Coronavirus (2021) thread

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johnnymarrsbarres said:
Neil Ferguson is one of the few people who have been more right than wrong throughout.

And like I said, for your own mental health, get the fuck off the internet mate.
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Ferguson has come across abit of a cock in all this, his reputation took a hammering,

shagging someone whilst in lockdown, lol wasn't his wife

I would also state he has got more wrong than right tbh.
 
Healdplace said:
What happens in the NW is crucial because it was the first region to be dominated by this variant and will be the template for what will still happen elsewhere in coming weeks even if we do not open up any more at all. People are still travelling and will do so regardless.

So if it can be brought down here without rising much from where we are now then that will be a good sign we can manage this elsewhere by rapid intervention locally. Which seems the strategy.

This variant is now unstoppable. It is really just a balance point between it taking over and our immunity levels rising via catching it and vaccination completion that matters. If we get through these coming weeks and are heading out of it with miminal impact on the NHS we will be OK.

And next time a variant turns up in the world we HAVE to learn to stop travel proactively not retrospecively.

Because more variants will arrive until we vaccinate the entire world which this weekend's summit surely has to get moving immediately.

They should tell the delegates to agree something or they will all be flown to Greater Manchester and keep meeting here in the thick of it until they see why vaccinating the world is urgent and essential and in their hands to put into full scale operation now.
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Some people on here seem to be following the Tory, or Labour line but I don't see any political solutions to what is a biophysical problem of adaptive virus vs adaptive immunity. Had we been dealing with just the Wuhan virus it would be history by now, indeed it is history.
 
johnnymarrsbarres said:
Neil Ferguson is one of the few people who have been more right than wrong throughout.

And like I said, for your own mental health, get the fuck off the internet mate.
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No he hasn't
He's got things in the past horribly wrong, see below:

Foot & Mouth: He predicted 150,000 deaths, reality nowhere near
BSE: He predicted 50,000, reality nowhere near
Bird flu: He predicted 150,000, reality nowhere near
Swine Flu: He predicted 65,000, reality nowhere near
CV19: He has predicted 500,000 deaths, again he will be horribly wrong

Plus this was a man that visited his girlfriend in May 2020 whilst preaching to everyone to stay indoors and comply with the rules.
The real scandal is why do we continue to listen to him and why is he getting air time?
 
Consensus seems to be growing that there's a 'right amount' of delay to stage 4 reopening.

Open to soon, and hospitals become overwhelmed too quickly, people who require care for other illnesses or treatments don't get a bed.

BUT

Hold back on reopening by too much, and you risk a late autumn/winter wave which also comes with its own consequences when other illnesses are doing the rounds, again hospitals become overwhelmed by too many patients in too short a time frame.

So a likely option seems to be to delay step 4, but not by too much. 4-6 weeks would take us up to the school holidays (UK wide, I'm aware Scotland schools stop earlier), be helpful to get a few million more people vaccinated and hopefully contain that wave of admissions and patients in beds as much as possible.

It's far from ideal and will be certain to anger both sides, but it might just be the 'least worst' option available.
 
BLUEMATT23 said:
No he hasn't
He's got things in the past horribly wrong, see below:

Foot & Mouth: He predicted 150,000 deaths, reality nowhere near
BSE: He predicted 50,000, reality nowhere near
Bird flu: He predicted 150,000, reality nowhere near
Swine Flu: He predicted 65,000, reality nowhere near
CV19: He has predicted 500,000 deaths, again he will be horribly wrong

Plus this was a man that visited his girlfriend in May 2020 whilst preaching to everyone to stay indoors and comply with the rules.
The real scandal is why do we continue to listen to him and why is he getting air time?
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I used to think you were paranoid and depressed but now it's clear you're just a bit of a simpleton and you're getting blocked.

Those figures are bollocks, look them up fact check sites rather than getting your news from Facebook groups ffs.
 
BLUEMATT23 said:
No he hasn't
He's got things in the past horribly wrong, see below:

Foot & Mouth: He predicted 150,000 deaths, reality nowhere near
BSE: He predicted 50,000, reality nowhere near
Bird flu: He predicted 150,000, reality nowhere near
Swine Flu: He predicted 65,000, reality nowhere near
CV19: He has predicted 500,000 deaths, again he will be horribly wrong

Plus this was a man that visited his girlfriend in May 2020 whilst preaching to everyone to stay indoors and comply with the rules.
The real scandal is why do we continue to listen to him and why is he getting air time?
Click to expand...

I don't know why you're obsessed with Ferguson.

If he was out on a limb from other scientists you might have a point but he's not.
 
ayrshire_blue said:
Consensus seems to be growing that there's a 'right amount' of delay to stage 4 reopening.

Open to soon, and hospitals become overwhelmed too quickly, people who require care for other illnesses or treatments don't get a bed.

BUT

Hold back on reopening by too much, and you risk a late autumn/winter wave which also comes with its own consequences when other illnesses are doing the rounds, again hospitals become overwhelmed by too many patients in too short a time frame.

So a likely option seems to be to delay step 4, but not by too much. 4-6 weeks would take us up to the school holidays (UK wide, I'm aware Scotland schools stop earlier), be helpful to get a few million more people vaccinated and hopefully contain that wave of admissions and patients in beds as much as possible.

It's far from ideal and will be certain to anger both sides, but it might just be the 'least worst' option available.
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it doesn’t have to be a fully open up on the 21 does it? I am sure they can release some more and delay some more a couple of weeks and hopefully everyone will Be happy.

as always it will end up some sort of fudge compromise, like you don’t have to wear a face mask if you are eating a scotch egg.
 
England hospital deaths:

6 with 1 from NW - This was in Liverpool

Other regions 1 East 3 London 1 South East - Midlands, NE & Yorkshire and South West all 0

Last wk 12 with 3 NW wk before 9 with 2 and wk before 6 with 0.


There are some hints that deaths here have flattened off again. Certainly no hint of any serious increase.


Last 5 weeks weekly totals at 5 days from May 2 to Jun 5 are

Wk 1 (May 2 - May 8) 54

Wk 2 32

Wk 3 27

Wk 4 38

Wk 5 (May 30 - Jun 5) 37


Nothing here to be concerned over averaging aound 4 / 5 a day now for last 4 weeks

The days coming up are:-

Jun 6 at 4 days is on 6

Jun 5 at 3 days is on 2

Jun 6 at 2 days is on 5

Jun 9 at 0 after 1 day.
 
England hospital deaths: Age ranges

3 of the 6 were aged 40 - 59. 1 was aged 60 - 79 and 2 aged 80 PLUS

Again the trend continues that we are getting lower deaths and a small number sub aged 60 but a higher proportion (been 50% or above for last couple of days) because the upper age range have fallen most.

Again this supports the efficay of the vaccines given its age depedent distribution.
 
johnnymarrsbarres said:
I used to think you were paranoid and depressed but now it's clear you're just a bit of a simpleton and you're getting blocked.

Those figures are bollocks, look them up fact check sites rather than getting your news from Facebook groups ffs.
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It's the same stuff we see with all these predictions.

"This is the worst case scenario that could happen if we don't take these key steps I've outlined"

"Christ that's awful, lets take these steps immediately"

"Good news the steps we took stopped this getting out of control"

"You said X would die and it was only Y, how could you be so wrong!!!"
 
Northern Ireland data:

0 deaths - was 0 last week

109 cases - waa 80 last week

4% positivity - was 3.9% last week

2 Care Home outbreaks - up 1 on yesterday - same as last week

Rolling 7 day cases total 604 - up fro 585 yesterday and 488 last week

19 patients - up 1 on day and 2 on last week.

0 ventilated - same as yesterday and last week


AGE RANGES OF 603 cases ( 1 not age identified)

0 - 19 (213) 35.3%

20 - 39 (266) 44. 1%

40 - 59 (94) 15.6%

60 - 79 (26) 4.3%

80 + (4) 0,7%


This split goes even further towards the younger ages once again.

79.4% nearly 4 in 5 are under 40

Only 5% one in 20 are over 60.

And only just over 20% - one in 5 - are over 40.

Clear evidence of why this wave has been significantly changed by the age split of the vaccinated
 
Healdplace said:
Scotland data

1 death - was 4 last week

735 cases - was 835 last week

2.8% positivity - was 2.8% last week

124 patients - up 3 on yesterday & 14 on last week

14 ventilted - same as yesterday - was 8 last week


Some hints of possible stability here
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Glasgow, Edinburgh and other central belt areas both down day to day and (slightly) week to week.
 
BLUEMATT23 said:
No he hasn't
He's got things in the past horribly wrong, see below:

Foot & Mouth: He predicted 150,000 deaths, reality nowhere near
BSE: He predicted 50,000, reality nowhere near
Bird flu: He predicted 150,000, reality nowhere near
Swine Flu: He predicted 65,000, reality nowhere near
CV19: He has predicted 500,000 deaths, again he will be horribly wrong

Plus this was a man that visited his girlfriend in May 2020 whilst preaching to everyone to stay indoors and comply with the rules.
The real scandal is why do we continue to listen to him and why is he getting air time?
Click to expand...

Lol, Facebook quote even down to the "the real scandal" part.

As has been stated a million times before, a worst case scenario is not a prediction. his BSE modelling was a range from 50 - 50k for example.

to be honest I think your just on the wind up now.

theferret.scot

Fact check: claim about Neil Ferguson’s Covid-19 predictions

[sc name=”FFS”] Among those who are sceptical about the impact of Covid-19, scientists advising the government on policy have become a target of criticism. One of the more high-profile people to face scrutiny is Professor Neil Ferguson, a mathematical epidemiologist from Imperial College...
theferret.scot theferret.scot

1623334427404.png
 
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