Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Weird shit this.

18 year old son picks it up at the minihad , we isolate .
1 week later , wife picks it up , we carry on isolating.
Guess what , 1 week later Dad picks it up.

fully 2 weeks later , 2nd jab on hold , again.

WTF
 
I do not get this at all, That prediction of a wave has to be a worst case scenario if the virus evolves and evades the vaccine. Not any kind of extrapolation from what we know now and are seeing now.

At the current rate with which people are dying we would need multiple times as many cases daily as we were getting in January to get close to matching the hundreds of deaths a day we were getting then.

If they are seriously predicting 200.000 cases a day - say - for the 4% who the data says might still be hospitalisd after being vaccinated then why was that not made clear? It would have done the trick in making people respect the decision and take seriously the precautions.

I do not see how those figures remotely stack up against the vaccine data as of now or what we have seen from the Indian vatiant doing its worst in Bolton and having produced hospitalisations in the dozens not even the hundreds and deaths in single figures.

And if they really think we are facing a wave of hundreds of thousads of cases a day we would surely be in a proper lockdown not half way to being fully open.

What am I missing?
 
ayrshire_blue said:
This page stuck out to me with the sheer number of admissions they expect in fully vaccinated 50-79 year olds. Especially as the note at the top says this is the central of 3 projections, with Imperial College estimating even a slightly higher % will be from that category.

View attachment 19144
Click to expand...
I particularly liked the modelling by Warwick which suggests even without step 4, infections will be at 100000 a day by June 21st. A week to see how accurate some of this stuff really is, I suppose.
Mind you, given every modelled scenario, after step 3 was taken, proved to be hopelessly wrong with even their ’best case scenarios’ being worse than what the actual was, I won’t be betting on there being 100000 positive tests declared next Monday…..
 
Healdplace said:
I do not get this at all, That prediction of a wave has to be a worst case scenario if the virus evolves and evades the vaccine. Not any kind of extrapolation from what we know now and are seeing now.

At the current rate with which people are dying we would need multiple times as many cases daily as we were getting in January to get close to matching the hundreds of deaths a day we were getting then.

If they are seriously predicting 200.000 cases a day - say - for the 4% who the data says might still be hospitalisd after being vaccinated then why was that not made clear? It would have done the trick in making people respect the decision and take seriously the precautions.

I do not see how those figures remotely stack up against the vaccine data as of now or what we have seen from the Indian vatiant doing its worst in Bolton and having produced hospitalisations in the dozens not even the hundreds and deaths in single figures.

And if they really think we are facing a wave of hundreds of thousads of cases a day we would surely be in a proper lockdown not half way to being fully open.

What am I missing?
Click to expand...
You’re not missing anything. Those graphs and the accompanying commentary are obviously not aimed at people who’ll actually try to look at them critically, i just can’t work out why?
 
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