Coronavirus (2021) thread

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roubaixtuesday said:
I agree it's not the same same as January, but hospitalisations are following the same trend (exponential growth, same doubling time but with a lag) as cases now. Perhaps that will change. Hopefully it will as more vaccinations roll out.

It's around half the number of hospitalisations per case as January - as per the posted graph above. It's disappointing that ration isn't lower.

I agree that there seems to be growing evidence that hospital stays and severity are improved, which should translate to fewer inpatients relatively than hospitalisations. But we would still expect that also to increase proportionally to cases (why wouldn't it?), again hopefully falling as further vaccinations are rolled out.
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backtracking I see. Now you've just got to see that the exponential growth is due to looking at areas with high unvaxxed over 50s people which won't happen in many other parts of the UK and I think we're there
 
BlueAnorak said:
8 on 10 English citizens now have Covid antibodies. That is 5% away from herd immunity for the Delta variant (natural R0 of 6 and a bit).
Yes I know it varies dramatically across the age cohorts but even so it is good news.
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It's 80% of adults, not all citizens, so we're probably further from herd immunity than that - schoolchildren are driving the current wave.

And herd immunity would probably require double vaccines, and maybe half of that 80% is people with only one vaccine?

But yes, it's very good news. It also means that every vaccine gets us proportionally a bigger step towards herd immunity, so vaccinating now makes a much bigger impact to R than it did it January.
 
Office rumours going around now (I appreciate they aren't necessarily helpful).

Apparently, GM and Lancashire are set to go into lockdown again in a return to localised lockdowns. Cafes, Bars, Restaurants etc all set to be closed, children to receive lesson from home etc.
 
From the BBC
Residents in north-west England have welcomed extra help to tackle a rise in the Delta variant.

Similar tactics to those successfully used in Bolton will be implemented across the whole of Greater Manchester and parts of Lancashire, including military support and supervised in-school testing.


Jess Walmsley, 20, a student at the University of Manchester, said she queued for six hours to get her first Covid vaccination dose along with many of her friends.


Anyone know where 20 year olds are getting vaccinated? My son is 20,
 
artfuldodger said:
From the BBC
Residents in north-west England have welcomed extra help to tackle a rise in the Delta variant.

Similar tactics to those successfully used in Bolton will be implemented across the whole of Greater Manchester and parts of Lancashire, including military support and supervised in-school testing.


Jess Walmsley, 20, a student at the University of Manchester, said she queued for six hours to get her first Covid vaccination dose along with many of her friends.


Anyone know where 20 year olds are getting vaccinated? My son is 20,
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Could be the drop in centers that are popping up. I think the MEN are reporting where. 18+ can go. Usually limited to set post codes.
 
Manchester33 said:
Office rumours going around now (I appreciate they aren't necessarily helpful).

Apparently, GM and Lancashire are set to go into lockdown again in a return to localised lockdowns. Cafes, Bars, Restaurants etc all set to be closed, children to receive lesson from home etc.
Click to expand...
its going to kick right off
 
Manchester33 said:
Office rumours going around now (I appreciate they aren't necessarily helpful).

Apparently, GM and Lancashire are set to go into lockdown again in a return to localised lockdowns. Cafes, Bars, Restaurants etc all set to be closed, children to receive lesson from home etc.
Click to expand...
Hopefully bollocks (office rumours kind of tells its own story!) as there’s nothing in the data to suggest taking such extreme measures. Surge testing and surge vaccinations as they did in Bolton are surely the way to go. Do that and we can get on top of it in a few weeks, just as they did in Bolton.
 
Manchester33 said:
Office rumours going around now (I appreciate they aren't necessarily helpful).

Apparently, GM and Lancashire are set to go into lockdown again in a return to localised lockdowns. Cafes, Bars, Restaurants etc all set to be closed, children to receive lesson from home etc.
Click to expand...
If they do, its a complete u turn from this morning.


We've been hearing more from Communities Secretary Robert Jenrick who says there are no plans to return to last year's regional tiered approach to coronavirus restrictions.

He tells BBC Radio 4's Today programme the "best way forward" is replicating the targeted action in Bolton.

Jenrick says: "We don't have any plan to return to the regional or the tiered approach that we saw last autumn. "What we want to do is provide as much support as we possibly can to a local community and to work as closely as we can with the local leaders.

"We have seen in Bolton that that approach has worked. It did require a lot of effort and Bolton Council has been brilliant, the NHS there, local people above all have been extremely helpful and effective in combating it.
 
Manchester33 said:
Office rumours going around now (I appreciate they aren't necessarily helpful).

Apparently, GM and Lancashire are set to go into lockdown again in a return to localised lockdowns. Cafes, Bars, Restaurants etc all set to be closed, children to receive lesson from home etc.
Click to expand...

feel sorry for you guys as it's completely unnecessary
 
artfuldodger said:
If they do, its a complete u turn from this morning.


We've been hearing more from Communities Secretary Robert Jenrick who says there are no plans to return to last year's regional tiered approach to coronavirus restrictions.

He tells BBC Radio 4's Today programme the "best way forward" is replicating the targeted action in Bolton.

Jenrick says: "We don't have any plan to return to the regional or the tiered approach that we saw last autumn. "What we want to do is provide as much support as we possibly can to a local community and to work as closely as we can with the local leaders.

"We have seen in Bolton that that approach has worked. It did require a lot of effort and Bolton Council has been brilliant, the NHS there, local people above all have been extremely helpful and effective in combating it.
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Like thats never happened before.... Oh wait a minute.... :)

although odds are if they do anything it will be limiting mingling of households rather than anything else.
 
7540 cases - 6 deaths

That is from only 715 K tests too.

Big positivity rise as well as biggest daily cases rise.
 
M18CTID said:
Hopefully bollocks (office rumours kind of tells its own story!) as there’s nothing in the data to suggest taking such extreme measures. Surge testing and surge vaccinations as they did in Bolton are surely the way to go. Do that and we can get on top of it in a few weeks, just as they did in Bolton.
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Yes hopefully just bollocks.

I'm worried that the surge testing is going to lead to way more cases coming to light, which the government will use as an excuse to enforce restrictions.

The surge vaccinations are a lot more promising.
 
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