Coronavirus (2021) thread

[hammocity]

As long as people catch COVID and have to self isolate the health service will be under threat. Doctors and nurses are unfortunately not immune. Omicron may be milder but people will still end up in hospital in large numbers at the same time as resources are stretched. Neither you or I know wether England has got this right or wether the more cautious approach in Scotland and Wales is more appropriate. Time will tell.

I know the demographics are different in SA but they’ve not been overwhelmed, I’m confident from what I’ve read and heard we will cope.

 

[Gabriel]

I’m very positive, just mocking the Welsh and Scot’s Leaders as I really can’t stand the pair of them, they’ve jumped the gun and totally ignored what SA Scientists were telling us. In Wales it’s still ok to go indoors to pubs and restaurants (with restrictions) but attending outside sports events is not allowed, it’s pathetic.

Rather guessed that. They’re the elected leaders in their countries and done what they believe is the best for their peoples. I don’t think you’d like Mark Rutte, Mette Frederiksen, or Alexander De Croo either, all of whom have implemented measures far stricter than anything seen anywhere in the UK. I’ve forgotten what the inside of a bar looks like! :-)

 

[Invisible Man's Bandage]

I don't know whos right or whos wrong but the Nigerians are saying they got our cast offs.

"We had developed countries that procured these vaccines and hoarded them," he said. "At the point they were about to expire, they offered them for donation."

Nigeria Destroys 1 Million Nearly Expired COVID Vaccine Doses

Developed countries hoarded them and as they were about to expire, they offered them for donation, a Nigerian health official said

www.voanews.com

I've seen the opposite. It's not a great look disposing of vaccines so it may well be that they are using that as an excuse. It is a fact that the Serum Institute is reducing production due to lack of demand and they are the leading manufacturer for countries other than the West.

In countries where life expectancy is relatively low and which have extremely limited resources to deliver vaccines outside of major conurbations then its unrealistic to think that they can do what wealthy Western countries can do.

Is that fair? No it isn't but how can that be changed anytime soon?

 

[hammocity]

Rather guessed that. They’re the elected leaders in their countries and done what they believe is the best for their peoples. I don’t think you’d like Mark Rutte, Mette Frederiksen, or Alexander De Croo either, all of whom have implemented measures far stricter than anything seen anywhere in the UK. I’ve forgotten what the inside of a bar looks like! :-)

Didn’t realise you lived in the Netherlands, what’s the general feeling towards how the Government have handled it there?

 

[SWP's back]

Israeli drug prevents 100% of COVID patients from deteriorating in trial

All 18 hospitalized individuals administered the treatment developed by Israeli biotech company Amorphical in a phase II trial recovered and were discharged in a few days.

Medical personnel work at the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) for COVID-19 patients at the Emile Muller GHRMSA hospital in Mulhouse, France, December 16, 2021 (photo credit: REUTERS/YVES HERMAN/FILE PHOTO)
All 18 COVID-19 patients hospitalized with moderate or severe symptoms who were administered the drug Amor-18 developed by Israeli biotech company Amorphical in a phase II clinical trial recovered and were discharged in a few days, the company announced Wednesday. Of the 19 individuals who were given a placebo, six had to be transferred to intensive care, and two died.
The trial was conducted at the Ziv Medical Center in Safed and led by the directors of the coronavirus department, Dr. Kamal Abu Jabal and Dr. Nashat Abu Saleh. As part of compassionate care, two other patients in a very serious condition were given the drug and they both recovered and were discharged.

Top Articles By JPost

Hospital stay risk for Omicron is 40%-45% lower than Delta - UK study

“Since the patients treated with the drug recovered within a few days and were released to their home, this was 100% successful,” Abu Saleh said.

Amor-18, which uses Amorphous Calcium Carbonate (ACC) as the main ingredient, was administered orally or by inhalation. As explained by the company, ACC has the ability to modulate acidic pH changes around each cell. These changes affect the capability of the coronavirus to penetrate the cells and replicate. This allows the drug to prevent the virus from spreading and therefore the patients from deteriorating.

“We are excited about the results of the clinical trial, which bring real hope to corona patients in Israel and around the world, and are especially encouraging these days with the start of the fifth wave and the Omicron variant,” said Amorphical CEO Yossi Ben.
Colorized scanning electron micrograph of an apoptotic cell (purple) infected with SARS-COV-2 virus particles (yellow), also known as novel coronavirus, isolated from a patient sample. (credit: NIH/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS)Colorized scanning electron micrograph of an apoptotic cell (purple) infected with SARS-COV-2 virus particles (yellow), also known as novel coronavirus, isolated from a patient sample. (credit: NIH/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS)
“The drug we have developed is anti-inflammatory, safe and effective and it is easy to use,” he also said, adding that Amor-18 will work against the entire SARS virus family, including all COVID variants.

A larger trial is already being conducted at the Ziv, Shamir, Kaplan and Maayan Hayeshua medical centers in Israel. In the near future, the drug is also going to be tested in other countries. Seven hospitals in Brazil have already announced they will participate, and other centers in Europe and the United States are expected to join soon.

Fuck man. Imagine if it was your parent given the placebo and they were one of the two that died. I know how trials work and why placebos are important, but fuck man, that’s some cold hard shit.

 

[BlueAnorak]

A great article in the Telegraph this morning for those that can access it

Prof Lockdown's 'apocalyptic' omicron claims undermine faith in vaccines and have fuelled unnecessary shutdowns

Professor Neil Ferguson's team forecast thousands of deaths a day from the latest variant but new evidence suggests it may be far milder

www.telegraph.co.uk

Certain posters on here may feel a little bit vindicated

Not just statisticians who think Fergusson talks out of backside then. Epidemiologists too. Who'd have thought that was possible...

 

[Tim of the Oak]

Going to be an interesting few months/year in the UK. The NHS has been under the cosh for over a decade, as indeed has education, where many scientific advisors serve. These bodies/people, however, have now been elevated and find themselves wielding considerably more clout than they could have imagined. Politicians of all hues will want to wrestle that clout and attention back. The bigger question will be whether society wants to fund/overhaul these sectors properly, or whether in its rush to forget the last two years it ignores them again.

Covid 19 probably doesn’t change what needed to be the direction of travel all that much. Science led care through developments in genetics; more capacity / skills to explain complex test results in simple terms and a sustainable social care workforce were already the key priorities and challenges. Covid solutions and developments in medicine might speed up some changes

The big reality checks are probably around Covid showing up that we have too few hospital beds, insufficient workforce with the appropriate skills and inadequate collaboration between healthcare providers eg to staff Nightingales - to cope with simple or bigger pandemics in the future.

 

[Gabriel]

Didn’t realise you lived in the Netherlands, what’s the general feeling towards how the Government have handled it there?

The Dutch had a General Election in March but an agreement on a coalition government was only reached last week, and one of its first measures was to put the country in a strict lockdown. It did so largely on the basis of the U.K. scientists’ predictions, and there has been no word of rowing back yet. In general, the country was too slow to get vaccines out first time round but caught up quickly, too quick to lift all restrictions in the summer, too slow to roll out boosters in the autumn, and too quick to implement restrictions now.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

I'm not sure the Ferguson paper from yesterday has been understood.

The intrinsic severity of the infection from omicron is estimated down only 30% compared to delta (0.72 hazard ratio for overnight hospital admission).

This is obviously better than no reduction, but not transformative. Indeed, it's far less significant than the transmission advantage. It's also near identical to estimates from SA, so consistent.

Most of the observed reduction in severity is rather down to the fact that there are far more reinfections and infections of vaccinated people.

Interestingly, booster jabs seem to give no better protection against hospitalisation once infected than double jabbing - but they do give substantial protection against infection, so overall massively reduce your risk.

Overall, I think this is consistent with the emerging picture. Omicron is probably a little less severe intrinsically, but much more transmissible. It readily escapes immunity, however vaccination and/or prior infection offer good protection vs hospitalisation. This means the apparent severity is much lower, because most infected people are well protected vs severe disease.

There's still a lot of uncertainty on the numbers in the paper as there have been few hospitalisation to date. There's far more uncertainty still on the progress of the wave, which depends on behaviour. It's starting to look as though there's been a marked reduction in contacts, which helps enormously. Reported numbers will now also be all over the place through the holiday period.

As an aside, it's amusing to find the people who normally find Ferguson's work unspeakable lauding this paper!

https://t.co/chqPEhph3p

I've not read the Scottish one. Anyone who has done care to comment?

[Edit: meant to add that it's quite a complex analysis, so I may well have got some of this wrong. Happy to be corrected if so]

 

[BlueAnorak]

A great article in the Telegraph this morning for those that can access it

Prof Lockdown's 'apocalyptic' omicron claims undermine faith in vaccines and have fuelled unnecessary shutdowns

Professor Neil Ferguson's team forecast thousands of deaths a day from the latest variant but new evidence suggests it may be far milder

www.telegraph.co.uk

Certain posters on here may feel a little bit vindicated

Breaking News: imperial got it wrong again and jumped the gun last Friday.

What really annoys is that by continually crying wolf then one day epidemiologist modellers won't be listened too and the outcome will be really bad. It does my chuffing head in.

Come up with a theory.
Find evidence to back it up.
If you can't, then change the theory and/or search for another cause.

The rules of science apply to Epidemiology as well.