Coronavirus (2021) thread

[ell]

Well we didn’t and I had two doses but large parts of the world did. AZ is the one for poorer countries as it doesn’t need special storage conditions and it is by far the cheapest but probably most countries that need it won’t want it.

A real shame.

Yep, without a doubt the AZ should have been the "workhorse" vaccine for the world but like always... politics.

 

[Giovinco]

Glad you’re ok. When did your symptoms start?

Sunday just got tested straight away.

 

[BlueHammer85]

Alternatively, listen to a different radio station and still enjoy Christmas. ;-)

other stations are playing xmas songs, i'd rather hear about how humanity is going to die from a virus.

 

[inbetween]

I'm not sure the Ferguson paper from yesterday has been understood.

The intrinsic severity of the infection from omicron is estimated down only 30% compared to delta (0.72 hazard ratio for overnight hospital admission).

This is obviously better than no reduction, but not transformative. Indeed, it's far less significant than the transmission advantage. It's also near identical to estimates from SA, so consistent.

Most of the observed reduction in severity is rather down to the fact that there are far more reinfections and infections of vaccinated people.

Interestingly, booster jabs seem to give no better protection against hospitalisation once infected than double jabbing - but they do give substantial protection against infection, so overall massively reduce your risk.

Overall, I think this is consistent with the emerging picture. Omicron is probably a little less severe intrinsically, but much more transmissible. It readily escapes immunity, however vaccination and/or prior infection offer good protection vs hospitalisation. This means the apparent severity is much lower, because most infected people are well protected vs severe disease.

There's still a lot of uncertainty on the numbers in the paper as there have been few hospitalisation to date. There's far more uncertainty still on the progress of the wave, which depends on behaviour. It's starting to look as though there's been a marked reduction in contacts, which helps enormously. Reported numbers will now also be all over the place through the holiday period.

As an aside, it's amusing to find the people who normally find Ferguson's work unspeakable lauding this paper!

https://t.co/chqPEhph3p

I've not read the Scottish one. Anyone who has done care to comment?

[Edit: meant to add that it's quite a complex analysis, so I may well have got some of this wrong. Happy to be corrected if so]

A really incredible thing in the report is the performance of x2 AZ jabs with x1 mRNA booster, an 80% decrease in risk compared to unvaccinated Delta. For x3 mRNA it's a 65% decrease however for delta it's the other way round although the difference between the two is smaller. This will be important as Omicron gains prominence in different countries depending on their vaccine mix.

It's ridiculous really that we have a vaccine that's very effective and is 10x cheaper but it gets such bad press. It amazes me even more that the AZ jab is not even approved in places like the US. Big pharma (AZ excluded) speaks very loudly it seems!

 

[Tonster]

Meanwhile, probably more important than the relatively modest reduction in severity reported, the exponential growth seems to be, at last, tailing off.

This makes much more difference than the severity to peak hospitalisation.

Very hard to know to what extent it's reporting related, but more and more convincing that the restrictions, whether voluntary, compulsory or just closure related are making a significant impact.

Not wanting to cause an argument but how is a 56% reduction only ‘relatively modest’? I’d have thought that was pretty good in the light of the increased transmission?


First the good news. Analysis from the EAVE study based at the University of Edinburgh, which covers the medical histories of 99% of the population of Scotland, finds that overall, the risk of hospitalisation due to Omicron may be a whopping 56% lower compared to Delta.

COVID-19: Data suggesting Omicron causes milder illness than Delta is good news but two big questions remain

Two studies showing the risk of hospitalisation from Omicron is lower than from Delta is a good sign. But it is still early in the spread of the variant, and factors like increased transmissibility could still cause issues.

news.sky.com

 

[M18CTID]

Sunday just got tested straight away.

Cheers. Going off the new rules, you can come out of isolation on Boxing Day as long as you test negative on a Lateral Flow on days 6 and 7 (Xmas Day and Boxing Day)

 

[Healdplace]

Whilst I disagree with the plan for New South Wales to want to charge the unvaccinated if they need hospital care - and the NHS will never do it here obviously - I think it might actually kick a few anti vaxxers into the real world even if never carried out. Possibly the intention.

Having opinions on these things tend to become less fixed once they have direct consequences on your life. Getting covid is one harsh way. Fearing they may lose their job, be unable to go clubbing or getting charged most of your income to have medical care is in many ways a better one as it focuses the conviction into not a life or death thing but one that impacts the quality of your day to day life. But leaves it still as a personal choice.

Few fights for a minority belief get past that point unless they have widespread public empathy which decliing the vaccine because of 'reasons' unless clearly founded (such as higher risk to that person from having it on medical grounds which nobody would ever support) clearly does not.

 

[BlueAnorak]

No, that isn’t the case. Can’t link it as the app is playing up but it is an Oxford University study and they have direct quotes from Professor Sir John Bell, who led it. It’s just waiting to be peer reviewed.

And there is the difference.
One organisation, Oxford, produces a paper and publishes it for peer review. All comments heavily caveated in light of pending review.
Another, Imperial, announces a survey last Friday by Twitter "Breaking news". No caveating for peer review etc.
One is good science. One is scaremongering.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

A really incredible thing in the report is the performance of the AZ jab with an mRNA vaccine, an 80% decrease in risk compared to unvaccinated. For x3 mRNA it's a 65% decrease however for delta it's the other way round although the difference between the two is closer. This will be important as Omicron gains prominence in different countries.

It's ridiculous really that we have a vaccine that's very effective and is 10x cheaper but it gets such bad press. It amazes me even more that the AZ jab is not even approved in places like the US. Big pharma (AZ excluded) speaks very loudly it seems!

Yeah, I spotted that too.

Although I suspect the confidence intervals overlap (the numbers of hospitalizations is just 8 for the AZ cohort) so probably there's no measurable difference vs severe disease.

I also thought the lack of difference of the booster vs hospitalisation was interesting, and maybe very good news; implication is that a double jab gives good long term protection vs severe disease?

 

[hammocity]

Fuck man. Imagine if it was your parent given the placebo and they were one of the two that died. I know how trials work and why placebos are important, but fuck man, that’s some cold hard shit.

I did at medical trial at the Science Park near Manchester Royal, it was for a drug to reduce cholesterol. I stuck a needle in my stomach twice a week for two years, got a letter about a year after the trial saying I was on a placebo, thought I was as my 6 monthly blood tests at the Docs had no change in my levels, was paid a very low amount.