week

1011 patients - was 1057 yesterday & 1037 last week

79 ventilated icu - was 86 yesterday & 87 last week

Hospital data now looking much more positive - though a lot of deaths can impact these numbers

 

[Healdplace]

NORTHERN IRELAND DATA

DESPITE THE ZOE NUMBERS LOOKING SCARY FOR HERE THE REAL DATA IS AGAIN REALLY GOOD FOR NOW

8 deaths - was 10 last week

1030 cases - was 1239 last week

5.0% positivity - was 4.4% last week

7607 WEEKLY TOTAL CASES - WAS 7698 YESTERDAY & 8662 LAST WEEK

94 CARE HOME OUTBREAKS - WAS 101 YESTERDAY & 108 LAST WEEK - SUB 100 FOR FIRST TIME IN TWO MONTHS

373 Patients - was 383 yesterday & 419 last week

23 ventilated - was 25 yesterday & 34 last week

THESE NUMBERS ARE HAPPILY GOING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION AND HAVE BEEN FOR SOME TIME NOW


44.5% of the last 7 day cases were aged 19 or under & 67.3% were aged under 40

Just 2.4% were aged 80 PLUS and 10.6% were aged 60 or over.

The numbers that show why high cases are largely meaningless now compared to in January when these ratios were VERY different.