Coronavirus (2021) thread

[ell]

Im 6 weeks too young for this current round of vaccines. Boooo.

Have you tried booking one anyway? I know people who were a few weeks shy of 60 when they got called and the booking website still let them book, but people who were closer to 50 it would reject the booking.

 

[west didsblue]

Final, Irrefutable Proof that the Covid-19 Pandemic Never Existed

In an astonishing 12 minute video Dr Vernon Coleman uses the UK Government's own statistics to prove conclusively that there was never a pandemic and that covid 19 is no more dangerous than the annual flu. In rece

brandnewtube.com

Are you posting this because you believe it or for a laugh?

 

[BlueHammer85]

The pandemic is over in this country

no longer a UK pandemic, but it is a endemic

 

[mancity1]

Now that COVID has been in the community for 16 months in countries like the USA I assume different states had different responses to COVID like we did in Australia in respect of lockdowns , infection tracing and control , quarantine manditory mask wearing and the likeand the like.

the data should be in hopefully from a reliable source on say each State in the US their hard lockdown periods.

Perhaps to our US mooners do you have any reliable data since inception on a state by state breakdown of deaths for each country with a summary of days of lockdown for example something fairly simple to ascertain the impact of otherwise of lockdowns on death rates with and or from covid?

this would be useful for future management of community spread as immunisation continues I would suggest.

if the UK have managed responses by regions for example as opposed to rigid nationwide responses then this data would be useful to as no doubt death rates per 1000 would vary from region to region notwithstanding population density to measure the impact and effectiveness of lockdowns for example.

No doubt in isolation states with excellent tracing and tracking protocols would do much better I would assume than those that don't.

 

[Healdplace]

Not posted this data in a while, indeed I haven't even looked, but anyway...

Only 8 of the 231 infections in Scotland today are in people aged over 65

Perhaps even more interesting, only 50 of the 231 are even aged over 45.

As I say, I haven't looked in a while so I don't know if this is now the norm or today might just be particularly low in that regard, but it caught my eye anyway as we are vaccinating more people around that age group.

Thanks and it certainly is the pattern by the looks of it.

The Northern Ireland data is very similar. Last time I checked it the over 60s had fallen to sub 10% of the cases from pushing 30% and the under 30s were at about 62% from being half that. This is why even 2000 cases a day are now less of an issue as most of them are people who will not get terribly ill from it.

And if you look at the data I posted a couple of days ago - all the day to day England hospital admissions by age since mid January - you can see how the under 30s have doubled in those 3 months whilst the over 60s have plummeted.

Then the day after I posted that - yesterday - the number admitted to hospital in England in total with Covid fell to 98 - the first sub 100 number in many months.

So it is not a one off.

 

[M18CTID]

People might stop being terrified and that would never do.....

Every country in the world releases Covid figures on a daily bases regardless of how many or how few cases and deaths there are so I don't see the issue here, and with the key figures - hospitalisations, serious illness, and deaths - continuing to trend downwards in this country then I can't see how the current data can be seen as scaremongering. If anything, they're a source of huge optimism especially when comparisons to previous weeks and months are highlighted with the excellent work @Healdplace does on here every day.

 

[Healdplace]

Just a thought on the pandemic being over in the UK.

We are undoubtedly in an amazing position now compared to the ongoing tragic issues in many places elsewhere but that can very easily reverse if we react like every day is VE day. Celebrated as the end because locally the war WAS over. But the war itself was not. That came months later on VJ day.

That is the messaging we should be emphasising. The more who holiday in the UK not elsewhere in 2021 the better for both the UK economy and the risk of reimportation that they clearly cannot easily prevent however many people we tell not to avoid self isolating. Short of taking everyone off a plane from Benidorm and locking them in Strangeways for the week after. Which obviously we never will.

I am surprised incentives to have a staycation are not already being given by the government.

It is easy and tempting to jump to conclusions the vaccines worked (as to a degree they clearly have) and that is that.

But we should be careful as it is unclear as yet what is the relative impact of vaccine versus lockdown. The data looks good on the balance.

However, you could argue that the vaccines eliminated flu as that has been minimal whilst we have ramped them up in the winter and all but disappeared as a deadly threat.

Unfortunately they did in Australia too in their winter (which was last Summer for us - and so long pre vaccine) - so the impact was clearly more the measures taken to avoid Covid - from washing hands more to lockdown - that tamed flu. Easy to assume misleadingly why things happen.

Not being a downer as we are in a position much of the world can only still dream about and the vaccines are a triumph. Just warning that over confidence is now a bigger threat than the virus as it is something everyone will embrace after this past year from hell.

Managing the messaging from here is crucial.

 

[Healdplace]

ONS data on the virus published each Friday shows another fall (data is up to LAST Friday - as usual with these things 6 days behind):

England 1 in 610 (last wk 1 in 480)

Scotland 1 in 560 (last wk was 1 in 500)

But the other two nations are slightly up though still at a lower rate than England and Scotland:-

Wales to 1 in 840 from 1 in 920

N Ireland to 1 in 660 from 1 in 710

These are all pretty low levels. And are community levels - not counting hospital or care home cases - although these too are very low as we know.

 

[Healdplace]

Zoe also has a regional split suggesting how IF lockdown were eased regionally it would play out based on rates.

It will be no surprise to those who read my posts (not many of you left I know) that Yorkshire would be last out and North West immediately before it along with West Midlands.

Nearly all the southern regions would be out early as they are at lower levels

In this the Zoe data closely reflects the actual cases reported daily with the exception of London which has been the highest in the UK recently again after falling below (presumably that new variant) but is now showing good signs of losing that title and falling back into the southern pack and handing it back to either Yorkshire or North West. Right now it would be Yorkshire.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

the pandemic officially being over in the UK.

Really? Link would be nice.

Given definitions of a pandemic are generally about its international nature, I'm not sure that declaring it over in one country is even meaningful:

“an epidemic occurring worldwide, or over a very wide area, crossing international boundaries and usually affecting a large number of people”

Plus, it's for sure not over here; according to ONS today about 90,000 people currently have the disease, and about 40% of the population or so remain unvaccinated and susceptible.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, UK - Office for National Statistics

Estimates for England, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland.

www.ons.gov.uk

Controlled? Suppressed? Sure.

Over? Definitely not yet IMO.

 

[Healdplace]

Wales data:

0 deaths - was 0 last week

58 cases - was 48 last week

0.4% positivity - was 0.4% last week


That is now every weekday this week with cases - under 100 (102 for Sun AND Mon combined) - 53 (Tue) - 64 (Wed) - 68 (Thu) and 58 (Today)

 

[Healdplace]

Really? Link would be nice.

Given definitions of a pandemic are generally about its international nature, I'm not sure that declaring it over in one country is even meaningful:

“an epidemic occurring worldwide, or over a very wide area, crossing international boundaries and usually affecting a large number of people”

Plus, it's for sure not over here; according to ONS today about 90,000 people currently have the disease, and about 40% of the population or so remain unvaccinated and susceptible.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, UK - Office for National Statistics

Estimates for England, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland.

www.ons.gov.uk

Controlled? Suppressed? Sure.

Over? Definitely not yet IMO.

It was NOT me saying this.

I was responding to the multiple posts in here this morning before me saying it was being reported as such in the media today.

I have removed the word official as it is only SOME scientists at Oxford really claiming this being reported by the media. And others are - like you and me - more cautious. Hence my post about managing the messaging. People are desperate for this kind of news.

It may sell papers but it may also cost us all if we jump too soon.

That was the point of my post. Sorry if I did not make that clear. I have a busy week work wise as I mentioned a few days ago and cannot be here so much.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

It was NOT me saying this.

I was responding to the posts in here this morning saying it was being reported as such in the media today.

Ah sorry, I thought you were saying it had been officially announced.

Presumably just the Julia Hartley Brewer brigade as per usual then.

 

[grunge]

Really? Link would be nice.

Given definitions of a pandemic are generally about its international nature, I'm not sure that declaring it over in one country is even meaningful:

“an epidemic occurring worldwide, or over a very wide area, crossing international boundaries and usually affecting a large number of people”

Plus, it's for sure not over here; according to ONS today about 90,000 people currently have the disease, and about 40% of the population or so remain unvaccinated and susceptible.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, UK - Office for National Statistics

Estimates for England, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland.

www.ons.gov.uk

Controlled? Suppressed? Sure.

Over? Definitely not yet IMO.

Yeah I did find the comment quite funny. cant be much of a expert saying it if they don't know the definition of Pandemic....

Covid pandemic over in Britain, say experts

Britain is no longer in a pandemic, experts have said, as new data showed the vaccination programme is reducing symptomatic Covid infections by up to 90 per cent. In the first large real-world study of the impact of vaccination on the general population, researchers found that the rollout is...

uk.yahoo.com

only link I could find that wasn't paywalled

 

[Healdplace]

Yeah I did find the comment quite funny. cant be much of a expert saying it if they don't know the definition of Pandemic....

Covid pandemic over in Britain, say experts

Britain is no longer in a pandemic, experts have said, as new data showed the vaccination programme is reducing symptomatic Covid infections by up to 90 per cent. In the first large real-world study of the impact of vaccination on the general population, researchers found that the rollout is...

uk.yahoo.com

only link I could find that wasn't paywalled

In the version I read they said it was no longer a pandemic here but endemic.


Which is equally confusing because it will still be a pandemic even if one country is totally immune and they keep it out. Like New Zealand all but did.

And it was always endemic in the UK as part of the pandemic.

I am assuming the media just went for click bait. As usual.

Plenty of scientists are jumping on the story now thankfully.

 

[Healdplace]

Wales Vaccination update:

1, 742, 273 first doses given - 14, 818 today - was 15, 083 yesterday & 16, 983 last week

653, 537 second doses given - 17, 882 today - was 13, 142 yesterday & 14, 702 last week

 

[Healdplace]

Zoe App data:

Cases 1064 - up 14 from 1050 yesterday (it has been more than double Zoe all week in real test data)

Symptomatic ongoing cases 21 , 819 - down 798 from 22, 617 yesterday.

There is little change in the regional data with Yorkshire and North West ahead of the pack as usual.

One oddity is Bury showing up as the area in the whole of the north west and one of the worst in the UK with the most ongoing cases when it is doing really well in actual cases reported day to day and was lowest in GM again yesterday with just 5 out of 163 cases in the region and from 300 in NW.

 

[ayia napa blues]

Just a thought on the pandemic being over in the UK.

We are undoubtedly in an amazing position now compared to the ongoing tragic issues in many places elsewhere but that can very easily reverse if we react like every day is VE day. Celebrated as the end because locally the war WAS over. But the war itself was not. That came months later on VJ day.

That is the messaging we should be emphasising. The more who holiday in the UK not elsewhere in 2021 the better for both the UK economy and the risk of reimportation that they clearly cannot easily prevent however many people we tell not to avoid self isolating. Short of taking everyone off a plane from Benidorm and locking them in Strangeways for the week after. Which obviously we never will.

I am surprised incentives to have a staycation are not already being given by the government.

It is easy and tempting to jump to conclusions the vaccines worked (as to a degree they clearly have) and that is that.

But we should be careful as it is unclear as yet what is the relative impact of vaccine versus lockdown. The data looks good on the balance.

However, you could argue that the vaccines eliminated flu as that has been minimal whilst we have ramped them up in the winter and all but disappeared as a deadly threat.

Unfortunately they did in Australia too in their winter (which was last Summer for us - and so long pre vaccine) - so the impact was clearly more the measures taken to avoid Covid - from washing hands more to lockdown - that tamed flu. Easy to assume misleadingly why things happen.

Not being a downer as we are in a position much of the world can only still dream about and the vaccines are a triumph. Just warning that over confidence is now a bigger threat than the virus as it is something everyone will embrace after this past year from hell.

Managing the messaging from here is crucial.

Mate no offence but am sick of hearing holiday in the UK.

£1400 we got quoted last week for 4nights in a caravan in Newquay. Nothing short of a p take .

I don't know what thw answer is tho can the travel industry really survive another dead year . Then there will be no travel

 

[west didsblue]

Mate no offence but am sick of hearing holiday in the UK.

£1400 we got quoted last week for 4nights in a caravan in Newquay. Nothing short of a p take .

I don't know what thw answer is tho can the travel industry really survive another dead year . Then there will be no travel

Why would you want to go from Ayia Napa to Newquay for your hols?

 

[Tim of the Oak]