Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Healdplace]

ZOE APP DATA

TODAYS DATA

REGIONS:-

THESE ARE ALL UP DUE TO THE 'READJUSTMENT' SO NO MEANINGFUL COMPARISONS UNTIL TOMORROW - SO UP / DOWN TODAY IS OLD DATA V NEW - IE HARD TO MAKE SENSE FROM UNTIL TOMORROW.



North West is still third in the upper watch zone


NORTH WEST UP on 1181 / 1526 FROM 1075 / 1389


UP TOP:-


THERE ARE SEVEN NOW IN THE HIGHEST WATCH ZONE


EAST MIDLANDS - as it was heading towards doing in the old numbers - makes it to the TOP of the tree for the first time ON 1214 / 1611 FROM 1121 / 1486


WALES drops to second on 1182 / 1645 WAS 1107 / 1537.

NORTH WEST still third SEE ABOVE 1181 / 1526 - close to catching Wales in second. And possibly the biggest rise other than West Midlands today if I read this data correctly which we will not know until tomorrow.

WEST MIDLANDS rises into fourth, unsurprisingly given recent real case numbers on 1087 / 1465 FROM 971 / 1314. It was going to overtake Yorkshire on the old data today anyway. But is still a little way behind the North West. Though not insurmountable as it is moving faster - I think.

YORKSHIRE falls to fifth. UP on 1069 / 1443 FROM 984 / 1328


NORTH EAST still sixth UP on 927 / 1463 FROM 887 / 1398


EAST joins the UPPER WATCH ZONE in seventh UP quite a bit onto 933 / 1187 FROM 831 / 1061


EVERYONE UP IS NO SURPRISE WITH THE UPWARD BIG CASES READJUSTMENT


THE REST ARE NOW ALL TOGETHER IN THE SECOND WATCH ZONE.


NOBODY AT ALL NOW IN THE LOWEST ONE




LONDON is now eighth in UK also UP on 853 / 1088 FROM 754 / 966

SOUTH EAST is now the ninth region but UP similarly l on 852 / 1030 FROM 758 / 919

SOUTH WEST in tenth and lowest England region UP on 820 / 1057 FROM 724 / 938.


LEAVING JUST THE TWO NATIONS:-


NORTHERN IRELAND UP on 402 / 1458 FROM 302 / 1377 -


AND IN THE LEAD AS BEST IN THE UK ON ZOE:-


SCOTLAND - UP to 651 / 954 FROM 567 / 838

 

[bluemc1]

Sadly the unvaxinated go round to their grandparents and infect them. Most vaccinated who die catch it this way.
(Source infection investigations by my daughter's hospital - the NHS try and identify where everyone admitted caught it.)

but what I’m saying is only 30% are unvaxed and a chunk of them will have natural immunity so are as unlikely to spread it as someone who’s vaxed so the number of people you’re worried about spreading it is getting lower and lower meaning the hospitals are very unlikely to be overrun

 

[BlueAnorak]

but what I’m saying is only 30% are unvaxed and a chunk of them will have natural immunity so are as unlikely to spread it as someone who’s vaxed so the number of people you’re worried about spreading it is getting lower and lower meaning the hospitals are very unlikely to be overrun

I'll agree with you on the last point but if vaccination had got to 95% of adults the problems we have now would be a lot less.

 

[Rammy Blue]

Bad news about Pfizerc vaccine effectiveness after 6 months. (I missed it earlier in the week).

Pfizer Covid jab ‘90% effective against hospitalisation for at least 6 months’

Study shows protection against severe illness stays high, but scientists say boosters key to stopping spread of infection

www.theguardian.com

Getting as many as possible to catch it in the late summer was clearly the right policy.
3m official cases since mid July probably double that if Zoe is to be believed.

A cynic might think it’s intentional so you need a booster regularly….

 

[Healdplace]

ZOE APP DATA


TODAY

ALL THIS DATA IMPACTED BY THE READJUSTMENT SO GOING UP LARGELY EVERYWHERE IS NO SURPRISE.

THE DEGREE OF THAT RISE IS POSSIBLY THE ONLY HINT WE WILL GET UNTIL TOMORROW'S DATA DIRECTLY COMPARABLE TO THIS ONE IS AVAILABLE AS THIS TODAY IS REALLY NOT SO SIMPLE TO MEASURE V YESTERDAY GIVEN THE UPWARD READJUSTMENT



GREATER MANCHESTER:-


Tameside goes top and certainly cases suggest it should be in top 3 though its dodgy numbers on Zoe long term need recalling. Today UP big - on 24, 868 FROM 20, 325.

Trafford stays second (given the Tameside data doubt and Trafford's cases I thiny it must really be top) - UP on 24, 253 FROM 20, 321

Oldham moves into third UP too just behind on 21, 936 FROM 20, 182

Rochdale now fourth and over 20K too - UP on 21, 153 FROM 19, 886

FOUR BOROUGHS OVER 20 K FOR FRST TIME IN MONTHS - AND NONE OF THEM STOCKPORT!


Stockport stays fifth and UP. On 16, 135 FROM 15, 180. Though a gap opened up above after days of small falls here. And even this readjustment rise is not as large as theirs.


Bolton moves up to sixth - on 15, 280 FROM 13, 796


Wigan is seventh and is DOWN even on the readjustment amazingly - just a tad - on 13. 733 FROM 13, 886

Manchester still in eighth but UP and back over 10K to its highest in a while on 11, 692 FROM 9982

Salford stays in ninth but also cracks into the Upper Watch Zone after all those weeks very low - UP on 10, 103 FROM 7657 - one of the biggest leaps via the readjustment today.



SO WE ARE LEFT WITH JUST A SINGLE BOROUGH IN THE LOWER WATCH ZONE



Bury - but it too is UP on 7375 FROM 6475







REST OF NORTH WEST




St Helens is high again UP on 21, 326 FROM 18, 808

THEY WERE NOT ALONE EITHER:-

Liverpool is UP again in the Upper Watch zone on 14, 115 FROM 11, 887

Sefton - too now going UP on 14, 067 FROM 11, 056 .

Warrington is UP again too SLOWLY on 13, 766 FROM 11, 355.


SO THE UPTICK IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE REGION IS NOW UNIVERSAL IN ALL THE OLD PROBLEM AREAS WHICH ARE STARTING TO GO UP TOO



LAKE DISTRICT NORTH WAS GOING DOWN AND MAY DO AGAIN TOMORROW AFTER THE READJUSTMENT WHICH WAS TINY HERE

ON 24, 071 FROM 23, 888



AS FOR THE OTHER AREA OF CONCERN:-

Cheshire East is STILL going UP and the readjudstment has not helped putting it far above Stockport now AND just under the highest in GM too .

UP to 24, 245 FROM 21, 939 FROM 21, 849, 21, 179, 20, 712, 20, 163 & 19, 511 in past days - highest I have seen it and the 17 th consecutive rise.


Chester and Cheshire West - like other western parts of the NW - has been falling steadily as the east and is UP via the readjustment but far below its neighbour now on 15, 907 FROM 14, 369.

THE MOST THAT CHESHIRE EAST HAS EVER LED ITS NEIGHBOUR TO THE WEST.

OH AND WORTH WATCHING THE FYLDE AND BLACKPOOL AREA NOW THE LIGHTS ARE ON - UP ON 14, 557 FROM 11, 324

 

[grunge]

A cynic might think it’s intentional so you need a booster regularly….

unless you had a monopoly or managed to get all vaccines to go the same route all you do here is lose business to better vaccines.

 

[Healdplace]

ENGLAND REGIONS


EAST UP by 322 - TO 3958 V 3410 - UP 548 IN WEEK

LONDON UP by 187 - TO 3077 V 2439 UP 637 IN WEEK

SOUTH EAST FALLS BY 383 TO 4715 V 4484 UP 231 BEHIND NW BY JUST 28 TODAY

SOUTH WEST UP BY 809 TO 2784 V 2515 UP 269 IN WEEK


ALL SOUTHERN REGIONS UP WEEK TO WEEK NOW



EAST MIDLANDS UP BY 70 - TO 3919 V 3327 UP 592 IN WEEK

WEST MIDLANDS FALLS BY 418 - TO 3563 V 3481 UP 82 IN WEEK






NORTH EAST UP BY 278 - TO 1718 V 1217 - UP 501 IN WEEK - NORTH EAST GOING UP A LOT NOW

YORKSHIRE FALLS BY 236 TO 3729 V 3821 - DOWN 92 IN WEEK


AND


NORTH WEST FALLS BY 584 TO 4743 V 4205 - UP 538 IN WEEK

BETTER DAY




GM AS A PERCENTAGE OF NORTH WEST CASES

TODAY 35.5% FALLS VERY SIGNIFICANTLY FROM 41.2% YESTERDAY

AND WELL DOWN TOO WEEK TO WEEK FROM 39.9% LAST WEEK -


SELF EVIDENTLY A MUCH BETTER DAY IN GREATER MANCHESTER THAN YESTERDAY

 

[Bigga]

but what I’m saying is only 30% are unvaxed and a chunk of them will have natural immunity so are as unlikely to spread it as someone who’s vaxed so the number of people you’re worried about spreading it is getting lower and lower meaning the hospitals are very unlikely to be overrun

I'll agree with you on the last point but if vaccination had got to 95% of adults the problems we have now would be a lot less.

'Herd immunity' is reached anywhere from 70% - 80%.

Some countries have assessed HI at 65%.

Reaching 95% for HI is unheard of and moving the goalposts, wherever you got that data from.

 

[Bigga]

A cynic might think it’s intentional so you need a booster regularly….

unless you had a monopoly or managed to get all vaccines to go the same route all you do here is lose business to better vaccines.

Bingo...

I, also, wonder if anybody's covered the reports of female menstrual cycles, for some, have been affected since taken the vaccine?

 

[Healdplace]

GREATER MANCHESTER SCOREBOARD


TOTAL CASES 1684 - DOWN 511 FROM YESTERDAY - BIGGEST DAILY FALL IN WEEKS

NORTH WEST DOWN 584 TO 4743 - SO WAY OVER PAR SPLIT OF THAT BIG NW FALL IS MOSTLY IN GM WHICH IS OBVIOUSLY GOOD NEWS FOR THE COUNTY


VERSUS LAST WEEK GM WAS THEN 1578 - SO UP 106

NORTH WEST RISES BY 538 WEEK TO WEEK.

AS YOU CAN SEE THE WEEK TO WEEK GM RISE IS WELL UNDER THE 35/40% EXPECTATION AT AROUND 20% - SO THAT IS GOOD NEWS FOR A RISE


GM HAD A VERY GOOD DAY FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A FEW DAYS NUMBERS WENT THE RIGHT WAY




TRAFFORD 300 - DOWN 101 on day & UP 75 Wk to wk - Zoe predicted Trafford rising & sure got that right. Fourth consecutive day at the top but what in normal times would be a huge number is actually pretty good progress from yesterday. Brings a Pop score rise of 'just' 127 - which any other day woud be noteworthy for being scarily high but when down from 169 it is real progress.Odd times! Stockport though had a much better day so after being 100 ahead of Stockport across 4 days for the overall Pop Score lead across the pandemic that has reversed just as fast as it did in Trafford's favour back toward Stockport having over a 100 lead without Stockport showing more than modest steps forward itself. POP SCORE 14, 147

MANCHESTER 238 - DOWN 5 on day & UP 40 wk to wk. Pop Score up 43 . Still edging up here week to week . POP SCORE 16, 262

STOCKPORT 219 - DOWN 126 on day & DOWN 45 wk to wk. A really big fall here - one of the biggest ever - and much better day.And enough to even go below Manchester - as normal really, but a rarity of late. Still entered the 14 K club after 13 unlucky days there. But with a Pop Score of 'just' 74 reclaimed another 53 from Trafford on the best Pop SCore across the Pandemic to now lead by 108 after being that far behind Trafford a few days ago! POP SCORE 14, 039

WIGAN 200 - UP 7 on day & UP 31 wk to wk. Pop score up 60 today. POP SCORE 15, 604

TAMESIDE 172 - DOWN 7 on day & DOWN 32 wk to wk. Pop Score of 76 it is second highest today. POP SCORE 15, 246

ROCHDALE 134 - UP 15 on day & UP 63 wk to wk. Pop Score up 59 . POP SCORE 15, 817

OLDHAM 119 - DOWN 61 on day & Up UP 4 Wk to Wk. Pop Score up 50. Lead over Manchester for highest Pop Score across the pandemic rises to 327 - not looking likely to stop rising either before it becomes the first into the 17 K club which at this rate could be next week! POP SCORE 16, 589

SALFORD 112 - DOWN 51 on day & DOWN 25 wk to wk. Good day here. Pop Score up 43. POP SCORE 16, 221

BURY 96 - DOWN 35 on day & UP 30 wk to wk. Pop score here up 50 . POP SCORE 15, 307

BOLTON 94 - DOWN 57 on day & DOWN 35 wk to wk - Best numbers in GM today. Pop Score up 32. Lowest in GM too. POP SCORE 15, 573