Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Boris been on the piss all day. 19th July it is. Let's get everybody jabbed. On we go!
 
Greater Manchester

Weekly total cases:-




Tameside 394, Oldham 460, Trafford 488, Rochdale 498, Bury 562, Stockport 662, Wigan 820, Bolton 843, Salford 876, Manchester 1822.



Manchester now more than double Bolton and Salford overtook Bolton's weekly number today as well. With Bolton now 1002 behind Manchester. Wigan not much further behind and may even overtake Bolton tomorrow.

Stockport's good few days sees it fall back a bit with Bury now closing in after a run of three figure cases.


Only Tameside sub 400 still. And likely only for a day or so more.
 
ctwrd said:
Numbers that show we must continue this lockdown (1)… oh…
Hang on the wokey wokey leftwaffe representatives on here (2) say hospitalisations are set to rocket (3)
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1. We have not been in lockdown since 7th March (factually, we’ve never actually had a proper lockdown at any point during the pandemic!)

2. What on Earth is that dross?

3. Hospitalisations have gone up 65% in the North West in the last week, with only 45% of the population having both jabs.
“Our figures show that a four week delay now will reduce the peak of this surge by 30-50%” Patrick Valance
 
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Len Rum said:
So by July 19th Europe will be close to UK on vaccines but will have had less restrictions over the next five weeks?
Bit like the tortoise and the hare!
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Still masks everywhere and bans on mass gatherings isn't it? Pretty much the same as here?
 
Any one got a link to the official government guidelines for these changes?

got a communion due and wondering how that’s gonna be hit.
 
20210614_202023.png

I'm a bit perplexed that the plan is to 'accelerate' the vaccine programme over the next 4 weeks but then back that up with these sort of numbers in their projection. They mark a slow down from where we are now rollout wise, definitely not an acceleration.

For a few weeks I've thought something isn't quite right with vaccine figures, something doesn't add up whether it's supply issues or what, but I think a bit of transparency wouldn't do any harm at this stage.
 
kevin horlocks wand said:
that’s not a great analogy . People die on roads every day in the uk.

if I was put in charge of stopping road deaths and that was my sole focus I would say everyone in the uk cannot drive and nobody can use the roads.

it would stop road deaths and my job would be done but it would not be a proportionate response to that risk for the wider society

At the moment we have had a risk free, zero case Covid response to the pandemic With everything being about controlling Covid.

despite all vulnerable to Covid who took the jab request taking it Up. Yet despite that it seems to me the main response seems to be additional mandatory social control measures.

come September October we will be back to full lockdown For the winter.
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It is a fair analogy I believe. We're not living in a risk free zero case covid response right now, so I don't know what you're getting at.
 
ayrshire_blue said:
View attachment 19130

I'm a bit perplexed that the plan is to 'accelerate' the vaccine programme over the next 4 weeks but then back that up with these sort of numbers in their projection. They mark a slow down from where we are now rollout wise, definitely not an acceleration.

For a few weeks I've thought something isn't quite right with vaccine figures, something doesn't add up whether it's supply issues or what, but I think a bit of transparency wouldn't do any harm at this stage.
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I doubt the shower in charge at the moment know the meaning of the word transparency.
 
worsleyweb said:
fuck all you could say couid hurt me but I just would hate to live with your negativeness all the time and what you say is bollox. You think Spain will catch us up on vaccines?
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The only countries in Europe anywhere near us (44%) for two doses are Hungary (43%) and Serbia (34%).

Italy, Germany, Spain and France are at 23%, 25%, 26% and 21% respectively

Only Italy’s trajectory is any steeper than ours
3A099478-C8CC-4767-9F3E-BAF34AF13730.jpg

I need to charge my phone!
 
ayrshire_blue said:
It is a fair analogy I believe. We're not living in a risk free zero case covid response right now, so I don't know what you're getting at.
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You said seatbelts work , yet people die on the roads every day.

despite all the vulnerable all being offered vaccines , “wearing seat belts” we still have strong social control measures .

witty has already said cases will be higher on 19 July , do you think he is then going to advise release lockdown measures then. Is he fuck.

his job is to control Covid deaths . Period. Come autumn he will be saying we need a full lockdown again because cold weather/ flu / people inside/ not everyone taken up the jab etc etc. His sole focus is Covid who can blame him for advising that. I would.

like I say if I was put in charge of stopping road deaths I would ban cars . Job done .

at some stage we have to get on with our lives and live with the risk As individuals.

7 deaths today. single figures for sometime .
 
UK carrying out just over 900k tests on June 9th. With 6.5k positive.
More than our closest neighbours by a country mile. Little wonder our cases appear to be ahead of theirs.
By comparison, France has done 295k tests with 4.7k positive.
ourworldindata.org

COVID-19: Daily tests vs. daily new confirmed cases

7-day rolling average. Comparisons across countries are affected by differences in testing policies and reporting methods.
ourworldindata.org ourworldindata.org
 
GM Weekly Pop Data after today:~

Borough / Pop Today / 7 days ago / up or down wk to wk/ Testing is % of local population who have tested positive for Covid over past year.

As ever with Pop going up is bad, going down good - the higher the number the better or worse depending on direction moving. The Pop is total cases in past week versus 100,000 POPulation to even out the comparison versus size and expected cases based on numbers living there.


Salford 338 / 237 / UP 101 Testing positive 9.8%

Manchester 329 / 227 / UP 102 Testing positive 10.5%

Bury 294 / 201 / UP 93 Testing positive 9.8%

Bolton 293/ 314 / DOWN 21 Testing positive 11.1%

Wigan 250 / 164 / UP 86 Testing positive 9.5%

Stockport 226 / 199 / UP 27 Testing positive 7.8%

Rochdale 224 / 148 / UP 76 Testing positive 10.2 %

Trafford 205 / 158 / UP 47 Testing positive 7.6%

Oldham 194 / 101 / UP 93 Testing positive 10.2%

Tameside 174 / 104 / UP 70 Testing positive 8.6%


Salford back on top with Manchester and Bury now also overtaking Bolton, the latter just today. Putting it now as fourth highest Pop Score in GM when it was highest in the UK 3 weeks ago.

Wigan climbing above Stockport which fell again today and is looking more stable with now easily the lowest POP rise over the past 7 days and Bolton still the only one with a POP fall wkto wk. Though it is a decreasing number as Bolton seems to have plateaued around 100 cases a day.

Trafford made it up into the 200s. Though Oldham is close to joining it leaving only Tameside not imminently at risk of going there too,
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Cases currently doubling every 10-14 days or so.

Hospitalisations following suit.

150 daily admissions now.

Next.
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You saying it’s doubling every 10-14 days and Whitty using ‘exponential’ twice in his presentation suggest that by July 19th we will be up to c60000 cases per day and 1200 daily admissions. It’ll be interesting to see this modelling in action real world case study.
 
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