Coronavirus (2021) thread

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ZOE APP NEWS

TODAY'S UPDATE

FOR WHATEVER SENSE IT MAKES GIVEN SWITCHING BACK AND FORTH WITH THEIR TINKERING TO CREATE A NEW HIGHER NUMBER SET YESTERDAY AND NOW ABANDON IT THE FOLLOWING DAY!


SEEMINGLY BACK ON A MUCH LESS MODIFIED VERSION OF THE OLD WAY SO I AM COMPARING THESE WITH TWO DAYS AGO AND IGNORING YESTERDAY'S 'EXPERIMENT' - IF THAT IS WHAT IT WAS - NO EXPLANATION FROM ZOE AS WHY THEY SWITCHED BACK AS YET.

Predicted cases are

DOWN TO 60, 251 FROM 66, 033 TWO DAYS AGO (it was 73, 275 yesterday on the 'updated' method) - a FALL of of 5782 ON 2 DAYS AGO after rises of 259, 1008, 1442, 902, 237,1389, 2670, 2416 in the days before.


It WAS 62, 135 last week - a FALL week to week of 1884 AFTER A RISE OF 7907 two days ago & rises of 10, 064, 9732, 12, 390, 12, 171, 14, 240 in previous few days.

So looking to be falling - or flattening off. Or?

Well your guess is as good as mine until Zoe work out what the heck they are doing.




Ongoing symptomatic cases DOWN too:-

BUT Zoe has changed all of the past data here TOO for second time since 2 days ago - so they are actually now still going UP!

I think!


FROM 823, 155 TWO DAYS AGO on the OLD (as in 2 tinkers ago) data - OR it was over 900K on the tinker mark 1 yesterday 0R today has been redefined as actually then having 'really' been

782, 143 - a rise of 8006 on the previous day.

SO WE WILL HAVE TO USE THAT NUMBER TO COMPARE TODAY AND OTHER DAYS.

Assuming Zoe stick with this calculation for more than 24 hours that is!

ON THIS MARK 3 TINKER IT WAS 738. 512 last week.

SO on the current method that is a weekly RISE of 43, 631


DEFINITELY A MORE HOPEFUL LOOK THAT NUMBERS MAY BE STARTING TO PEAK

BUT HOW MUCH IS REAL AND HOW MUCH ZOE HAVING A MID LIFE CRISIS WE WILL SEE!


There is always a lag to the change in ongoing cases after a rise or fall in daily case numbers as ongoing cases persist and are not just counted on the day of first report
 
ZOE APP DATA

TODAYS DATA


NB ;- HOW MUCH THEIR PAST 48 HOURS OF DATA TINKERING BACK AND FORTH HAS ALTERED ANY OF THIS I DOUBT EVEN ZOE KNOW.

REGIONS:-

LOTS OF FALLS BUT THEY ARE PROBABLY MOSTLY ARTIFICIAL CREATED BY THE TWO TINKERS SO WE WILL HAVE TO AWAIT TOMORROW TO SEE THE TRUE DIRECTION OF THE NUMBERS.

HOPEFULLY THE RELATIVE PLACES IN THE 12 REGIONS AND NATIONS ARE AT LEAST TRULY REFLECTIVE



North West is still third in the upper watch zone


NORTH WEST way DOWN to 960 / 1243 FROM 1181 / 1526 YESTERDAY OR 1075 / 1389 TWO DAYS & TWO TINKERS AGO!

So looks like a big fall on both old and really old (as in Wednesday) data. But with Zowie Zoe mindbending right now who the heck knows???

UP TOP:-


THERE ARE BACK TO SIX BOROUGHS NOW IN THE HIGHEST WATCH ZONE


EAST MIDLANDS - as was close to in the old numbers and became yeserday via the new now junked ones is STILL TOP of the tree ON 979 / 1301 - down on 1214 / 1611 yesterday OR 1121 / 1486 two tinkers ago.


OTHER THAN WALES, EAST MIDLANDS AND THEN NORTH WEST SEEM TO HAVE FALLEN THE MOST VIA TINKER TWO TODAY


WALES still second on 942 / 1324 FROM 1182 / 1645 yesterday and 1107 / 1537 two tinkers ago.

NORTH WEST still third but still close to both the top two ON 960 / 1243 SEE ABOVE

WEST MIDLANDS rises into fourth, unsurprisingly given recent real case numbers on 901 / 1213 FROM 1087 / 1465 yesterday and 971 / 1314 two tinkers ago.

YORKSHIRE falls to fifth. On 896 / 1208 FROM 1069 / 1443 yesterday and FROM 984 / 1328 two tinkers ago


NORTH EAST still sixth. On 800 / 1263 FROM 927 / 1463 yesterday and FROM 887 / 1398 two tinkers ago.




EVERYONE DOWN HERE IS NO SURPRISE WITH THE LATEST READJUSTMENT


WE NOW HAVE TWO LOWER WATCH ZONES.


IN THE HIGHER OF THE TWO ZONES


EAST in seventh ON 764 / 973 FROM 933 / 1187 yesterday and FROM 831 / 1061 two tinkers ago.

SOUTH EAST is now the eighth region ON 715 / 864 FROM 852 / 1030 yesterday and 758 / 919 two tinkers ago.

LONDON is now ninth in UK ON 686 / 879 FROM 853 / 1088 yesterday and 754 / 966 two tinkers ago

SOUTH WEST in tenth and lowest England region ON 669 / 864 FROM 820 / 1057 yesterday and 724 / 938 two tinkers ago.


THE SOUTHERN REGIONS FELL A LITTLE LESS BUT FROM A LOWER BASE SO NOT A LOT OF DIFFERENCE


LEAVING JUST TWO NORTHERN NATIONS IN THE LOWEST WATCH ZONE:-



NORTHERN IRELAND ON 336 / 1217 FROM 402 / 1458 yesterday & FROM 302 / 1377 two tinkers ago - UP as you can see when the rest are down via the readjustments.


AND STILL IN THE LEAD AS BEST IN THE UK ON ZOE:-


SCOTLAND - ON 540 / 791 FROM 651 / 954 yesterday and 567 / 838 two tinkers ago.
 
Healdplace said:
ZOE APP DATA

TODAYS DATA


NB ;- HOW MUCH THEIR PAST 48 HOURS OF DATA TINKERING BACK AND FORTH HAS ALTERED ANY OF THIS I DOUBT EVEN ZOE KNOW.

REGIONS:-

LOTS OF FALLS BUT THEY ARE PROBABLY MOSTLY ARTIFICIAL CREATED BY THE TWO TINKERS SO WE WILL HAVE TO AWAIT TOMORROW TO SEE THE TRUE DIRECTION OF THE NUMBERS.

HOPEFULLY THE RELATIVE PLACES IN THE 12 REGIONS AND NATIONS ARE AT LEAST TRULY REFLECTIVE



North West is still third in the upper watch zone


NORTH WEST way DOWN to 960 / 1243 FROM 1181 / 1526 YESTERDAY OR 1075 / 1389 TWO DAYS & TWO TINKERS AGO!

So looks like a big fall on both old and really old (as in Wednesday) data. But with Zowie Zoe mindbending right now who the heck knows???

UP TOP:-


THERE ARE BACK TO SIX BOROUGHS NOW IN THE HIGHEST WATCH ZONE


EAST MIDLANDS - as was close to in the old numbers and became yeserday via the new now junked ones is STILL TOP of the tree ON 979 / 1301 - down on 1214 / 1611 yesterday OR 1121 / 1486 two tinkers ago.


OTHER THAN WALES, EAST MIDLANDS AND THEN NORTH WEST SEEM TO HAVE FALLEN THE MOST VIA TINKER TWO TODAY


WALES still second on 942 / 1324 FROM 1182 / 1645 yesterday and 1107 / 1537 two tinkers ago.

NORTH WEST still third but still close to both the top two ON 960 / 1243 SEE ABOVE

WEST MIDLANDS rises into fourth, unsurprisingly given recent real case numbers on 901 / 1213 FROM 1087 / 1465 yesterday and 971 / 1314 two tinkers ago.

YORKSHIRE falls to fifth. On 896 / 1208 FROM 1069 / 1443 yesterday and FROM 984 / 1328 two tinkers ago


NORTH EAST still sixth. On 800 / 1263 FROM 927 / 1463 yesterday and FROM 887 / 1398 two tinkers ago.




EVERYONE DOWN HERE IS NO SURPRISE WITH THE LATEST READJUSTMENT


WE NOW HAVE TWO LOWER WATCH ZONES.


IN THE HIGHER OF THE TWO ZONES


EAST in seventh ON 764 / 973 FROM 933 / 1187 yesterday and FROM 831 / 1061 two tinkers ago.

SOUTH EAST is now the eighth region ON 715 / 864 FROM 852 / 1030 yesterday and 758 / 919 two tinkers ago.

LONDON is now ninth in UK ON 686 / 879 FROM 853 / 1088 yesterday and 754 / 966 two tinkers ago

SOUTH WEST in tenth and lowest England region ON 669 / 864 FROM 820 / 1057 yesterday and 724 / 938 two tinkers ago.


THE SOUTHERN REGIONS FELL A LITTLE LESS BUT FROM A LOWER BASE SO NOT A LOT OF DIFFERENCE


LEAVING JUST TWO NORTHERN NATIONS IN THE LOWEST WATCH ZONE:-



NORTHERN IRELAND ON 336 / 1217 FROM 402 / 1458 yesterday & FROM 302 / 1377 two tinkers ago - UP as you can see when the rest are down via the readjustments.


AND STILL IN THE LEAD AS BEST IN THE UK ON ZOE:-


SCOTLAND - ON 540 / 791 FROM 651 / 954 yesterday and 567 / 838 two tinkers ago.
Click to expand...
Healdplace is the data I am reading from the covid world meter saying there are currently 807 seriously ill with covid in the UK an accurate reflection of the data from the sources you rely on?

While I don't place a lot of credence in the active case numbers they state if this is close to the mark then the signs are encouraging.
 
ZOE APP DATA


TODAY

ALL THIS DATA IMPACTED BY THE TWO MAJOR TINKERS IN PAST 48 HOURS SO TOMORROW WILL BE MORE REVEALING THAN ANY CHANGE SINCE YESTERDAY WHICH IS PRETTY MUCH ALL DOWN EVERYWHERE


GREATER MANCHESTER:-


Tameside STAYS top and certainly cases suggest it should be in top 3 though its dodgy numbers on Zoe long term need recalling. DOWN - on 22, 756 FROM 24, 868.

Trafford stays second (given the Tameside data doubt and Trafford's cases I think it must really be top) - DOWN on 21, 076 FROM 24, 253 .

Oldham third DOWN on 18, 179 FROM 21, 936 - big drop here

Rochdale now fourth DOWN on 15, 426 FROM 21, 153 - biggest fall here via the readjustment

Stockport stays fifth DOWN on 13, 146 FROM 16, 135.

Bolton stays in sixth DOWN on 12, 627 FROM 15, 280

Wigan is seventh and DOWN even on 11, 340 FROM 13, 733



SO WE ARE BACK TO THREE BOROUGHS IN THE LOWER WATCH ZONE



Salford is in eighth DOWN and only just out of the upper watch on 9977 FROM 10, 103.

Manchester falls to ninth DOWN on 9115 FROM 11, 692


AND AS BEFORE THE TOP DOG IS STILL

Bury - DOWN on 6520 FROM 7375







REST OF NORTH WEST

THESE TWO ARE PRETTY MUCH ALL DOWN VIA THE TINKERING


St Helens DOWN a lot on 16, 676 FROM 21, 326

Liverpool DOWN on 12, 434 FROM 14, 115

Sefton - too but pretty slowly on 13, 639 FROM 14, 057

Warrington DOWNon 12, 144 FROM 13, 766 .



LAKE DISTRICT NORTH WAS GOING DOWN BEFORE BUT HAS PLUMETTED WITH THE TINKERING


ON 19, 321 FROM 24, 071


SO MUCH SO THAT NEAR NEIGHBOUR NORTH LANCASHIRE (LANCASTER & MORECAMBE) FALLS LESS ONTO A HIGHER NUMBER THAN THE BOROUGH TO ITS NORTH 19, 795 FROM 22, 111



AS FOR THE OTHER AREA OF CONCERN:-

Cheshire East FALLS (yay!) but the readjudstment may be the only reason - we will see tomorrow.

DOWN to 19, 940 FROM 24, 245 & 21, 939 in past days.

This is a promising big drop - but we will see if it is for real niot just Zoe's shifting sums.... Still below Trafford now which is good news.


Chester and Cheshire West - like other western parts of the NW - was falling steadily anyway as the east and DOWN via the readjustment but far below its neighbour now on 13, 793 FROM 15, 907


OH AND WORTH WATCHING THE FYLDE AND BLACKPOOL AREA NOW THE LIGHTS ARE ON - DOWN ON 12, 323 FROM 14, 557
 
mancity1 said:
Healdplace is the data I am reading from the covid world meter saying there are currently 807 seriously ill with covid in the UK an accurate reflection of the data from the sources you rely on?

While I don't place a lot of credence in the active case numbers they state if this is close to the mark then the signs are encouraging.
Click to expand...
Check out the England and UK hospital data posted in here last night. I post them every evening for the England regions and the four nations and post patients and ventilators for each nation in the afternoon as they are updated - I think ventilators is the closest to seriously ill.

NW is going up in these. Most other places falling. There are around that number you cite so that is likely it. Though if it relies on Gov UK it will be 1 or 2 days out of date.

I post changes daily but England had 665 yesterday and around 800 when the other nations were added.

It is hard to be accurate as Gov UK is often late with data from Wales in particular. But they have only small numbers so never far out.
 
Last edited:
mancity1 said:
Healdplace is the data I am reading from the covid world meter saying there are currently 807 seriously ill with covid in the UK an accurate reflection of the data from the sources you rely on?

While I don't place a lot of credence in the active case numbers they state if this is close to the mark then the signs are encouraging.
Click to expand...

That matches whats on the Gov website. 06-10-2021 had 807 on ventilators.

UKHSA data dashboard

Showing public health data across England
coronavirus.data.gov.uk coronavirus.data.gov.uk

click on healthcare and you can get a breakdown of numbers of admissions vs number in hospital vs numbers being venitlated.
 
SCOTLAND DATA

More progress here happily

16 deaths - was 34 last week - BIG drop in deaths here as England is starting to show

2627 cases - was 2693 last week

7.9% positivity - was 7.2% last week

957 patients - down 23 on yesterday - was 983 last week

64 ventilated icu - down 5 on yesterday - was 65 last week
 
As you see it is down to 802 [seriously ill' already today via the Scotland fall.

But other nations may go up and down. England as the biggest changes the most.

Wales data is delayed today due to more IT data issues.
 
NORTHERN IRELAND DATA

SADLY YESTERDAY'S BAD NEWS CONTINUES AND A PROBLEM MAY BE BREWING HERE

2 deaths - was 8 last week - SO THIS BIT IS GOOD NEWS

1276 cases - was 1039 last week - but cases are starting to rise slowky now again

Positivity 6.1% - was 5.8% last week - up too

WEEKLY CASES 8295 - UP FROM 8018 YESTERDAY & 7622 - THIS IS RISING STEADILY AGAIN NOW

AND IT HAS CREATED THE MOST WORRYING PROBLEM - CARE HOME NUMBERS RISING AGAIN AFTER WEEKS OF BIG FALLS

69 OUTBREAKS TODAY - UP 3 ON YESTERDAY & SAME AS LAST WEEK - FIRST NO WEEK TO WEEK FALL IN TWO OR THREE MONTHS - YOUNG PATIENTS INCREASING CASES IS LESS OF A CONCERN THAN RISING OUTBREAKS HERE AGAIN

360 patients - up 1 on yesterday - was 342 yesterday

28 ventilated - up 2 on yesterday & was 26 last week

THESE NUMBERS ARE RISING AGAIN NOW TOO.AND IF NOT STEMMED WILL RESULT IN RISING DEATHS
 
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