Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Greater Manchester

Weekly total cases:-




Tameside 450, Oldham 463, Rochdale 513, Trafford 547, Stockport 609, Bury 633, Bolton 792, Salford 870. Wigan 928, Manchester 1904.



Manchester heading for triple Bolton now and Salford and Wigan both aheadof Bolton with Wigan's pretty terrible numbers lately making it now second to Manchester in weekly cases ahead of Salford and closing in on four figures.

Stockport's good few days see it fall back even on a not so good day and now behind Bury and closer to the best boroughs than the ones up front and scoring big.

Nobody now under 450 so we need to see some others going down not up.
 
So 2.1m over 50s yet to have a single dose of vaccine- Financial Times
 
To ask an obvious question why is the North West faring much worse than anywhere in the country on the positive tests?
Also where I live Trafford our rates are still awful yet the people are getting vaccines all the time.
What am I missing,?
 
BLUEMATT23 said:
To ask an obvious question why is the North West faring much worse than anywhere in the country on the positive tests?
Also where I live Trafford our rates are still awful yet the people are getting vaccines all the time.
What am I missing,?
Click to expand...

Delta introduced in higher quantities to the North West by travellers coming from India or affected areas?

Starts there (Bolton) and spreads outwards, it'll also likely start declining there before anywhere else too but that would be dependant on a number of factors. Scotland in a similar boat to the North West.
 
GM Weekly Pop Data after today:~

Borough / Pop Today / 7 days ago / up or down wk to wk/ Testing is % of local population who have tested positive for Covid over past year.

As ever with Pop going up is bad, going down good - the higher the number the better or worse depending on direction moving. The Pop is total cases in past week versus 100,000 POPulation to even out the comparison versus size and expected cases based on numbers living there.


Manchester 344 / 272 / UP 72 Testing positive 10.6%

Salford 336 / 298 / UP 38 Testing positive 9.9%

Bury 332 / 238 / UP 94 Testing positive 9.9%

Wigan 283 / 210 / UP 73 Testing positive 9.6%

Bolton 276 / 287 / DOWN 11 Testing positive 11.2%

Trafford 231 / 184 / UP 47 Testing positive 7.7%

Rochdale 230 / 186 / UP 44 Testing positive 10.3 %

Stockport 208 / 227 / DOWN 19 Testing positive 7.8%

Tameside 199 / 141 / UP 58 Testing positive 8.7%

Oldham 195 / 151 / UP 44 Testing positive 10.3%




Manchester back on top and Bury now also in the 300s but Bolton now falls below a fast rising Wigan too to just the fifth highest Pop Score in GM. And Wigan almost knocked it down to 5th and may well do so tomorrow.

Stockport's good run almost took them below 200.

Trafford and Rochdale were both reined in a bit by Stockport even though its numbers went up a little today.

Stockport now has the best GM record and is falling by more than Bolton - the only other borough that is going down not up rigtht now.


Stockpirt, Oldham and Tameside close together aiming for best score though around 200 is a bit too high for that to be called best right now.

Stockport's success has also see it eat into Trafford's recent 200 lead for overall Pop Score across the pandemic.

Trafford is still easily top on 7674 but Stockport cut the gap again today to 158 and is on 7832,

Bolton unsurprisingly now has the highest GM Pop Score on 11, 198. Nobody else is yet in the 11,000 club with it

However, there are 3 boroughs in the 10,000 club - Manchester on 10, 617. Rochdale on 10, 313 and Oldham having quite a scrap to match its numbers on 10, 311. Truly neck and neck there.

Salford and Bury are in a race to be the next to join the 10 K club - on track to be members within the next couple of days . Salford up 53 to 9946. Bury up 57 on 9941. Hopefully it will take longer but if either has a worse day tomorrow than today they will enter the 10K club.

Wigan on current numbers at 9608 is maybe two weeks away, Though at the 59 it rose today that might be one.

Trafford and Stockport are obviously a long way off and may never get there before we stop counting with luck. Tameside possibly too - at 8650 well ahead of those two and probably also not getting there this side of winter anyway.
 
BLUEMATT23 said:
To ask an obvious question why is the North West faring much worse than anywhere in the country on the positive tests?
Also where I live Trafford our rates are still awful yet the people are getting vaccines all the time.
What am I missing,?
Click to expand...
I suspect Trafford with the Trafford Centre attracts lot of young people from out of the area and so it tends to spike at periods where this is popular.

It is nowhere near the worst in GM as the daily Pop Score list above shows.

Also look at the testing positive number. 7.7% is the lowest in GM. Meaning less people have had symptomatic cases in the past 15 months. So there are more targets for Delta.

Much the same applies to Stockport. But because of the vaccinations protecting the most vulnerable the impact locally in Trafford and Stockport in hospitalisations is not as dramatic as tests suggest (cases are a relatively less important number now post vaccine) and they also find it easier to curb because of that base level vaccinated.

But it is no surprise that where young people not yet double jabbed meet to eat, drink, shop etc in the sun that Delta will spread.

Hence Manchester - whose vaccination numbers are far worse than Trafford's - is far worse than Trafford in cases.
 
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BLUEMATT23 said:
To ask an obvious question why is the North West faring much worse than anywhere in the country on the positive tests?
Also where I live Trafford our rates are still awful yet the people are getting vaccines all the time.
What am I missing,?
Click to expand...
Greater Manchester started with bouncy castle parties and raves. Many posters have said people have given up on precautions. This and demographics must be part of the answer
 
Healdplace said:
I suspect Trafford with the Trafford Centre attracts lot of young people from out of the area and so it tends to spike at periods where this is popular.

It is nowhere near the worst in GM as the daily Pop Score list above shows.

Also look at the testing positive number. 7.7% is the lowest in GM. Meaning less people have had symptomatic cases in the past 15 months. So there are more targets for Delta.

Much the same applies to Stockport. But because of the vaccinations protecting the most vulnerable the impact locally in Trafford and Stockport in hospitalisations is not as dramatic as tests suggest (cases are a relatively less important number now post vaccine) and they also find it easier to curb because of that base level vaccinated.

But it is no surprise that where young people not yet double jabbed meet to eat, drink, shop etc in the sun that Delta will spread.

Hence Manchester - whose vaccination numbers are far worse than Trafford's - is far worse than Trafford in cases.
Click to expand...
The worry must be if this variant beats the vaccine
We will be fucked if that happens.
 
Blue Matt - look at the heat map for Trfford on Gov Uk

It will shpw you WHO is catching it in Trafford.

You will see almost all of them are aged 16 to 29

About 4 times as many as people in their 40s

And about 10 times or more as those over 60.

Then ask what connects descending ages from 80s through 60s throuigh 40s to 15 - 19

The answer is te number of people who have been vacvinated versus not.
 
BLUEMATT23 said:
The worry must be if this variant beats the vaccine
We will be fucked if that happens.
Click to expand...
Hence why we have not opened up and are fast tracking younger people to be vaccinated over next month.

You stop most of those catching it now to minimise risk of mutations.

We are close to that point. Nothing is certain. But so far no variant has defeated the vaccines. And if we stop people catching it and are way more caitious about stopping new variant getting here and assume they are dangerous until proven otherwise not safe until proven dangerous then we will be fine.
 
splinter said:
No surprise, two women neighbours over the road not having it..
Click to expand...
I assume there is greater context to that that we are not aware of about their thoughts and behaviours exhibited to you over time because the only descriptiveness you have given is that they are women.
 
GM VACCINE UPDATE:


Latest Vaccine Update by Population Percentage for 10 GM boroughs

Borough/ First Dose / Both Doses - TODAY V YESTERDAY



BOLTON 74.4% / 52.3 % V 74.2 / 52.0%

BURY 75.2% / 54.1% V 75.0% / 53.8%

MANCHESTER 55.7% / 33.3% V 55.6% / 33.0%

OLDHAM 69.3% / 50.5% V 69.0% / 50.2%

ROCHDALE 71.6% / 49.7% V 71.5% / 49.2%

SALFORD 62.5 % / 42. 1% V 62.2% / 41.9%

STOCKPORT 78.4% / 57.6% V 78.2% / 57.3%

TAMESIDE 73.6% / 53.5% V 73.5% / 52.8%

TRAFFORD 75.6% / 54.6% V 75.5% / 54.2%

WIGAN 77.6% / 56.5% V 77.2% / 56.2%
 
Healdplace said:
Hence why we have not opened up and are fast tracking younger people to be vaccinated over next month.

You stop most of those catching it now to minimise risk of mutations.

We are close to that point. Nothing is certain. But so far no variant has defeated the vaccines. And if we stop people catching it and are way more caitious about stopping new variant getting here and assume they are dangerous until proven otherwise not safe until proven dangerous then we will be fine.
Click to expand...
Hope you're right. But sadly I fully expect a September lockdown.
 
That gulf between Stockport and Manchester on vaccinations yawns wider and has to be a factor in the cases differential.

22.7% more single jabbed in Stockport and 24. 3% more double jabbed.

Why are no local politicians all over this?
 
ayrshire_blue said:
Delta introduced in higher quantities to the North West by travellers coming from India or affected areas?
Click to expand...

As I have said before on this thread, I would think it likely many more from London would have gone to India as more than 500k of people with Indian heritage live in London. It's the largest ethno-national population in London. That's twice the size of Bolton MBCs total population.

There must be other factors involved.
 
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