Coronavirus (2021) thread

Status
Not open for further replies.
Remember the "game changing" vitamin D study being touted around a few days ago claiming 60% reduction in deaths...

1613744073161.png

Oops.

Moral: if it's too good to be true, it's probably not true.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
The problem is that if cases surge again, hospitalisations will too. And there's the danger of driving mutations. So I think we do need low case rates, 1000 seems reasonable to me but of course that's a matter of judgement. However, I'd hope schools could be back before that.
Click to expand...

Do you think hospitalisation can still surge with the same intensity though, given 95% of over 70s have had one jab?

My understanding is even one jab brings down severity of illness quite some
 
The age range of the 315 England deaths is on trend today again.


0 - 19 (1) 0.3%

20 - 39 (3) 0.9%

40 - 59 (27) 8.6%

60 - 79 (137) 43.5%

80 PLUS (147) 46.7%


Much the same pattern with again the over 80s now well under 50% and very close to the next oldest age group and the under 60s again near 10%.

The over 80s have been under 50% now very steadily and it is without doubt a notable change.

Think it is hard not to call this vaccine related now given its consistency.

Especially given that we know most care homes are now vaccinated and in places where we have daily data (eg N Ireland) the number of outbreaks there has been dropping very fast in past weeks.

The low numbers of out of hospital death adds on in England support the same conclusion.

A month ago care homes were a huge factor in the England deaths.
 
Last edited:
Healdplace said:
The age range of the 315 England deaths is on trend today again.


0 - 19 (1) 0.3%

20 - 39 (3) 0.9%

40 - 59 (27) 8.6%

60 - 79 (137) 43.5%

80 PLUS (147) 46.7%


Much the same pattern with again the over 80s now well uder 50% and very close to the next okdest age group and the under 60s again near 10%.
Click to expand...
46.7% is very low.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
I can't see behind the Telegraph paywall, but I don't understand how these studies are done. How is the infectivity of those vaccinated reduced? The only obvious way is by tracking overall community infection levels, but there's no way that's been affected yet, vaccination rates far too low. Plus how to deconvolute Pfizer vs AZ when both have been used?

Are we sure they're not reporting protection of the vaccinated rather than infectivity?
Click to expand...
Don’t know how it could be done, sure there must be a way though. Was speaking to my daughter yesterday and all the staff in her hospital were vaccinated in December, then in the next couple of weeks there were a couple of positive cases but since then none that she knows of. What ‘s hard to know though if that’s the vaccine working (they all had pfizer) which it will be. How would you then know if it’s preventing transmission while still locked down.
 
shemnel said:
Do you think hospitalisation can still surge with the same intensity though, given 95% of over 70s have had one jab?

My understanding is even one jab brings down severity of illness quite some
Click to expand...

I posted earlier that the ultra high uptake of vaccines is extremely good news in that respect. The data on severity of illness from the clinical trials is very good, but based on very small numbers (zero vs 10 severe for the AZ vaccine on active vs placebo). So we're not yet sure just how good these vaccines will be. The emerging Israeli data is looking extremely good, but still early. And Israel has exclusively used Pfizer.

Plus remember that the median age for ICU is only 60.

Plus the effects of long Covid and just a huge number of people sick.

So I agree things are looking positive, and I'm personally very optimistic, but there are good reasons to remain cautious in how we open up.
 
Ban-jani said:
46.7% is very low.
Click to expand...
It never has been consistently.

Last time it was this low is in Early Autumn with deaths around 80 - 100 a day in England.

So it is at that level with deaths 3 times as many suggesting more than just statistics involved. And a genuine drop off of maybe around 30/40% in that age range.

Though I may well not understand maths enough for that statement to be true and if it is gibberish please feel free to say so!
 
Last edited:
Northern Ireland data:

5 deaths - was 9 last week

313 cases - was 407 last week

13.1% positivity - was 16.2% last week

% levels falling all over the UK is another significant fact being missed by many just focusing on case numbers

We are doing many many more tests these days

7 day rolling case total 2072 - up from 2041 yesterday - was 2393 last week.

Numbers are stalling but there is less further down to go when you are 300 than 3000.

Care home outbreaks 47 - down from 49 yesterday - was 78 last Friday and 98 week before.

This is the big indicator that the vaccines are working in that cases and deaths have fallen by more than half in two weeks

403 Patients - down from 418 yesterday and 488 last week.

41 Ventilated - down from 42 yesterday and 51 last week.

Hospital numbers here falling much like the other nations.

And they ARE being ultra cautious in NI having already extended the lockdown here to 1 April.
 
Healdplace said:
It never has been consistently.

Last time it was this low is in Early Autumn with deaths around 80 - 100 a day in England.

So it is at that level with deaths 3 times as many suggesting more than just statistics involved. And a genuine drop off of maybe around 30/40% in that age range.

Though I may well not understand maths enough for that statement to be true and if it is gibberish please feel free to say so!
Click to expand...

Here's the data back to last July. You can see how much more variable it is when total numbers are lower, and also how consistent the trend down since vaccinations started is.

Will be interesting to see where this goes as the 50-80 year old vaccinations kick in. Should rebound, I think.

1613746956822.png
 
So the total UK deaths today with only out of hospital England to come is 367. Lowest weekday total this year.

Here are the last 5 week totals wk to wk:


1165 v 865 v 659 v 508 v 367

Pretty impressive fall in one month in mid winter.

The numbers it has dropped each week are bound to reduce but even that trend is pretty good.

A 141 fall this week v 151 last week v 206 week before and 300 week before that - percentage wise that is actually UP a little this week.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Here's the data back to last July. You can see how much more variable it is when total numbers are lower, and also how consistent the trend down since vaccinations started is.

Will be interesting to see where this goes as the 50-80 year old vaccinations kick in. Should rebound, I think.

View attachment 10834
Click to expand...

There will still be elderly people dying 'with' Covid but not necessarily because of it I would think. Anyone who has tested positive for Covid within 28 days of death will be counted as a Covid related death even if really it was caused by another illness.

Edit: my point is that over time the most elderly will make up a much higher proportion of a much smaller number of overall deaths for the reasons I have posted above (it wasn't very clear in my first attempt).
 
Last edited:
Cases for the three nations today without England and for past 4 weeks:

5169 v 2370 v 1800 v 1845 v 1731 today

Huge falls in cases once the pot Christmas/New Year rise was over and a very obvious plateau in the past fortnight

Almost exactly what we see in the same period in London and the South and to a lesser degree in Greater Manchester
 
Invisible Man's Bandage said:
There will still be elderly people dying 'with' Covid but not necessarily because of it I would think. Anyone who has tested positive for Covid within 28 days of death will be counted as a Covid related death even if really it was caused by another illness.
Click to expand...

I doubt the effect is big enough to be detectable, and previous numbers suggest there are likely more missed by this measure than inaccurately ascribed to COVID. The chance of an elderly person dying in a given month is small.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
I doubt the effect is big enough to be detectable, and previous numbers suggest there are likely more missed by this measure than inaccurately ascribed to COVID. The chance of an elderly person dying in a given month is small.
Click to expand...


The point I was clumsily trying to make (see my edit) was that once more or less all of the adult population has been vaccinated then the most elderly groups will make up more or less all of a far lower number of deaths so they will have increased proportionally even more than at any point so far.
 
Invisible Man's Bandage said:
The point I was clumsily trying to make (see my edit) was that once more or less all of the adult population has been vaccinated then the most elderly groups will make up more or less all of a far lower number of deaths so they will have increased proportionally even more than at any point so far.
Click to expand...

I guess it would depend on whether the vaccine is relatively more efficacious in younger than older people. That seems to be the expectation, so I would expect it'll bounce back up to higher levels than seen previously. Of course if uptake is lower in younger people the opposite could be the case.

But hopefully overall numbers will be so small that measuring the ratio won't be meaningful.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Unread Posts

Don't have an account? Register now and see fewer ads!

SIGN UP
Back
Top