Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Healdplace said:
Greater Manchester Cases


175 cases today - up 22 on yesterday.

And up 33 from 142 last Wednesday. Most of the entire NW week to week rise of 41




Bolton - had another poor day to stay top of the tree at 57 - that is up 13 on the day and 31 week to week. Biggest weekly increase in any GM borough in ages. Almost alone responsible for GM's bad day and the highest number here in weeks. With a rise of 20 in one day highest GM daily Pop rise in a couple of months and hoisting its Pop Score to the highest in GM In a long time. Way up top out front on its own as the Weekly Pop Score chart below will reveal.


Manchester in contrast up by just 4 to 34 and way behind Bolton though that is up 11 from last week so not that good either.

Stockport - up again - third straight day - by 4 to 18 which is up 9 week to week and highest here in over two weeks. This number was bad enough so that for first time LOST a point on Trafford after two weeks of eating into its big overall Pop Score lead.

Wigan up 7 to 15 - which is at least down 2 wk to wk.

Salford down 4 to 11 which is identical to last wk.

Trafford down 6 on 11 - another big drop of 9 wk to wk. Trafford finally made up 1 on Pop Score points to Stockport. Seem to be getting their numbers under control here hopefully.

Rochdale up 1 on 10 - which is down 2 week to week.


The other 3 boroughs managed single figures today:



Oldham up 3 to 9 on the day - also up 1 wk to wk

Tameside stays on 6 which is down 3 from last week.

And top again - despite being Bolton's neighbour:-


Bury down 6 to just 4- which is down 3 from last week






Weekly total cases:-

Bolton heading towards 300 cases in a week and well beyond Manchester now. Trafford's improvement in past few days pushes it back under 100. Bury and Tameside fighting it out for lowest weekly cases.


Bury 42, Tameside 45, Oldham 67, Stockport 76, Rochdale 77, Wigan 78, Salford 92, Trafford 98, Manchester 197, Bolton 273.
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I hope PHE work out what's driving Bolton.

Reminds me of when Kent was rising. But the numbers are so low it could be a really specific outbreak - school, workplace, place of worship etc - rather than anything more systematic.
 
Marvin said:
Independent reporting news carried by the Times. Yes I know that's strange. Anyway...

"We will have a lot to say about the booster programme soon. It’s looking really positive so far...“We think that the level of protection in the population to any variant will be so high that, by Christmas, Covid-19 should have just faded into the background like any other illness in circulation.”

And another story: Porton-down to be involved in research against new variants including vaccines
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I've seen that quote attributed to a "senior govt minister" - that sounds like someone briefing to me, right before the elections, and seems to be a crazy thing to say for any other reason without putting their own name on it.
 
GM Weekly Pop Data after today:~

Borough / Pop Today / 7 days ago / up or down wk to wk/ Testing is % of local population who have tested positive for Covid over past year.

As ever with Pop going up is bad, going down good - the higher the number the better or worse depending on direction moving. The Pop is total cases in past week versus 100,000 POPulation to even out the comparison versus size and expected cases based on numbers living there.



Bolton 95 / 55 / UP 40 Testing positive 9.2%

Trafford 42 / 46 / DOWN 4 Testing positive 7.0 %

Salford 36 / 39 / DOWN 3 Testing positive 9.0%

Rochdale 35 / 35 / LEVEL Testing positive 9.6%

Manchester 35 / 37 / DOWN 2 Testing positive 9.6%

Oldham 28 / 39 DOWN 11 Testing positive 9.8%

Stockport 26 / 23 / UP 3 Testing positive 7.2%

Wigan 24 / 24 / LEVEL Testing positive 8.9%

Bury 22 / 26 / DOWN 4 Testing positive 9.1%

Tameside 20 / 30 DOWN 10 Testing positive 8.1%



Bolton pulling far and away ahead of the rest now. Could go over 100 tomorrow. Nobody even half of its Pop Score.

Tameside goes further clear at top with half the boroughs in the 20s.

Stockport has slipped over past few days from best to climbing up the table again and Pop Score going back up.

But nobody in really serious trouble and it is all relative to the low numbers all round.
 
HOSPITAL DATA

Summary:



Better day in England and the North West though numbers went up in the other nations over the past few days and reduced the numbers of the fall of 61 in England by 20 or so. And put overall ventilators up by 2 when England alone fell by 1.

So the UK now has under 1250 in hospital and just 182 on ventilators. And England COULD go below 1000 tomorrow if it is a fairly average Thursday. Last week numbers fell by 45. They need to fall by 33 this week to take England to 999 Covid patients. We will see! It last was below 1000 on 17 September.

The NW fared the best today in the fall in patients which puts a better shine on the last week. But numbers are rising in several parts of the UK and we are in a bit of a fluid situation as to which way we are going to go.

Certainly the steady falls of the past 3 months day to day week to week are for now less assured.

Could go either way.



UK total:




Patients down to 1239 - it was 39, 248 at the peak on 18 Jan - (fall of 38, 009 in 107 days) :- lowest since 18 September

Ventilators UP to 182 it was 4077 at the peak on 24 Jan - (fall of 3895 in 101 days) : lowest since 21 September


England only:-


ADMISSIONS:-

98 Covid admissions following 92, 68, 82, 81, 89, 128, 108, in the week before.

As you see some of the lowest daily Covid admissions in England for months under 100 a day for 6 straight days. Though the latest only just.




PATIENTS:-

Patients down by 61 to 1032 v 1278 last week :- lowest since 18 September

Peak was 34, 336 on 18 Jan (fall 33, 304 in 107 days)

Ventilators: down 1 to 161 v 188 last week :- lowest since 21 September

Peak was 3736 on 24 Jan (fall 3575 in 101 days)



Regions:


Patient // Ventilators // change in past day to today and v last week


East down 2 to 90 v 128 // down 1 to 7 v 15

London down 8 to 284 v 353 // down 4 to 65 v 78

Midlands down 13 to 201 v 241// UP 3 to 28 v 31

NE & Yorks down 11 to 160 v 194 // UP 2 to 24 v 23

North West down 25 to 178 v 196 // Stays at 24 v 26

South East UP 4 to 86 v 114 // Stays at 9 v 12

South West down 6 to 33 v 52 // down 1 to 4 v 3
 
These stats need to factor in that there are about 1300 hospitals in England and Wales. So that's averages out as one covid patient per hospital ? 182 people on ventilators in this number of hospitals.
 
lunebleu said:
These stats need to factor in that there are about 1300 hospitals in England and Wales. So that's averages out as one covid patient per hospital ? 182 people on ventilators in this number of hospitals.
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There won’t 1,300 hospitals with ICUs. The figures are low anyway.
 
The Indian epidemic viewed through worldometer looks like it is peaking. We do not know the actual new cases and deaths but that is the same for every country. India has been less affected in terms of its overall population than Western nations but what was odd about India is that they were barely affected at all initially, but then they experienced a sudden surge which suggests a change in the virus and/or a change in behaviour.
 
Marvin said:
The Indian epidemic viewed through worldometer looks like it is peaking. We do not know the actual new cases and deaths but that is the same for every country. India has been less affected in terms of its overall population than Western nations but what was odd about India is that they were barely affected at all initially, but then they experienced a sudden surge which suggests a change in the virus and/or a change in behaviour.
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Indian commentators are saying most cases in India are probably not going on the official figures so it’s very difficult to do international comparisons. Some Indian states were very vigilant during the early days of the pandemic that might have helped them to manage the risk. The lacks approach over recent months has helped to spread the virus.
 
True_Blue69 said:
I don’t think that’s 1300 in ICU, isn’t it just 1300 in hospital that have tested positive for covid? Might not even be in because of covid if I understand it right.
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I teaf there’s about 1,250 hospitals (including private sector) across the U.K. it would probably be better if the hospital cases were more concentrated so that the vast majority of services could be gearing up to reestablishing the full range of healthcare services. A few months ago health service leaders were forecasting August for a return of comprehensive healthcare so hopefully lots of progress is being made.

The road map is working and if we stay vigilant then we can all look forward to getting back to closer to normality soon. Last night I got in another game of 5 a side and downed a couple of pints of Guinness afterwards. Life’s what you make it.
 
grunge said:


US backing removal of IP on Covid vaccines. shares in the medical companies making them plummit.

if this goes ahead its an amazing move by the USA.
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Cannot see it making a big difference, producing vaccine isn't like baking a cake. You don't just go on the Internet for a recipe. Stages in production will be closely guarded IP and any plant producing will have to have all its processes and product trialed, tested and then go through approval process.
 
True_Blue69 said:
I don’t think that’s 1300 in ICU, isn’t it just 1300 in hospital that have tested positive for covid? Might not even be in because of covid if I understand it right.
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No, there are nowhere near 1300 people in icus in the UK. These are literally patients in hospital who have tested positive for Covid. And there are only around 1250 as of yesterday in total.

Of the 1032 in England just 161 of them are on icu equipped ventilator beds.

Some of them quite likely are really in hospital because of other conditions that may or may not have been exacerbated by Covid. Or so their oxygen levels can be monitored.

Most admissions also only stay a day or two. Hence why I post the admissions per day from England as this gives a maximum number to the increase - though in practice more will be going home than coming in right now. But that can change day to day and anyone who has been in hospital for anything will know they tend to release those they can pre weekend and see some come in on Mondays who have waited the weekend to go to A & E. Hence midweek tends to be the best guide to the 'normal' picture.

The Scottish data gives very detailed numbers on hospital patients.

As of yesterday there were 69 people in total in every hospital in Scotland with Covid.

That is out of 5.5 MILLION people living there. That is just 12 out of every million.

Of these 13 are in ICUs in beds that HAVE ventilation options but are not necessarily on a ventilator. Just ready in case needed. There is spare capacity now at such low levels.

8 of those 69 patients have been in icu for more than 28 days.

There are 22 in total in icu from all the nations bar England and 161 in England. Though there will be a few more in ICUs without ventilated beds under observation.

So at most two or three hundred are in icu with Covid in the UK right now.

You can see why so few people are dying of Covid now. The vast majority who do will be in icu. And only a modest percentage of those there will do - especially now we are not swamped with as we were in January thousands on ventilators with the NHS inevitably struggling to cope.

So if the maximum number potentially likely to die is about 200 in next week or so the true numbers are going to be as low as we are seeing. Which right now barely tops 100 in a week. From all settings - not just in hospital.
 
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With the masks thing, I'm amazed how many kids wear them. When I pick my boy up from school as I see loads wearing them.
It's more the gullible 'freedom fighter' adults who don't. Idiots walking into supermarkets without them....oh so very fucking brave.
 
Pure speculation, but my guess would be that the US has no intention of this ever happening - and for the reasons outlined by @Blue Llama it may be of limited benefit anyway.

But it gives them leverage against the pharma companies to enable supply chain and pricing for much wider access than current plans are: "License your tech to India yourselves and negotiate reasonable pricing or we'll void your patents". Note that AZ has already done this.

Specifically on Pfizer and Moderna, the need for frozen supply chains for those vaccines makes them problematic for the developing world anyway.
 
Blue Llama said:
Cannot see it making a big difference, producing vaccine isn't like baking a cake. You don't just go on the Internet for a recipe. Stages in production will be closely guarded IP and any plant producing will have to have all its processes and product trialed, tested and then go through approval process.
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there are plants in India that can churn this stuff out by the metric ton, main reason the dont sell them in India its self is cost. the pfizer one cost about $30 a shot which is about 2 weeks wages for most people in India.

if it means they can churn this out for a tiny fraction of the cost then its a bonus for them. shipping is another matter mind you.

Main concern comes from the fact that would these companies do a rapid vaccine for the next pandemic now...
 
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