Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Anyway, there is a fair amount of good news. 2 jabs give 90% protection from the Indian variant. Unlimited crowds at weddings and wakes. (I bet the people crying on TV about dancing restrictions at weddings have never broken the speed limit). The outlook for jobs is improving and share values continue to recover.
 
Blue Maverick said:
I fucking astounds me as an island we aren’t way ahead on stopping this virus coming in, oh wait the incompetence and stupidity of this government not stopping people coming in with variants. I’m not arsed about people not getting the vaccine, if they die fuck em, I’m done now with this shit. We were told get the over 50s and vulnerable done and we would be done,they’ve moved the goalposts again next it will be anyone over the age of 10! 3 people died yesterday 3, so the whole travel, hospitality industries will be destroyed because of it, it’s ridiculous.
I get the science but science says cars are destroying the environment but we are still all driving cars and indeed more die everyday in car crashes, let’s ban them and save lives and the environment. Open up the country but ban foreign travel unless you isolate in a hotel at least we can get this country going again.
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Trying to stop the chattering classes having three or four weeks in the sun or the ski slopes is a fools errand. Far too many of of the twats work in government.
 
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M18CTID said:
So capacity crowds will be allowed for the Wimbledon finals on Centre Court - with the roof on if it pisses down - and football fans are allowed to bounce all over each other at Wembley, Hampden, etc, yet you can't dance at a wedding, and are strongly advised not to dance even if the wedding is outdoors in a big fuck off marquee.

Yep, sounds really fair and logical that!
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I don't get dancing, we weren't put on this earth to do silly things with our arms and legs. One of my mates is nicknamed "the dancing dustbinman" self explanatory, his legs start twitching at the mere hint of music, I just look on bemused at people doing the shapes, probably because I tried it once with Mrs H and I was like a tree trunk caught in a hurricane, I'm never getting married again.
 
BlueAnorak said:
If so then these predictions are from 3 weeks ago when the increase in R0 was unknown. It is now known to be 40% more infectious so a natural R0 of 5. Similar shite assumptions on vaccine and antibody effectiveness too.
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They say these are not predictions as such but projected scenarios based on various R values projected from available data to 7th June. They are careful throughout the paper not to commit to any one of the scenarios for R= 1.2, 1.5, 1.8 or 2.1 as a favoured prediction.

11. Each week, SPI-M-O combine estimates from several independent models to project the trajectory of the epidemic if no further changes in behaviour or policy take place. They represent what the trajectory might be if the epidemic continued to follow the trends seen in the latest available data up to 7th June. They are neither forecasts nor predictions
and cannot fully reflect recent changes in transmission that have not yet filtered through into surveillance data. They are published separately as SPI-M-O medium-term projections.

12. Three of these same models have further been used to explore the potential impact of a range of scenarios following changes in transmission. These scenarios assume R changes to 1.2, 1.5, 1.8, or 2.1 on 21st June5, and run for a further six weeks. These scenarios are shown on a logarithmic scale in Figure 3 (R=1.2 – green; 1.5 – blue; 1.8 – yellow; 2.1 – red) for England’s hospital admissions alongside the latest medium-term projection of current trends (grey) for comparison.
 
Folk marching down Whitehall with placards informing us that 99.97% of the population haven't died! And on that basis they want to come out of lockdown. It seems they couldn't give a fuck about those who are ill, those who have to provide medical assistance, the families of those infected. I'm alright, Boris, let's get shot of all these rather inconvenient measures - masks, red light countries, et al. Let's just get back to where we were in 2019 and fuck anything else.
 
M18CTID said:
So capacity crowds will be allowed for the Wimbledon finals on Centre Court - with the roof on if it pisses down - and football fans are allowed to bounce all over each other at Wembley, Hampden, etc, yet you can't dance at a wedding, and are strongly advised not to dance even if the wedding is outdoors in a big fuck off marquee.

Yep, sounds really fair and logical that!
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In pure mathematical terms the number of close contacts from these events is probably far lower (this is only about 5 or 6 'test events' and, even if there are 40,000 people there you're not going to be in close contact with all of them, only the ones near you) than the potentially several hundred weddings that might take place.

The optics may not be good but it is logical from a mathematical modelling point of view which is where the scientists advising the government are coming from.
 
Tim of the Oak said:
Anyway, there is a fair amount of good news. 2 jabs give 90% protection from the Indian variant. Unlimited crowds at weddings and wakes. (I bet the people crying on TV about dancing restrictions at weddings have never broken the speed limit). The outlook for jobs is improving and share values continue to recover.
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I certainly haven't because I don't drive!
 
Gremlin said:
In pure mathematical terms the number of close contacts from these events is probably far lower (this is only about 5 or 6 'test events' and, even if there are 40,000 people there you're not going to be in close contact with all of them, only the ones near you) than the potentially several hundred weddings that might take place.

The optics may not be good but it is logical from a mathematical modelling point of view which is where the scientists advising the government are coming from.
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Don't get me wrong - I get some of that but the issue with these test events for me is that none of these people will be travelling in Covid-secure bubbles to and from the venue. We had it with the League Cup Final. Only the City fans had to travel on "Covid-secure" transport, yet those fans arriving on trains were then permitted to travel on the tube to Wembley which kind of rendered the Covid-secure transport thing meaningless.
 
hammocity said:
I don't get dancing, we weren't put on this earth to do silly things with our arms and legs. One of my mates is nicknamed "the dancing dustbinman" self explanatory, his legs start twitching at the mere hint of music, I just look on bemused at people doing the shapes, probably because I tried it once with Mrs H and I was like a tree trunk caught in a hurricane, I'm never getting married again.
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Haha. Made me chuckle that.

always thought, if you watched a nightclub without Music - you’d think wtf are they doing.
 
M18CTID said:
Don't get me wrong - I get some of that but the issue with these test events for me is that none of these people will be travelling in Covid-secure bubbles to and from the venue. We had it with the League Cup Final. Only the City fans had to travel on "Covid-secure" transport, yet those fans arriving on trains were then permitted to travel on the tube to Wembley which kind of rendered the Covid-secure transport thing meaningless.
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Isnt that still a valid part of the event in theory? when your looking for how many people are effected by an event surely travel to and from counts in that calculation? I guess they must be testing both with AB groups, some in covid-secure travel and others not. will be able to then see a view on how many catch it in the travel vs at the event?
 

All over-18s in England should be able to book jab by end of week - NHS boss​

All adults in England should be able to book their Covid-19 jab "by the end of this week", NHS England's chief executive says.
Speaking at the NHS Confederation annual conference, Sir Simon Stevens predicts the national booking service will be open to all adults aged 18 and above by the end of the week.
He says the health service will "finish the job" of the Covid vaccination programme to the "greatest extent possible" over the next four weeks; adding that by 19 July, it aims to have offered two thirds of adults in England both vaccine doses.
He cites today's extension of the rollout to 23 and 24-year-olds as evidence of the "great strides" the health service is making towards this goal.
He adds: "Of course, vaccine supply continues to be constrained, so we're pacing ourselves at precisely the rate of which we're getting that extra vaccine supply between now and July 19."
 
Boris is trying to pass this as a win for the wedding industry, it simply isn't!

I can have my full guestlist at my wedding now, which is great. But they can't fucking do anything after they arrive! It's a load of fear-mongering bollocks at this point.
 
Manchester33 said:
Boris is trying to pass this as a win for the wedding industry, it simply isn't!

I can have my full guestlist at my wedding now, which is great. But they can't fucking do anything after they arrive! It's a load of fear-mongering bollocks at this point.
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really feel for you mate

personally a full wedding but not allowed to dance etc just doesn't feel right
 
Healdplace said:
I do not get this at all, That prediction of a wave has to be a worst case scenario if the virus evolves and evades the vaccine. Not any kind of extrapolation from what we know now and are seeing now.

At the current rate with which people are dying we would need multiple times as many cases daily as we were getting in January to get close to matching the hundreds of deaths a day we were getting then.

If they are seriously predicting 200.000 cases a day - say - for the 4% who the data says might still be hospitalisd after being vaccinated then why was that not made clear? It would have done the trick in making people respect the decision and take seriously the precautions.

I do not see how those figures remotely stack up against the vaccine data as of now or what we have seen from the Indian vatiant doing its worst in Bolton and having produced hospitalisations in the dozens not even the hundreds and deaths in single figures.

And if they really think we are facing a wave of hundreds of thousads of cases a day we would surely be in a proper lockdown not half way to being fully open.

What am I missing?
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I said a few weeks ago that these experts are clinging on to relevancy at the tail end of this pandemic.

The figures are so far off the mark that it discredits all their work over the past 16 months.


The Tories will lap it up as they know the numbers will be considerably lower. They will use it as propaganda to prove how well they coped with the pandemic. Loads of gormless fuckers will vote them back in at the next election.
 
BlueHammer85 said:
really feel for you mate

personally a full wedding but not allowed to dance etc just doesn't feel right
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It's not a wedding if people aren't allowed to dance. We're basically asking 100+ people to come and sit in a mask all day and not talk to interact with anyone other than their own household. What's the point?

And I'm paying tens of thousands of pounds for that privilege....
 
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