Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Tim of the Oak said:
On the theme of good news, it’s been a refreshing change for the BBC to have focussed on young entrepreneurs, over the last couple of days, who have started new businesses during the pandemic. I wish these folks the best of luck.
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There's some really positive stories.

In my bit of Sheffield (Hillsborough) alone there's been two new dessert shop/cafes, a bakery and two beer shop/bars opened by young(ish) folk since I arrived, which might just show they're targeting me but does suggest there's some good business opportunities out there.
 
The Light Was Yellow Sir said:
As Boris has now spoken and said that 2 fully vaccinated people cannot meet indoors, as the vaccine isn’t 100% effective, it seems the chances of this being over are receding in inverse proportion to the data improving.
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Then how can he go further down his road map? Opening up pubs would contradict that advice or am I missing something?
Also Israel are allowing people to do so and the CDC in America have also stated that is okay.
Maybe he has seen how people stretch the rules here so doesn't want jeopardise the current easing process.
 
Invisible Man's Bandage said:
New Zealand is the most southerly inhabited county in the world. Chile has a few outcrops with a population of 36 which are slightly more to the south but apart from Antarctica with a few scientific stations that's it. It is the most remote low/medium sized country anywhere.
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I think those countries benefit from being destinations rather than hubs. Our airports and I suppose many of the large European ones are places where people pass through/change flights more than those you mentioned. Heathrow and Gatwick must be vast human petri-dishes in the big scheme of things.
 
Blue and still suffering said:
Then how can he go further down his road map? Opening up pubs would contradict that advice or am I missing something?
Also Israel are allowing people to do so and the CDC in America have also stated that is okay.
Maybe he has seen how people stretch the rules here so doesn't want jeopardise the current easing process.
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Or, maybe, it’s not an act at all and he’s really as clueless as he seems to be........
 
Has any body been keeping an eye on the vaccination data?

On the 24th March all the previous data was amended and then yesterday they did the same to the 7 days before.

No explaination just the previous published figures altered.
 
The Light Was Yellow Sir said:
As Boris has now spoken and said that 2 fully vaccinated people cannot meet indoors, as the vaccine isn’t 100% effective, it seems the chances of this being over are receding in inverse proportion to the data improving.
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Vaccination stops you getting a serious case of Covid. It also reduces the possibility of transmission but it doesn't eliminate it entirely. So when 1 in 300 have the virus you have to be careful especially when half the population haven't been vaccinated. The lower the prevalence, and the higher proportion of people that are vaccinated, the less restrictions that are required and you can say to vaccinated people that you can mix.

If we look in the UK in isolation, 31m have had 1 vaccine dose, 5m have had 2 doses. We are well on our way to vaccinating the population. However, we are an island on the globe.

We will know this is ending when we outrun the virus globally. At the moment I don't know the extent to which the virus is evolving. If I don't know that, then all I can do is play the numbers game. If the global pandemic comes under control through vaccination and natural immunity, then we will reach a point when a 2nd variant vaccine will enable us to exit the cycle. The best scenario is that we don't even need a variant vaccine because the variants don't or can't evolve far enough.
 
Marvin said:
Vaccination stops you getting a serious case of Covid. It also reduces the possibility of transmission but it doesn't eliminate it entirely. So when 1 in 300 have the virus you have to be careful especially when half the population haven't been vaccinated. The lower the prevalence, and the higher proportion of people that are vaccinated, the less restrictions that are required and you can say to vaccinated people that you can mix.

If we look in the UK in isolation, 31m have had 1 vaccine dose, 5m have had 2 doses. We are well on our way to vaccinating the population. However, we are an island on the globe.

We will know this is ending when we outrun the virus globally. At the moment I don't know the extent to which the virus is evolving. If I don't know that, then all I can do is play the numbers game. If the global pandemic comes under control through vaccination and natural immunity, then we will reach a point when a 2nd variant vaccine will enable us to exit the cycle. The best scenario is that we don't even need a variant vaccine because the variants don't or can't evolve far enough.
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Whilst I’m sure all that is correct, if 2 fully vaccinated people cannot meet up indoors, he must have changed the goalposts (yet again) and be back to a zero Covid strategy, which is impossible to achieve. Meanwhile, the current and future deaths related to lockdown and it’s effects, continue unabated.
 
The Light Was Yellow Sir said:
Whilst I’m sure all that is correct, if 2 fully vaccinated people cannot meet up indoors, he must have changed the goalposts (yet again) and be back to a zero Covid strategy, which is impossible to achieve. Meanwhile, the current and future deaths related to lockdown and it’s effects, continue unabated.
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I hope the current Covid measures are temporary and will change according to overall risk and virus levels.
 
Blue and still suffering said:
Then how can he go further down his road map? Opening up pubs would contradict that advice or am I missing something?
Also Israel are allowing people to do so and the CDC in America have also stated that is okay.
Maybe he has seen how people stretch the rules here so doesn't want jeopardise the current easing process.
Click to expand...
Stretch the rules - is that another way of saying people here blatantly disregard the rules / law and don’t give a fuck
 
Dutch have again paused the AZ trickle out in those <60. Woman vaccinated died, lung embolism and cerebral haemorrhage, apparently, so further investigations to be conducted before recommencing.
 
Wales data:

BIG CAVEAT HERE

It is not clear what day this data refers to because they did not report yesterday and are not reporting tomorrow but say that Monday and Tuesday will BOTH be two day totals and so likely double usual numbers.

I THINK the data here must be that from Thursday that would normally have been reported yesterday. But the vaccination numbers announced today only really makes sense if this is what should have been reported for the two days (Thursday & Friday) as would have been reported yesterday and today.

So - unless they tell us otherwise - I work on the basis the vaccinations are double day numbers here from Thursday and Friday and the case numbers below are from Thursday only - we will get nothing tomorrow - on Monday we will get Friday and Today combined and on Tuesday Sunday and Monday combined.

So the case comparators here that I use are versus last Friday's report NOT last Saturday's as that would be misleading.

2 deaths - was 3 last Friday

95 cases- was 190 last Friday

0.9% positivity - was 1.3% last Friday

A good result whatever day it comes from.
 
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Wales vaccination data (for Thursday & Friday I am assuming what would have been reported Friday PLUS today I am assuming again as above).

1, 472, 643 first doses - 28, 758 (on I assume Thursday & Friday) - was 16, 702 Wednesday & 45, 167 for last Thur & Fri

463, 445 second doses - 13, 907 (on I assume Thursday & Friday) - 11, 601 Wednesday & 21, 948 for last Thur & Fri


As you can see it is hard to be sure as the first doses are almost double the day before but only a few thousand above the previous day. Whereas the second doses are a little above a single day but well below last week's two days.

I assumed that the lower supply for April we have been told about makes the two day vaccination data most likely.

But this is only guesswork and no idea why they could not be more explicit.

I imagine it will become clear on Monday and Tuesday when we get the promised two day data.

It may indeed then turn out the above is really just the one day (that should have been reported Friday). And we get two days Fri + Sat and Sun + Mon then - for vaccinations as well as case data.
 
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Zoe app today predicts more big falls

Cases down by 245 to 3140 - lowest yet - it was only 17 out yesterday. Closest it has estimated the real number in ages.

And ongoing symptomatic cases another big fall of 2358 - that is pushing 5000 fall in 48 hours. To 59, 479.

This number was over 100,000 just a few weeks ago but has fallen daily for those weeks.

These are the self reported cases of people in the UK right now with symptomatic Covid.

North West has fallen from best to mid table in the last 3 days. But not because it is doing badly. Largely as other areas of the UK have been tumbling.

The current ratings for each of the nations and the 7 England regions - based on the reported case ranges within the area from lowest to highest per 1million population is:-


Scotland 24 - 193

NE & Yorkshire 29 - 143

Midlands 23 - 111 (Only these top 3 are rated Red Zone)

Wales 10 - 106

London 24 - 82

North West 18 - 87

East 19 - 76

South West 19 - 75

South East 21 - 59

N Ireland 0 - 426 (huge range but low average I assume).
 
The Light Was Yellow Sir said:
Whilst I’m sure all that is correct, if 2 fully vaccinated people cannot meet up indoors, he must have changed the goalposts (yet again) and be back to a zero Covid strategy, which is impossible to achieve. Meanwhile, the current and future deaths related to lockdown and it’s effects, continue unabated.
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Nothing has changed though, the date for people meeting up indoors was and still is (no earlier than) May 17th, by which all the most vulnerable groups will (or should) have had both doses of the vaccine, and have in theory maximum protection (at 59 I still won't have that until May 28th). If there wasn't a "date" people would just do what they wanted or felt was OK, and that is what we had before with the daft tier system.
 
Marvin said:
Vaccination stops you getting a serious case of Covid. It also reduces the possibility of transmission but it doesn't eliminate it entirely. So when 1 in 300 have the virus you have to be careful especially when half the population haven't been vaccinated. The lower the prevalence, and the higher proportion of people that are vaccinated, the less restrictions that are required and you can say to vaccinated people that you can mix.

If we look in the UK in isolation, 31m have had 1 vaccine dose, 5m have had 2 doses. We are well on our way to vaccinating the population. However, we are an island on the globe.

We will know this is ending when we outrun the virus globally. At the moment I don't know the extent to which the virus is evolving. If I don't know that, then all I can do is play the numbers game. If the global pandemic comes under control through vaccination and natural immunity, then we will reach a point when a 2nd variant vaccine will enable us to exit the cycle. The best scenario is that we don't even need a variant vaccine because the variants don't or can't evolve far enough.
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I was really hoping youd get through that without saying ‘variant’
 
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