Holy shit. Not a chance mate. Seriously. So optimistic about how quickly and effectively the vaccines will help us achieve immunity.
Factors out the door and down the street why that would not be the case. Organise that many voluntary jabs in a concentrated time? We have nothing in infrastructure and no experience like that. Training people?
Just getting the vulnerable groups in an orderly and timely fashion is going to be a miracle in practise. Seriously, as impressive as it gets.
Think on. There's no way of forcing people to get it quickly. And many will want to wait and see. Or won't, can't make time. Missed second appointments. Failed jabs. Poor reactions, coincidental illnesses, huge scare stories.
Then, uhh. 12 week gap for Oxford second dose. Nowhere near enough supply of any of these globally. Every batch being fought for by more than just governments.
General risk of unprecedented viral loads about to reach untold heights.
And nothing, nothing proven in the field.
Whew.
My dream scenario is no lockdowns next winter, and long covid not wrecking the next 12 months for 2m otherwise fit and healthy people. That is considered the height of optimism around here.
5 weeks???? I can't get a regular appointment at a GP in 5 weeks. There were 18 people queing on the phone at 11 am today. And it's been like that all year!
I understand the pessimism but there's not a lot of basis to any of these claims.
For a start, no volunteers are needed for the 2m a week figure, that's going to be hit when 1000 centres across the country open and we're already at 730 today, with that expected to almost double in the next 2 weeks as more GP offices come online with non-medical volunteers (ie organising queues and registering arrivals on a PC).
Secondly supply, you're just flat out wrong here, the Telegraph have reported today we have 24 million combined doses at AZ and delivered from Pfizer already waiting ready to go right now, available to be delivered anywhere in the country within days.
As for the second dose, as I already replied, that's not important. If you give people the first dose they are pretty much out of the equation as far as the pandemic is concerned. Pfizer first dose gives 90% immunity in the short term, and 80% for Oxford/AZ according to MHRA, so once you've got that you are as good as immune until the second jab in 12 weeks time.
As for "forcing" people to take it, or vaccine avoiders...they just don't exist on the level you think they do. There is no shortage of people wanting the vaccine and there won't be among the demographics who actually risk death when they get infected.
Pessimism is expected but a lot of your claims are over the top and baseless. We have the infrastructure, we have the vaccine, what we need is to hear the government speaking clearly about how they're going to scale this up by the third week of January as promised so people can start believing it.
