Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Healdplace]

GM boroughs weekly past 7 day case totals:

Bury 634, Rochdale 652, Bolton 743, Oldham 811, Salford 869 , Tameside 1060, Wigan 1111, Manchester 1408, Stockport 1599, Trafford 1788



A lot up but some big falls with Stockport pulling further clear of Trafford and closer to Manchester.

At the right end of the table Bury had a much better day than Rochdale and regains top spot though both up gone from the 400s to the 600s in a few days now. Much closer to the pack above now.

At today's rate anyone staying below 1000 is not a given.

At the wrong end of the table Stockport had a good day falling and Trafford was up big and is now 179 in the lead.

Manchester now rising steadily and Stockport 's fall puts it now just 191 ahead of Manchester.

 

[BlueAnorak]

'Herd immunity' is reached anywhere from 70% - 80%.

Some countries have assessed HI at 65%.

Reaching 95% for HI is unheard of and moving the goalposts, wherever you got that data from.

The vaccines work really well against the original virus. Which had an ave R0 of 1.9, (HI = 47%) Alpha R0 was 2.9 (HI 65%) and Delta is 5 (HI=85%).
The vaccines drop in effectiveness against Alpha and even further against Delta and also drop in effectiveness over time (Pfizer efficacy against illness has halved in 6 months) news therefore the antibody levels are pretty meaningless as they detect antibodies against any covid virus.
Current effective R number is around 1 with no restrictions so I'd say we're closeish to HI but I don't think we'll ever get there due to antibody effectiveness decreasing.

 

[Healdplace]

GM WEEKLY POP SCORES

Remember low scores good - going down good - high scores bad - going up bad


BOROUGH // POP SCORE TODAY // POP SCORE LAST WEEK // UP OR DOWN BY LAST 7 DAYS

Also WAS 4 weeks ago (up/down in past month)


MANCHESTER 253 // 214 //UP 39 WAS 317 (down 64)

BOLTON 256 // 248 // UP 8 WAS 291 (down 35)

ROCHDALE 291 // 213 // UP 78 WAS 335 (down 44)

SALFORD 331 // 307 // UP 24 WAS 370 (down 39)

BURY 332 // 241 // UP 91 WAS 315 (UP 17)

WIGAN 336 // 340 // DOWN 4 WAS 368 (down 32)

OLDHAM 341 // 317 // UP 24 WAS 349 (down 8)

TAMESIDE 467 // 487 // DOWN 20 WAS 473 (down 6)

STOCKPORT 543 // 526 // UP 17 WAS 391 (UP 152)

TRAFFORD 753 // 486 // UP 267 WAS 364 (UP 389)






Trafford for the fourth day running had far worse numbers than Stockport and have forged into an astounding lead and its highest ever Pop Score and the first GM borough into the 700s in a year. It is now 210 ahead of Stockport. And its weekly and monthly rises are at astounding levels I have never seen - cannot ever recall a score here in the 300s showing how rapidly these numbers have gone out of control.

Though it was down big today so.....if it lasts....we will see.

Stockport for 2 weeks way ahead is now in a blink over 200 behind in second. But we have had false dawns here befre too - so we will see....

Tameside is now clearly falling and itself now 76 back of Stockport.

Salford had a good day as all the rest were rising around it so it rode up now in fourth best from fourth worst.

The top to bottom spread is now an astonishing 500 - exactly - from Manchester to Trafford!

Keeps growing daily at the moment. And will do as long as Trafford keep posting numbers that look crazily high - UP 389 from last month is a record in GM across the pandemic I think

We also now have nobody nearer to going under 200 than going over 300 which is not good to see.

 

[NJ Blue]

It appears that the UK carried out some planning for a COVID type pandemic back in 2016, and it was called Exercise Alice. It was one of a few exercises carried out for different health outbreaks. It raised questions on UK preparedness and the requirements for a pandemic of this type such as PPE, Contact Tracing, restriction of international travel etc etc. Exercise Alice was based on MERS, but the similarities of actions required for COVID-19 are remarkably similar. It has been released under a FOI request by Cygnus Reports and it is also being reported in The Guardian. The government have been trying to keep it quiet for some reason….

 

[BlueHammer85]

New Delta strain discovered in Australia​

Coronavirus restrictions are due to be eased in Sydney next week after more than 100 days in lockdown.
But figures show cases in New South Wales rose on Friday to 646, with most in Sydney, up from 587 the day before.

Kerry Chant, the state's chief health officer, said genomic sequencing has uncovered a new Delta strain in eight new cases, with more tests to be carried out to trace the source.

 

[Healdplace]

Wales announce that their Weekly Pop Score has fallen below 500 for the first time since mid September.

To compare with GM EVERY borough is below there - all bar Tameside below 400 - apart from Stockport on 543 and Trafford on 753.

 

[Trevor Morley's Tache]

I'm currently in isolation post positive PCR test, double jabbed and asymptomatic. I'm due to fly to the USA in just over a week, but the Gov't advice on travel post positive test is conflicting between the NHS advice and the FCDO advice on travel.

You'd think after all this time they might be able to sort their shit out...

 

[Healdplace]

ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS

Still falling week to week but North West deaths still higher share than they were as for past week when ventilator numbers in the NW hospitals have been RISING as other regions fall.

70 with 10 North West - was 80 with 6 North West last week & 101 with 17 two weeks ago.

 

[Healdplace]

ENGLAND 70 HOSPITAL DEATHS IN DETAIL

By Region:- East 8, London 7, Midlands 26, NE & Yorkshire 10, North West 10, South East 5, South West 4

MIDLANDS STILL EASILY IN THE MOST TROUBLE AND HAS HAD THE HIGHEST CASES ALL WEEK TOO

Most deaths in one trust 4 each in Coventry & North Midlands

NW Trusts:- 2 each in Blackpool, St Helens, Tameside & Wirral AND 1 each in Pennine Acute (Oldham/Rochdale) and Salford


By age:- 0 - 19 (1) 40 - 59 (6), 60 - 79 (31) 80 PLUS (32)

Another tragic teenage or below that age victim - there are happily very small numbers but not zero - and several die every week because they are currently 45 - 50% of all the cases we are getting now and a tiny fraction of a lot is still some.

 

[Healdplace]

WEll that Zoe switchover lasted all of 24 hours!

They have seemingly scrapped it and gone back to the old way! BUt have also modified that.

So todays numbers are somewhere between the two extremes of old way (as in 48 hours ago) and today via whatever the heck they were posting yesterday as the first version of their tinkering.

I thought these guys knew what they were doing but am beginning to wonder!