Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Eds]

Boom and there we have it folks. Need to have a little more patience, ramp up the daily numbers and before we know it we will return to some normality, however with some restrictions in place I believe such as mask wearing, possibly no huge sporting events to be at capacity and possible hot spots for holiday destinations to ensure we don't bring much a more virulent strain

 

[PannickAtTheDisco]

Boom and there we have it folks. Need to have a little more patience, ramp up the daily numbers and before we know it we will return to some normality, however with some restrictions in place I believe such as mask wearing, possibly no huge sporting events to be at capacity and possible hot spots for holiday destinations to ensure we don't bring much a more virulent strain

think we honestly need to be brave and say no international travel this year without pre-approval, continue to shut down arrivals and let the labs scour the world for the new variants elsewhere and update their vaccines for them and model their best predictions for future mutations and create a booster that will cover as many as possible. Then inocculate through 2021 and then open up when we've got the best chance of being covered. No point opening up just to let the South African or Brazilian variant take a hold and we're back struggling again.

 

[Healdplace]

Wife got invite letter today, it was dated 4th February. Online site would not accept a booking so she rang 119 and got it sorted out there for 1st dose tomorrow afternoon.

Looks like they dated all the letters last week in expectation of running ahead by a week or so of the plan to start under 70s from next Monday (as announced officially today) but likely only posted them this week knowing the usual high spec tech that gov uk seems to use would probably do a Little Britain if they arrived on time.....as in Computer Says No!

 

[Nebuchadnezzar]

Anyone in the trafford area know of 60-65 getting it yet? That's my dad's age and im genuinely curious! The day my mum and dad get theirs is the day i breathe a huge sigh of relief

My aunty and uncle have had it, both just under 65 and had it at a GP surgery in Timperley.

 

[twosips]

My aunty and uncle have had it, both just under 65 and had it at a GP surgery in Timperley.

Interesting! Do they have underlying health conditions?

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Following on from the positive info from Israel, my own noddy look at the England hospital data here.

Graph is the proportion of over 80s recorded in hospital deaths. We expect that to drop as they were the first cohort vaccinated. Vaccination started Dec 8th, so you'd expect an impact on deaths to start coming through about a month later. Here's the data. Daily numbers are plotted in red, weekly average in blue and the overall deaths in grey on the right hand axis.



Exactly what we'd expect - a fairly steady decline in over 80s as a proportion of the total.

I've also had a look at the first wave last April. Rather a different picture:



We see the opposite - more older people dying in hospital over time as a proportion.

I think this is pretty convincing evidence of a vaccine effect - but then the easiest person to fool is always yourself!

It's possible to roughly quantify the effect - it works out at ~10% reduction in total deaths, or 25 people a day are currently being saved through vaccination in English Hospitals. The total in the UK community can be expected to be quite a bit higher - I think most out of hospital deaths are elderly.

 

[Nebuchadnezzar]

Interesting! Do they have underlying health conditions?

Uncle is diabetic and BAME but I'm sure the ethnicity part doesn't actually come into consideration.

Aunty has had various small skin cancers. Again, not sure that matters because she also kept working as a school cleaner throughout.

 

[give it to gordon]

Has anyone heard anything official about over 60's being called for a jab yet?

I got a text from my GP practice on Wednesday inviting me to book a jab, which I had yesterday. When I got there, there were people in the queue giving their dates of birth in the 1950s, ie sixty-somethings.

I'm guessing that the ramp-up of capacity has hoovered up all the over 70's and key workers who want a jab, and now they are starting on my age group to keep things flowing. It seems to be the case in the North East, and I also had a message from a mate in Hampshire who has got a jab booked. He's 67.

My area thanet has started doing the 60's this week. I said to the lady doing the bookings I was surprised, she said lots of people are turning down the jab so we have got to the 60's quick than expected.

 

[Healdplace]

Northern Ireland data:

9 deaths - was 16 last week

407 cases - was 506 last week

16.2% positivity - was 16.8% last week

7 day rolling total 2393 - was 2377 yesterday and 3203 last week

Care home outbreaks 78 - was 80 yesterday and 98 last week - these are falling fast now a very good sign

488 patients - was 518 yesterday and 636 last week - again plummeting like Scotland and England are too.

51 ventilated - was 53 yesterday and 61 last week - again a really hopeful sign.

 

[i8rags]

Once they're open the next phase is trying to get your wallet open ;-)

That’s in a permanent lockdown mate, socially distanced from the bar as well.