Coronavirus (2021) thread

[RobMCFC]

i don't think Pubs are anywhere near as close as the transmission currently taking place in households with the Euros. Millions of households with 5-10-20 people all mixing and drinking

Well, there is that as well, but that’s just an extension of the same problem. Loads of people crowding together inside. But my point still stands - the government are prioritising drinking over family holidays.

 

[BlueAnorak]

It doesn't, I'm afraid.

If cases catch up with vaccinations in terms of yielding immunity, that's maybe 100,000 cases daily.

Current hospitalisation rate ~5%.

5,000 hospitalisations a day.

Mostly a need for oxygen for a couple of days at which point they are discharged.

 

[Healdplace]

19 all settings deaths

16, 135 cases - big jump up sadly even in England. Was 9055 last Wednesday. Nearly doubled.

Highest number since 6 February.

 

[Healdplace]

21 June (Monday) by specimen date England was at its highest cases recorded in one day since 15 February.

11,463

There were 12, 765 cases in England reported today.Up 3669 in one day.

Also up from 7642 last Wednesday - a rise of 5123 in the week - biggest in one go for a good while.

Even more worrying there were almost 200,000 FEWER tests today than yesterday so a huge jump up in positivity.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

Fuck all actually but you let me know when unvaccinated healthy people start suffering in large numbers. Meanwhile just wait for Boris to tell you when you next need to stay in too.

Eminent virologist are we? or just another facebook expert ?

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

19 all settings deaths

16, 135 cases - big jump up sadly even in England.

Well looks like we are on our way to 4000 admissions a day and back to square one. Pretty depressing stuff.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

The last I saw on this, less than 1 in 25 hospitalisations were in people who'd had 1 dose and even less for double doses.

For Delta ~10% are double dosed.

According to the agency’s latest variant technical briefing,3 as of 14 June a total of 806 people had been admitted to hospital with the delta variant of the virus—an increase of 423 since last week. Among these cases, 527 people were unvaccinated and only 84 of the 806 had received both doses.

From the BMJ

Covid-19: Cases of delta variant rise by 79%, but rate of growth slows

Almost all new cases of covid-19 are the delta variant but new data suggests that while case numbers are increasing, the rate of growth is slower than a week ago. Public Health England’s weekly covid-19 variant cases data1 show that numbers of the delta variant in the UK have risen by 33 630...

www.bmj.com

You can't infer efficacy directly from that, as there are too many confounding factors, but current central estimate (with considerable uncertainty) is 94%.

Public library - UKHSA national - Knowledge Hub

khub.net

 

[Craig]

Eminent virologist are we? or just another facebook expert ?

As I said earlier I’ve nothing against vaccines but think people should be free to choose. Certainly wouldn’t believe everything bent governments all over the show are peddling.

 

[zerox]

Phillipines are going jail people if they don't get the vac.

 

[splinter]

21 June (Monday) by specimen date England was at its highest cases recorded in one day since 15 February.

11,463

There were 12, 765 cases in England reported today.Up 3669 in one day.

Also up from 7642 last Wednesday - a rise of 5123 in the week - biggest in one go for a good while.

Even more worrying there were almost 200,000 FEWER tests today than yesterday so a huge jump up in positivity.

Here we go again..

 

[splinter]

Phillipines are going jail people if they don't get the vac.

Bad ass those jails out there

 

[Great Uncle Kip]

Here we go again..

We are utterly screwed unfortunately. The Government have yet again put cash above protecting its citizens and we are now set to pay that price.

 

[splinter]

550,000+ jabs yesterday, surely we're going to break the link soon

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Well looks like we are on our way to 4000 admissions a day and back to square one. Pretty depressing stuff.

It is bad, and rather depressing, but definitely not back to square one.

The vaccination programme will reduce R, and infections will reduce it further. It's near impossible for the current exponential growth to continue for more than a short number of weeks, I think.

And there will be far less hospitalisations and deaths than last time.

 

[denislawsbackheel]

16,135 cases
19 deaths

 

[BlueHammer85]

deaths could be at Peak come 19th July.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

As I said earlier I’ve nothing against vaccines but think people should be free to choose. Certainly wouldn’t believe everything bent governments all over the show are peddling.

Ah a conspiracy theorist. No point in us having any further conversation.

 

[Craig]

Ah a conspiracy theorist. No point in us having any further conversation.

Not really a conspiracy to think governments particularly ours are bent is it? Just look at how contracts were handed out last year. So no I’m not a conspiracy theorist or a anti-vaxxer

 

[BlueAnorak]

We will never get rid of covid19 , Like Sars and murs it will be here for ever , hopefully it will just mutate until its no longer a big threat.

But we do get rid of SARS and MERS - the reason being people are not asymptomatic when they catch it - The reason why SARS-2 is such a nasty virus.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

deaths could be at Peak come 19th July.

I would guess cases will probably not peak much before about then, and possibly later - it's unlikely to suddenly turn around from regular week on week 30-40% case rises we've had for some time now.

Deaths lag significantly behind cases, so unless cases have peaked within a week or so, deaths will almost certainly still be rising on the 19th July.

But predictions are hard, especially about the future, and vaccination could make a bigger difference to deaths, and maybe cause a very rapid cases turnaround. Feels like clutching at straws though.