Coronavirus (2021) thread

[BlueAnorak]

Boris is trying to pass this as a win for the wedding industry, it simply isn't!

I can have my full guestlist at my wedding now, which is great. But they can't fucking do anything after they arrive! It's a load of fear-mongering bollocks at this point.

Get the dancing outside.

 

[Healdplace]

England hospital deaths:

There are now slight but increasing signs that deaths are edging up here. Only very tiny signs right now. And still very low. But this may be the start of an uptick.

We are close to having our first day with double figure deaths ascribed to it. The last for now is 26 May when there were 13. Jun 10 after 5 days is now on 9. And the two days coming up behind it lready have more deaths than the two previous weeks for the same day did.

16 deaths with 4 from NW

Last week was 12 with 4. 16 is the most on a Tuesday since early May. THough Tuesdays are a catch up day from weekends so can be one of the highest.

However, in mitigation 2 of the 16 today are from 2020. The others though are the past week.

The 4 from the NW are one each from Bolton, Manchester, Wigan and Southport.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Isolation question.

If your doing your 10 day exposure isolation, if you have a PRC test and it comes back negative can you skip the rest of the isolation period?

a mate just had a PCR test and its said on the result he no longer has to isolate.

Yes. A negarive PCR test overrides a +ve Lateral Flow test. Unless of course there are others in your house isolating due to their tests.

 

[Blue Llama]

So what's the point, we really can't control it no matter what.

Everyone live your life, get vaccined, get fit, eat healthy, but at some point you will get covid

All you can do in the meantime is get as healthy as possible, lose weight and be in the best shape for when you catch it.

No point in lockdowns now, it doesn't stop it

Lockdown does stop Covid, you only need to look at countries with a culture of respect for their fellow citizens. Problem here is we still have too many dickheads who don't see why they should follow the rules. Or just too thick to remember them. Case in point, first thing this morning I was in a waiting room with the usual common Covid signs and about 30 chairs. Just me and another bloke, in comes a third person and sits in the chair next to me. Some people deserve to catch it.

 

[uwe rosler 28]

What number are you referring to here and where?

I have certainly not seen such a big fall in hospital data in a couple of weeks. It is slowly but surely going the other way.

People in England on ventilators rose by 24 to 170 over the past weekend alone. It was 110 two weeks ago.

That is a more than 50% increase in 2 weeks.

This is a long way from the 3736 in January at the peak but it is unquestionably rising and that rise escalated last week from the week before.

Same with patient numbers.

With the North West being the main reason for both rises.

The region where the variant first appeared and has had lomg enough to seed these hospital rises.

Numbers we are yet to see in other regions but are all but certain to follow in the coming month.

I post the numbers from hospital every day in here around early evening.

We will almost certainly get nowhere near those January numbers but with 6 other England regions yet to show any uptick like the NW has post Delta colonising them it remains unclear how far up we could go in coning weeks as this spreads. Which it undeniably is doing.

On the worldometers it says uk has 161 in a critical/serious condition

 

[Healdplace]

Northern Ireland data:

0 deaths - was 0 last week

115 cases - was 81 last week

5,2% positivity - was 5.0% last week

2 care home outbreaks - same as yesterday - was 1 last week

7 day rolling cases 722 - was 694 yesterday & 546 last week.

15 patients - same as yesterday and last week

0 ventilted - same as yesterday and last week.


AGE RANGES OF 722 TESTING POSITIVE IN PAST WEEK

0 - 19 (236) 32.7%

20 - 39 (333) 46.1%

40 - 59 (124) 17.2%

60 - 79 (26) 3.6%

80 PLUS (3) 0.4%


The over 60s fall further to just one in 25 of all testing positive.

The biggest rise though is in the 40 - 59 age group as the numbers of school age notably fell a bit and were replaced by the middle age group.

Though still 78.8% of the cases are under 40.

 

[grunge]

Yes. A negarive PCR test overrides a +ve Lateral Flow test. Unless of course there are others in your house isolating due to their tests.

This is relating to contact with someone infected. went to a friends at the weekend and there lad got a positive Monday morning. so got the call to isolate. the link artfuldodger posted says no go on any tests to get past that as it can take the 10 days to become positive.

Ahh well. makes perfect sense that it wouldn't. it was just the comment by another mate saying the PCR tests allowed isolation to end. will just be in terms of overriding a Lateral flow test.

 

[Manchester33]

Lockdown does stop Covid, you only need to look at countries with a culture of respect for their fellow citizens. Problem here is we still have too many dickheads who don't see why they should follow the rules. Or just too thick to remember them. Case in point, first thing this morning I was in a waiting room with the usual common Covid signs and about 30 chairs. Just me and another bloke, in comes a third person and sits in the chair next to me. Some people deserve to catch it.

I hate it when people do this. They come and piss at the urinal next to you, or park their car next to yours when there's plenty of space elsewhere.

Very weird behaviour and even moreso with the backdrop of a pandemic.

 

[Manc Born & Bred]

Gonna be honest. I have zero intention of telling anyone that they can't dance or sing at our wedding. It'll be late August. Everyone there will be jabbed up. I presume (and hope) those rules will be gone by then, but either way it can't pretend I'll be sticking to them.

Brilliant, can't wait to attend with everyone else from here - I assume this was an open invite?

 

[Healdplace]

On the worldometers it says uk has 161 in a critical/serious condition

Thank you. No idea where it gets that number from but there are 189 people with Covid on ventilators in the UK as of last night.

May have been 161 last week at some point as numbers at present are going up daily.

 

[splinter]

I hate it when people do this. They come and piss at the urinal next to you, or park their car next to yours when there's plenty of space elsewhere.

Very weird behaviour and even moreso with the backdrop of a pandemic.

I always move ..and I avoid urinals whenever possible;)

 

[Alan Harper's Tash]

I always move ..and I avoid urinals whenever possible;)

So you’re the sink pisser…

 

[Healdplace]

So todays UK deaths with out of hospital England to add are 18 - though the 2 from 2020 might get deducted.

Last week it was 12 which became 13 on all settings.

18 on 3 June is the highest since 20 on 11 May.

Three nations cases today are 1187 - last week it was 798

 

[Resurrection Joe...]

I always move ..and I avoid urinals whenever possible;)

Harder to hit when you're moving...i'll give you that.

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

I *think* (will stand corrected here) that their 100,000 is the total cases per day they expect in the country, not just the one's which are picked up from tests, if that makes sense?

Eg perhaps 30,000 positive tests but believe another 70,000 will become infected on that day, in a sort of Zoe estimate. (30k still sounds too high btw, just used that figure to try and clarify).

Having re-looked at it it does seem that the Warwick model is reflecting what they think will be the ‘actual daily infections’ as opposed to the positive tests, which I suppose will be confirmed or not by the ONS data in July. They think we’re already at about 50000, so will be interesting to see.

Not only that, but the modelling for the next 2 weeks should be the 2 that are most interesting given that they are models that assume we did step 4 next Monday, which we obviously aren’t now doing, but any predicated deaths and hospitalisations will, of course, already be ‘baked in’ as Patrick Vallance is fond of saying.

By way of interest, the Warwick team produced models in February which was used by the government to plan roadmap, had between 54,000 and 60,000 deaths from 8-Mar for the unlock option we followed.
Since 8-Mar there have actually been 2,297 deaths. The new model says there will be about 14,500 from June to end of October, which will likely prove to be just as reliable estimate…………

 

[splinter]

So you’re the sink pisser…

I think we've all been there ;)

 

[ayrshire_blue]

By way of interest, the Warwick team produced models in February which was used by the government to plan roadmap, had between 54,000 and 60,000 deaths from 8-Mar for the unlock option we followed.
Since 8-Mar there have actually been 2,297 deaths. The new model says there will be about 14,500 from June to end of October, which will likely prove to be just as reliable estimate…………

I hope so! Only this morning I became aware of that earlier projection, otherwise I'd have posted it along with the other data last night as it's certainly relevant. As I say, I hope the models from them, Imperial and elsewhere from last night are all miles off.

 

[Del_Bosque]

 

[Blue Maverick]

However a venue that has a licence to lose may think differently…

Has anyone lost their licence? I’ve not heard of a single place and very much doubt they will, not enough people to police it and all they gave to do is say we asked and they said they were exempt.

 

[True_Blue69]

Having re-looked at it it does seem that the Warwick model is reflecting what they think will be the ‘actual daily infections’ as opposed to the positive tests, which I suppose will be confirmed or not by the ONS data in July. They think we’re already at about 50000, so will be interesting to see.

Not only that, but the modelling for the next 2 weeks should be the 2 that are most interesting given that they are models that assume we did step 4 next Monday, which we obviously aren’t now doing, but any predicated deaths and hospitalisations will, of course, already be ‘baked in’ as Patrick Vallance is fond of saying.

By way of interest, the Warwick team produced models in February which was used by the government to plan roadmap, had between 54,000 and 60,000 deaths from 8-Mar for the unlock option we followed.
Since 8-Mar there have actually been 2,297 deaths. The new model says there will be about 14,500 from June to end of October, which will likely prove to be just as reliable estimate…………

If correct and the actual daily infections is so much higher than reported, the infection to death rate must be incredibly low, possibly lower than standard flu.