Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Marvin]

London hospitalisations are rising steeply. This is the picture for London but be careful interpreting the case numbers because they are by specimen date and hence the latest specimen numbers will rise as they are processed.

What I could do with this data is move the hospitalisation data back by 14 days but then that might get confusing. The explosive exponential growth that occurs on the 12th December is just hitting London's hospitals now.

This is why it is difficult to predict what will happen. We know the illness is much milder because of vaccination/infection and because of intrinsic changes, and yet hospitalisation numbers are rising sharply simply because it is so contagious.

 

[blueparrot]

Not a cat in hells chance

No, because that's only half the equation needed to make a decision on. As much as the angry brigade would like them to take a stab in the dark.

 

[Gabriel]

What restrictions in England?

Are people in England not required to show a COVID pass to enter nightclubs and other venues, or has that not been implemented yet?

 

[BerkshireBlue]

That’s not three though, those are just examples of exactly what I said in terms of the media reporting it without understanding it and including a worst case scenario and then saying “sage advisors say”. Well, yea they do because the modelling will always include that. They also include everything else which they also say is more likely to happen, when they can say it with some confidence.

Their “highly likely” figure was a lot less than 3000 a day in that exact same report and also included the caveat that it depended how much take up there was to the booster rollout and to behavioural changes, which are already evident with the changes in hospitality and numbers going to pubs and restaurants, as well as the severity still not being fully known. Just got to hope the figures from SA are a full indicator for us too.

It’s predominantly bullshit media rhetoric thats based on the hope people either don’t read the underlying documentation or understand it so the lines can be blurred between the political agenda and the scientific one. It’s literally all there though if people really want to find out about it rather than the media interpretation of it. The differences will open a lot more minds into other agendas at play, I imagine.

That’s pretty well covered (or at least hinted at) in the thread I posted before though and why things like the spectator graph is meaningless and the actual models from previous waves don’t correlate at all with the rhetoric.

In the acceptable realms though, there’s also that they’ll want some of it to get out there as it reduces the likelihood of it happening straight away.

There's loads of interviews, radio, TV slots with professors from sage saying more restrictions are needed. Bury your head in the sand if you want I won't be

 

[Fred_Quimby]

It is generally thought that nearly all hospital admissions are people who have not been vaccinated. We are taking measures/restrictions to save the NHS from being overwhelmed. So, in other words, people who have done the right thing and been vaccinated are being restricted in what they do to keep these t@s out of hospital? We should be able to get on with our normal lives and restrict those t@s.

 

[BlueAnorak]

It really wouldn’t, it’s just that the vast majority of the public don’t read or know all the models or realise the worst case is never ever something they suggest is likely to happen.

I imagine the modellers are as pissed off as everyone else is.

Each to there own, but 20 years of my career developing mathematical models for the ONS and the insurance industry tells me they are absolute rubbish.
With 4 waves of evidence (Original, Spanish, Alpha & Delta at hand) they should have refined their models sufficiently such that previous waves hit the median outcome of the models.

 

[Rammy Blue]

London hospitalisations are rising steeply. This is the picture but be careful interpreting the case numbers because they are by specimen date and hence the latest specimen numbers will rise as they are processed.

What I could do with this data is move the hospitalisation data back by 14 days but then that might get confusing. The explosive exponential growth that occurs on the 12th December is just hitting London's hospitals now.

This is why it is difficult to predict what will happen. We know the illness is much milder because of vaccination/infection and because of intrinsic changes, and yet hospitalisation numbers are rising sharply simply because it is so contagious.



View attachment 32447

Problem of course is “hospitalisation due to being unvaccinated”, that’s why people are loathe to feel we have more restrictions on the way if the 80% figure is correct.

 

[feedmpenzaandhewillscore]

It is generally thought that nearly all hospital admissions are people who have not been vaccinated. We are taking measures/restrictions to save the NHS from being overwhelmed. So, in other words, people who have done the right thing and been vaccinated are being restricted in what they do to keep these t@s out of hospital? We should be able to get on with our normal lives and restrict those t@s.

This is where vaccine passports should come into play, if you can’t be arsed getting jabbed you aren’t allowed out. Why should these people prolong this shit and also put a lot of peoples businesses and jobs in jeopardy? Plus the most important thing of occupying the health service with covid when they should be helping people who are having their treatments pushed back.

 

[Tim of the Oak]

Are people in England not required to show a COVID pass to enter nightclubs and other venues, or has that not been implemented yet?

I am not sure Gabriel. There are no restrictions at pubs unless I guess the owners decided to impose restrictions at a local level.

Getting into football games is still easy, at least for now.

 

[Scottyboi]

This trial sounds like a right laugh.

Man who 'assaulted Chris Whitty' speaks to court from bed in a robe

Jonathan Chew, 24, who denies common assault and obstructing police, demanded the chief medical officer be present at the hearing today after his own lawyer withdrew from the case.

www.dailymail.co.uk