Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Healdplace said:
HOSPITAL DATA


England only:-


PATIENTS:-

Patients down today by 51 to 2057 v 2588 last week :- lowest since 30 September

Peak was 34, 336 on 18 Jan (fall 32, 279 in 85 days)

Ventilators: down 4 to 333 v 406 last week :- lowest since 5 October

Peak was 3736 on 24 Jan (fall 3403 in 79 days)
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There's a lot of "noise" in the case and hospital data at the moment with holidays, redefinitions of cases and so on, but the bigger picture is that the numbers in hospital continue to drop week-by-week. Looks very good.
 
zerox said:
if no men have had blood clot, why have the Americans stopped the men from having the vac?
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Up to now we only have statistical abnormities that need checking but couldn't work out the mechanism of cerebral blood clotting.
We cannot scientifically exclude men from that risk until then.
We have a suspicion, not more.
 
St.Pauli support said:
Honestly, you sound like AZ's head of PR. Are you?

You do well know that regulators of new vaccines are aware that it's about efficacy of a new product and at the same time about safety,
for the reason that healthy women and men are given an artificial product although they might never get in touch with that virus.
I think this philosophy is not fully understood.

The CVST risk profile for men and older women is by far in favour of the vaccine, for younger women it is clearly not.

We have a workaround for CVST because we have different vaccines with different risk profiles.
IMO it would be irresponsible to ignore those scientific facts.
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And tbh mate you're sounding like a PR spokesman for the US health authorities.

Most people I think would say that given the infinitesimally small risks of complications and blood clot deaths - and in your case 1 blood clot death from the J&J vaccine (FFS), the BEST outcome would be to vaccinate as many people as possible with absolutely anything you can get your hands on. The fewer the numbers of people who get vaccinated, the more deaths there are. Simple as that. Pausing vaccinations over such trivial numbers of complications not only deprives some people directly but also - and this is the key point - deters many thousands, millions perhaps - from getting vaccinated at all.

And if you want evidence that what I suggest is the right policy, just look at the UK's performance and where we are with daily deaths now compared to the rest of the EU. They paused, and look at them. We didn't and look at us.

It's about the only thing we got right in this whole sorry situation.
 
BlueAnorak said:
Awful figure but it really is a lot worse elsewhere.

It's 200k plus in Russia according to their official statistics agency https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-russia-toll-idUSKCN2AX272
400k plus according to some...
www.bbc.com

Coronavirus: How Russia glosses over its Covid death toll

The reality behind Russia's pandemic is most likely to be found in its excessive mortality rates.
www.bbc.com www.bbc.com
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At 200k deaths in Russia they're still a lot better than us per capita.
At the 'some say' figure of 400k they're about 20% worse than us per capita.
In world terms we are now being overtaken by smaller East European countries AND now Italy.
Other major countries around the world still have some way to go before they catch up with the UK.
So it isn't really 'a lot worse elsewhere' just yet.
I tend to look at the UK and think how much better we could and should have been i.e. one of the best in the world.
 
mr t said:
These South African variant cases in London are a concern. It seems to boil down to one person who came here from Africa in February. Must be a few cases out there by now and probably still spreading which is shite as it’s thought it may be resistant to current vaccines being used here in the UK. Let’s hope it can be stopped in it’s tracks.
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if its going back to February it could pop up anywhere now,the genie is out of the bottle
 
unicorn said:
Just chatting to a bloke outside Sheffield pub who'd not had 1st jab yet. 60 years old, never registered with a GP, no NHS number which he thought was a problem. I told him he just needed proof of age; urged him to get it before we go inside pubs. Hopefully he's booked by now (though he was on his 5th pint). Quite a few missed like this I guess.
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Why go get a jab when he can go get a pint sorry pints ;) and yes they'll be lots like this..
 
Len Rum said:
At 200k deaths in Russia they're still a lot better than us per capita.
At the 'some say' figure of 400k they're about 20% worse than us per capita.
In world terms we are now being overtaken by smaller East European countries AND now Italy.
Other major countries around the world still have some way to go before they catch up with the UK.
So it isn't really 'a lot worse elsewhere' just yet.
I tend to look at the UK and think how much better we could and should have been i.e. one of the best in the world.
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In a bizarre twist, I find myself agreeing with you Len. I still look back to the beginning of this crisis when we had a 2 or 3 week window of opportunity ahead of the rest of Europe and Italy in particular and we squandered it, doing nothing and coming out with crap like the need to suppress the peak and "not going to early". I believe tens of thousands of people died needless because of that balls up. And it's been a constant theme of locking down too late, not enforcing restrictions hard enough, and coming out of lockdown too early. We pride ourselves as being one of the "free-est" nations on earth but in this case, it's done us no favours.

I think often about the situation in South Korea where they got infections before us. They have a similar population to us and a similar demographic in terms of age. (I don't know about BMI, to be fair.) But they know what they are doing because they were SARS-aware. They have 35 deaths per 1m of population. That is what "good" looks like.

By comparison, we are on about 1,800 deaths per 1m. We've done terribly, rescued only a bit by getting our act together with the vaccination program.
 
Chippy_boy said:
And tbh mate you're sounding like a PR spokesman for the US health authorities.

Most people I think would say that given the infinitesimally small risks of complications and blood clot deaths - and in your case 1 blood clot death from the J&J vaccine (FFS), the BEST outcome would be to vaccinate as many people as possible with absolutely anything you can get your hands on. The fewer the numbers of people who get vaccinated, the more deaths there are. Simple as that. Pausing vaccinations over such trivial numbers of complications not only deprives some people directly but also - and this is the key point - deters many thousands, millions perhaps - from getting vaccinated at all.

And if you want evidence that what I suggest is the right policy, just look at the UK's performance and where we are with daily deaths now compared to the rest of the EU. They paused, and look at them. We didn't and look at us.

It's about the only thing we got right in this whole sorry situation.
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What I heard from your PM yesterday and various scientists:
low UK covid death toll is a consequence of the hard lockdown, NOT vaccination. The pure impact of very high immunity % kicks in later, even in UK. IMO it's difficult to assess the pure impact though in such a multi factorial approach.

In terms of risk evaluation, we have a different view in terms of individual rights. It would be a very interesting debate why a country very much based on liberalism, UK - keeping the gov out of your free individual life as much as possible - shouldn't insist on individual young women's rights of health, if the risk of severe covid complications isn't much higher for them than CVST risks after vaccination.

Anyway, I'll never get an answer why it's so stupid to just go on vaccinating different people with different vaccines if we have the choice. IMO it's simple quality management.
 
Regional Cases Today


Also v 7 days ago


SOUTH

East down `165 to 204 v 191

London down 148 to 274 v 194

South East down 130 to 232 v 218

South West down 87 to 117 v 94




MIDLANDS

East down 154 to 211 v 221

West down 144 to 167 v 217



NORTH

North East down 67 to 117 v 74

Yorkshire down 93 to 403 v 383

And, NORTH WEST down 186 to 315 v 319


Everywhere down - North West by double Yorkshire which returns to the top spot again,

Cases are very similar week to week you will note but many slightly down like the NW by just 4.

Which as Easter was low is good news.

The southern regions seem up more week to week than further north.

All in all things look in OK shape.








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Had my second jab yesterday and the guy said it would be "A Walk in the Park"
So far I've had a temp of 38.5
Aches And Pains in my legs and Mega Headaches
Thank Goodness for Paracetamol
Some bleeding walk in the park that was!
 
St.Pauli support said:
What I heard from your PM yesterday and various scientists:
low UK covid death toll is a consequence of the hard lockdown, NOT vaccination. The pure impact of very high immunity % kicks in later, even in UK. IMO it's difficult to assess the pure impact though in such a multi factorial approach.

In terms of risk evaluation, we have a different view in terms of individual rights. It would be a very interesting debate why a country very much based on liberalism, UK - keeping the gov out of your free individual life as much as possible - shouldn't insist on individual young women's rights of health, if the risk of severe covid complications isn't much higher for them than CVST risks after vaccination.

Anyway, I'll never get an answer why it's so stupid to just go on vaccinating different people with different vaccines if we have the choice. IMO it's simple quality management.
Click to expand...
And I'm back to you sounding like a PR spokesman, but sure if that's your opinion then fine.

BTW, I don't remember any suggestions of "young women" having forced vaccinations.
 
Marvin said:
I don't think the mRNA vaccines are affected.

This is the Abstact of the paper I found. I searched for thrombocytopenia and adenovirus.

My emboldening. I haven't bothered reading it because there's stuff in the abstract such as Willebrand Factor, and P-selectin that I have never heard of but it sounds quite similar to the problems encountered with the COvid-19 vaccines.

HEMOSTASIS, THROMBOSIS, AND VASCULAR BIOLOGY| DECEMBER 5, 2006,
Volume 109, Issue 7
April 1 2007
Othman et al.

"Thrombocytopenia has been consistently reported following the administration of adenoviral gene transfer vectors. The mechanism underlying this phenomenon is currently unknown. In this study, we have assessed the influence of von Willebrand Factor (VWF) and P-selectin on the clearance of platelets following adenovirus administration. In mice, thrombocytopenia occurs between 5 and 24 hours after adenovirus delivery. The virus activates platelets and induces platelet-leukocyte aggregate formation. There is an associated increase in platelet and leukocyte-derived microparticles. Adenovirus-induced endothelial cell activation was shown by VCAM-1 expression on virus-treated, cultured endothelial cells and by the release of ultra-large molecular weight multimers of VWF within 1 to 2 hours of virus administration with an accompanying elevation of endothelial microparticles. In contrast, VWF knockout (KO) mice did not show significant thrombocytopenia after adenovirus administration. We have also shown that adenovirus interferes with adhesion of platelets to a fibronectin-coated surface and flow cytometry revealed the presence of the Coxsackie adenovirus receptor on the platelet surface. We conclude that VWF and P-selectin are critically involved in a complex platelet-leukocyte-endothelial interplay, resulting in platelet activation and accelerated platelet clearance following adenovirus administration."
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I took a quick look at the paper and I suspect it is not the same mechanism, though who knows for sure. However the thrombocytopenia was very quick in onset and recovered within a week.
The dose given to the mice was 10^11 particles which is about twice the quantity of a vaccin which is given to humans who are probably over 1000 times larger and it was given directly into the veins not as an IM injection.. The human reaction appears idiosyncratic and very rare indeed whereas the mouse model was not.
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
Simply because the virus is much more likely to be transmissable indoors than outdoors. I find it hard to believe that over a year into this pandemic people still dont know this.
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That’s correct but bollocks in the scenario I refer to.

6 people sat next to each other outside will still spread the virus. Hence distancing.

there is no distancing in pub gardens. It’s farcical.

if people can mix with 5 others at different times of the day/week/month potentially mixing with hundreds, then the rest of us should be permitted to mix with a limited number of people indoors assessing our own risk.

the public are going to wake up to this dictatorship when it is too late and the damage has already been done
 
Chippy_boy said:
And I'm back to you sounding like a PR spokesman, but sure if that's your opinion then fine.

BTW, I don't remember any suggestions of "young women" having forced vaccinations.
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Neither do I.

Mate, I'm in the scientific camp. Sadly I'm not good enough to be their spokesman.

Jab pause for AZ or J&J is nothing else than a political reaction in order to avoid any claims they'd have ignored a safety problem.
We will see a very quick check and updated FDA and EMA recommendations that fit the national vaccination strategies.
 
Greater Manchester Cases

171 cases today - down 47 on yesterday. And also down 9 on last week. More than the 4 the NW fell week to week! But in essence the same. The % of the NW at 54.2% is back where it has been for a while and more or less where it should be population wise - not in the stratosphere as it was when over 75% pre that case readjustment over the weekend.


The GM scoreboard has a far more familiar feel from the past week or two.


Manchester top scores on just 38 which is down 22 on day and 9 wk to wk

Wigan second highest on 25 which is also down 9 on the day and by 5 from last week

Oldham at 23 still struggling a bit up 2 on day and 8 on last week.

Bolton also scores 23 - up from 10 yesterday and 18 last week. So bit of a blip here too.

But Tameside on 13 is down 2 on the day and level week to week.

Bury a little up table again but on just 12 is a rise of 5 day to day and 7 week to week.

The other 3 have single figures:-

Rochdale has 9 - which is down 10 day to day and 9 week to week

Stockport is also on 9 - down 10 on the day and 4 from last week

Trafford top scores with just 7 down from 14 but exactly level with last week.


Weekly cases:-

Bury 33, Tameside 44, Trafford 44, Stockport 67, Salford 68, Rochdale 91, Bolton 98, Wigan 102, Oldham 125, Manchester 211
 
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