Coronavirus (2021) thread

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I really do not understand why the media are so sloppy and late and almost care less about those hospital figures.

That consistent fall over 2 weeks in England and Scotland is major news but they only just figured out it was below the first wave (as it has been for nearly a week now) and still report it negatively as if being close to the first wave numbers is the story.

No it isn't.

We were told in a press conference a couple of weeks ago that a winter wave would fall more slowly than a Spring one as in last April's peak. Which makes sense.

And fairly obviously that is not what we are seeing. Quite possibly this is even faster.

That can only be good news. As it infers something has changed to alter that reasonable expectation - especially as this lockdown is nowhere near as well observed as the one last Spring.
 
Happy to see Boris is using today's leaders summit to press other nations to doing what UK is stating it will - handing over surplus vaccine to third world nations that will struggle to afford it.

Hopefully he can shame one or two others into doing the right thing.

Doing anything other is stupid unless you want to blockade your borders and live like a recluse for the next decade.

Or be selfish and just live in a bubble world of rich democracies which is about the best way imaginable I can think to result in following Covid with World War Three.
 
Healdplace said:
Yes some on here are indeed. Or politically opposed I guess.

I really do not like the way people personalise these attacks on those who report Nicola Sturgeon's data.

As in me mostly so I take this attack personally.

I have repeatedly said I do so not because of politics or nationalism etc. As I have zero involvement in Scottish nationalism and my political views are actually very fluid. I have voted for three different parties in the last three elections as I base my decision on policies not prejudice.

Yes - I suspect it is relevant the fact that she is a woman in a job and most of you are blokes so might not see why that would tip the scales a bit for me in giving leeway. I have been in meetings like Jackie Weaver too often to know how that tips the balance towards the men there when they never even notice it happening.

But if so any tilting of my opinion in here is subconscious not a real reason for me to be biased.

As I have repeatedly said in here the reason I report her is that she gives data in her daily presentations and that should hardly surprise anyone as to why I tune in.

As for the data. I report what she says good or bad and don't judge as this is not a politics thread.

But I also do not hide anomalies and recall posting (though nobody in here picked up on it) when she described numbers that added up to over 100% of people vaccinated in certain groups that she referenced to it being because the population data was out of date.

Seems odd that any government plans the most important vaccination programme in British history off the back of data they know to be incomplete.

So I will continue to report the data she posts and if some in here want to make silly remarks about my doing so and inferring it has any political basis that's up to them. But it will say more about their biases. Not mine.
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It’s not the first time you’ve taken something personally that wasn’t directed at you, I personally didn’t have a fucking clue which posters were lauding Sturgeon and her bullshit, was just a generic comment as I know there were a load of posts about the “offered” terminology being used by Boris.

I really appreciate all the work you do in this thread, I’ve mentioned it often enough, but I suggest you grow a thicker skin.

edit...and I’ve only just caught up on the rest of the pages in the thread and seen you had a second dig about her being a woman, which I didn’t bother replying to in my initial reply, however implying anything about my views of her as being misogynistic is frankly pathetic and unnecessary.
 
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Wonder if our in the know poster ref the AZ vaccine poster knows anything about the study that has been carried out on any change to transmission on those vaccinated with it and the Pfizer vaccine.

The Telegraph claim to have seen the data compiled from NHS staff who were vaccinated as it has been previewed to the PM but will not be published for a few days.

They claim it shows both vaccines significantly cut infectivity of those who have had it even after just one dose.

Are we to assume this is not being made up by the paper?
 
Rammy Blue said:
It’s not the first time you’ve taken something personally that wasn’t directed at you, I personally didn’t have a fucking clue which posters were lauding Sturgeon and her bullshit, was just a generic comment as I know there were a load of posts about the “offered” terminology being used by Boris.

I really appreciate all the work you do in this thread, I’ve mentioned it often enough, but I suggest you grow a thicker skin.

edit...and I’ve only just caught up on the rest of the pages in the thread and seen you had a second dig about her being a woman, which I didn’t bother replying to in my initial reply, however implying anything about my views of her as being misogynistic is frankly pathetic and unnecessary.
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That's fine. I will just leave it be. Hopefully you will too. Not the place in here anyway.
 
On the recent plateauing as noted by @Healdplace : data from the FT using 7 day averages.

First the bad new: cases.

Split by country, and using a log scale. On a log scale, exponential growth or decay is a straight line, and you can see
(1) Very close agreement to exponential decay for all nations until recently. For England, that was halving every 15 days. Scotland a bit longer half time.
(2) All nations slow or stop the decline in the last few days
(3) England cases are currently still quite a bit higher than the other countries.

Given how high these caseloads are still (~10,000 daily, which historically has worked through to ~250 deaths) this is bad news unless it proves temporary. We can expect the planned return to school in a couple of weeks to worsen the situation too.

1613740798069.png

Now a possibility of light at the end of the tunnel, the deaths data

1613742068631.png

Same pattern, noisier data, noting the absolute numbers are quite low, just 8 for NI for instance.

But look at England - if you squint hard, is that line bending down beyond exponential decay? That's what you'd expect vaccination of higher risk groups to do. I hope and expect that to continue, and to be visible in the other countries over the next week or so.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
On the recent plateauing as noted by @Healdplace : data from the FT using 7 day averages.

First the bad new: cases.

Split by country, and using a log scale. On a log scale, exponential growth or decay is a straight line, and you can see
(1) Very close agreement to exponential decay for all nations until recently. For England, that was halving every 15 days. Scotland a bit longer half time.
(2) All nations slow or stop the decline in the last few days
(3) England cases are currently still quite a bit higher than the other countries.

Given how high these caseloads are still (~10,000 daily, which historically has worked through to ~250 deaths) this is bad news unless it proves temporary. We can expect the planned return to school in a couple of weeks to worsen the situation too.
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Children's mental health and educational growth is the priority, but it's the return to school that worries me most if we're pinning our hopes on sub-1,000 cases (or anything like that level) being the trigger to start a return to some form of normality. It'll be a while since parents and most teachers get the vaccination.

It's the slowing of hospitalisation that should be the focus, and that's where the good news lies.
 
Healdplace said:
Wonder if our in the know poster ref the AZ vaccine poster knows anything about the study that has been carried out on any change to transmission on those vaccinated with it and the Pfizer vaccine.

The Telegraph claim to have seen the data compiled from NHS staff who were vaccinated as it has been previewed to the PM but will not be published for a few days.

They claim it shows both vaccines significantly cut infectivity of those who have had it even after just one dose.

Are we to assume this is not being made up by the paper?
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I can't see behind the Telegraph paywall, but I don't understand how these studies are done. How is the infectivity of those vaccinated reduced? The only obvious way is by tracking overall community infection levels, but there's no way that's been affected yet, vaccination rates far too low. Plus how to deconvolute Pfizer vs AZ when both have been used?

Are we sure they're not reporting protection of the vaccinated rather than infectivity?
 
Those graphs are fascinating. About the same degree encouraging and discouraging.

But the hospital data is still on the side of encouraging so on balance let us hope.

Do you know if prevalence of specific variants regionally might be a factor as NW and Midlands still seem to be the main reason we have stalled numbers.
 
unicorn said:
It's the slowing of hospitalisation that should be the focus, and that's where the good news lies.
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The problem is that if cases surge again, hospitalisations will too. And there's the danger of driving mutations. So I think we do need low case rates, 1000 seems reasonable to me but of course that's a matter of judgement. However, I'd hope schools could be back before that.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
I can't see behind the Telegraph paywall, but I don't understand how these studies are done. How is the infectivity of those vaccinated reduced? The only obvious way is by tracking overall community infection levels, but there's no way that's been affected yet, vaccination rates far too low. Plus how to deconvolute Pfizer vs AZ when both have been used?

Are we sure they're not reporting protection of the vaccinated rather than infectivity?
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I could not read it either for the details why I hoped our 'mole' from AZ in here might know more.

Though likely unable to share due to confidentiality which is perfectly understandable.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
The problem is that if cases surge again, hospitalisations will too. And there's the danger of driving mutations. So I think we do need low case rates, 1000 seems reasonable to me but of course that's a matter of judgement. However, I'd hope schools could be back before that.
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Yes without doubt the pressure to open up too fast is the biggest concern we have as it risks losing all the recent gains but hopefully it looks like that penny has dropped in all 4 UK Nations.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
The problem is that if cases surge again, hospitalisations will too. And there's the danger of driving mutations. So I think we do need low case rates, 1000 seems reasonable to me but of course that's a matter of judgement. However, I'd hope schools could be back before that.
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Cases among under-40 (who won't be vaccinated before May-June, will presumably lead to lower rates of hospitalisation though I acknowledge Long Covid can be devastating even if it doesn't need a hospital stay at the time.

1,000 cases a day seems reasonable to me too; I just fear how long it'll take to get there with schools open and more people at work than there were in Lockdown 1.
 
315 England hospital deaths - was 407 last Friday.

Worryingly though 64 from North West - over 20% on a Friday is a concern.

Only the Midlands higher at 66.

As I noted above NW and Midlands are the problem in England right now and may be why we have stalled.

Is it new variants that are the issue?
 
roubaixtuesday said:
I can't see behind the Telegraph paywall, but I don't understand how these studies are done. How is the infectivity of those vaccinated reduced? The only obvious way is by tracking overall community infection levels, but there's no way that's been affected yet, vaccination rates far too low. Plus how to deconvolute Pfizer vs AZ when both have been used?

Are we sure they're not reporting protection of the vaccinated rather than infectivity?
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I'm guessing they are using positivity as a proxy for infectivity and possibly doing regular swabbing on a cohort possibly of health care workers.
 
Read a couple of weeks ago that a French study suggested if a person has had Covid and then the AZ first dose it acts as a booster much like the normal second dose.

Had mine this morning, no problems at all and for those few who may have a fear of needles please rest assured there is nothing to fret about. I know phobias are terrible to overcome (mine's thunder and lightning on a golf course, I go into a huge panic and my brain freezes) but there's plenty of advice online on how to beat the fear. It's one small pinch of the skin that will hopefully stop you catching Covid opposed to getting the disease and being seriously ill and hospitalised with all manner of equipment possibly keeping you alive.
 
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