Coronavirus (2021) thread

[BLUEMATT23]

To pose an obvious question why are our figures so high when we have had a lockdown for a few weeks and severe restriction?
I'm puzzled as to how day after day its seemingly getting worse despite the restrictions.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Two studies back in October. One in the US and one in the UK.

UK study (March to June)

https://journals.lww.com/ccmjournal/Fulltext/2021/02000/Improving_Survival_of_Critical_Care_Patients_With.5.aspx

US study (March to August)

Trends in COVID-19 Risk-Adjusted Mortality Rates

*Corresponding Author: Leora I Horwitz, MD, MHS; Email: Leora.Horwitz@nyulangone.org; Telephone: 646-501-2685; Twitter: @leorahorwitzmd.

www.journalofhospitalmedicine.com

Things may have improved more with the anti-imflamatary treatments approved since but the critical care report October- December 2020 will tell us that.

You also have to match cases to deaths (as that is the 3 week period) hospitalisation occurs somewhere in between.

But right now, the figure here is at least 18% (actually higher still if you take lag into account) not 8%.

So there's no basis for you to use 8% to project forward, is there, surely?

 

[Healdplace]

More later after the match.

 

[ayrshire_blue]

To pose an obvious question why are our figures so high when we have had a lockdown for a few weeks and severe restriction?
I'm puzzled as to how day after day its seemingly getting worse despite the restrictions.

The death numbers are getting worse. The infection numbers are improving.

This is because, for example, someone picked up an infection on say New Year's eve. They didn't know it at the time, but that's when they picked it up. A few days later they felt a bit off and got tested. They then tested positive on say 5th of January. After that, it took them time to become ill and eventually go to hospital on the 9th of January. Condition worsened so they go into intensive care on the 14th of January, and today sadly they're included in the tragic death figures.

This is why we're saying that today's numbers are an example of what people were doing weeks ago, not now. Infection numbers are now going down because of lockdown, so we have to keep it that way.

 

[Mayor West]

To pose an obvious question why are our figures so high when we have had a lockdown for a few weeks and severe restriction?
I'm puzzled as to how day after day its seemingly getting worse despite the restrictions.

That's what I keep thinking, surely it's still not from christmas/new year.

 

[Healdplace]

GM Summary at half time.

Up 410 on yesterday. Slightly worse than rest of North West so percentage of NW total rises from 29.1 to 29.9%

Pretty much everywhere up today but most not by much.

Wigan biggest riser - back over 200.

But nobody under 100 today either.

 

[Healdplace]

England hospital data last 24 hours:

Patients 33, 886 - down 129. Ventilators 3603 - exactly the same as yesterday.


Regions:

East

Patients up 78 to 4068.
Ventilators down 21 to 334

London

Patients down 123 to 7588
Ventilators up 1 to 1208

Midlands

Patients up 25 to 6350
Ventilators up 13 to 615


NE/Yorkshire

Patients down 20 to 3810
Ventilators up 12 to 328


North West

Patients up 11 to 4318. Highest Ever
Ventilators up 6 to 387. Highest Ever


South East

Patients down 112 to 5397
Ventilators down 12 to 519


South West

Patients up 10 to 2347
Ventilators up 1 to 212. Highest Ever.

 

[BlueAnorak]

But right now, the figure here is at least 18% (actually higher still if you take lag into account) not 8%.

So there's no basis for you to use 8% to project forward, is there, surely?

Well see when the iCU report comes out.

 

[feedthegoat27]

Saga have become the first major tour operator to announce they will only accept clients on trips/cruises that have had both jabs of the vaccine.

Looks to be a sensible decision given their target demographic (even if they have tried to model themselves more towards that 50-60 market in recent years)

I imagine a number of other companies will follow suit, particularly ones that deal in escorted touring and trips of that nature.

A quick glance at comments on the Saga FB page is quite depressing, although I'm sure they are the vocal minority against this decision.

 

[blueparrot]

Saga have become the first major tour operator to announce they will only accept clients on trips/cruises that have had both jabs of the vaccine.

Looks to be a sensible decision given their target demographic (even if they have tried to model themselves more towards that 50-60 market in recent years)

I imagine a number of other companies will follow suit, particularly ones that deal in escorted touring and trips of that nature.

A quick glance at comments on the Saga FB page is quite depressing, although I'm sure they are the vocal minority against this decision.

I think its a good idea, but how will they know who’s had it ?