Coronavirus (2021) thread

Status
Not open for further replies.
Thanks for the link to that article. It is certainly interesting and would explain perhaps why the bad areas of GM are now the best and the best areas of Summer and Autumn now the worst.

If it gets harder to infect the higher the percentage who recently had it maybe you would expect this kind of topping up of the lower infected areas and the easing off of the higher ones.

Once past a certain threshold on the way to 'herd immunity'.
 
Healdplace said:
Thanks for the link to that article. It is certainly interesting and would explain perhaps why the bad areas of GM are now the best and the best areas of Summer and Autumn now the worst.

If it gets harder to infect the higher the percentage who recently had it maybe you would expect this kind of topping up of the lower infected areas and the easing off of the higher ones.

Once past a certain threshold on the way to 'herd immunity'.
Click to expand...
Boris’ plan all along....
 
Of course herd immunity is the only way out of a pandemic.

It is what vaccines achieve and it seems it was the plan back in March but the intolerable death rate it would involve hit home. But the new strain with high infectivity was a shock game changer at the same time as the vaccines arrive. The only way you can be sure these work on the most vulnerable and bring the death rate down is to get them out fast as we are. And I guess it may have crossed a few minds that if you let the rest catch it if few of them are going to die and at the same time achieve herd immunity from both directions at once it is an option.

Crazy and scary as a plan which I doubt most scientists would ever approve but potentially one a desperate government would consider as a last resort perhaps.

It is a gigantic gamble though surely. You cannot deliberately overwhelm the NHS. As that would cost far too many lives beyond Covid.

Perhaps this is just a consequence of events not an actual plan. Without the super strain arriving we would not be in such a hurry and likely could never have reached high enough levels of infection either.

It certainly would fit the rather hard to comprehend way we have delayed action when that was the opposite of what you would do if you were trying to keep numbers low as possible.
 
Last edited:
Healdplace said:
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DATA:

A BAD MILESTONE DAY TODAY




Patients 30, 758 - up 1296 in past 24 hours - It was 18, 974 at the peak of the first wave. We are approaching DOUBLE that at the worst time of year for the NHS. Hence the concern.

Ventilator beds - up 103 to 2963 in past 24 hours.

We have today exceded the 2881 who were on ventilators in England in the first wave. Which given the reduced use of these with better treatment is perhaps even more disturbing.

The media will likely tell you this tomorrow night as they seem to be 24 hours behind with the data as they use the Gov UK data that only goes up to yesterday even as of now.
Click to expand...
Was that peak of people with covid confirmed as testing wasn’t done like now ?
 
Ban-jani said:
In my total ignorance surely this should mean the R rate and hospitalisations and deaths should start to come down, unless people can and are catching it again soon after and immunity is short lived?
Click to expand...

It means the R number *has already* come down by 20% over what it would be otherwise.

But if it's greater than one, the epidemic will still grow, exponentially.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Unread Posts

Don't have an account? Register now and see fewer ads!

SIGN UP
Back
Top
✖
  AdBlock Detected
Bluemoon relies on advertising to pay our hosting fees. Please support the site by disabling your ad blocking software to help keep the forum sustainable. Thanks.